The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reached a $172,000 settlement with Gabriel Perez, a former teleprompter operator for the White House, resolving allegations of insider trading in prediction markets. The settlement addresses claims that Perez exploited advance knowledge of presidential speeches to profit from trades on platforms such as Kalshi.
According to the CFTC’s order, Perez allegedly misappropriated confidential government information between December 2025 and February 2026. His role provided him with access to speeches before they were delivered, allowing him to place trades on prediction markets tied to specific words or phrases President Donald Trump might use. The agency stated that Perez was able to wager on outcomes he already knew, generating more than $107,500 in profits.
Under the terms of the settlement, Perez must disgorge $107,539.02 in gains and pay a $65,000 civil penalty. He has also agreed to a three-year ban from trading on CFTC-regulated markets. The regulator noted that the penalty was significantly discounted under a new cooperation policy, citing Perez’s “exemplary assistance with the investigation.” The exchange operator Kalshi also assisted with the case.
The CFTC views this order as a clear example of the insider-trading risks associated with prediction markets, which have seen a surge in popularity and volume. The agency asserts its authority over such event contracts, considering them swaps subject to insider-trading rules.
This case follows similar incidents that have drawn regulatory attention to prediction markets. Earlier this year, a U.S. soldier faced charges related to alleged trading on Polymarket, with gains reportedly exceeding $400,000, tied to an operation that ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. In March, a video editor for the popular YouTuber MrBeast was reportedly fired amid an insider-trading probe by Kalshi.
In response to mounting scrutiny and potential misuse of non-public information, platforms like Kalshi have been implementing new safeguards and working through suspicious-activity reviews. Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on real-world outcomes, are drawing billions in volume, increasing their visibility and regulatory oversight.
The CFTC’s action underscores its expectation that event contracts will fall under its purview, reinforcing the application of insider-trading rules to these evolving financial instruments. The settlement with Perez highlights the ongoing challenges in regulating these markets and the potential for individuals with access to non-public information to exploit them.
Why This Matters
This settlement provides a concrete example of insider trading in prediction markets, underscoring the CFTC’s intent to regulate these platforms and the potential for misuse of non-public information. The case demonstrates the practical implications of regulatory actions on prediction markets and highlights the evolving framework for event contracts.
Broader Context
Source materials place the factual news in this context: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday that Gabriel Perez misappropriated confidential government information to trade “presidential mention market” contracts, event contracts that pay out based on specific words or phrases a president uses in a speech.
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