The prospects of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year are diminishing, according to TD Cowen, despite the bill’s passage through key Senate committees. While the measure successfully cleared the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, a full Senate vote—and the final approval needed to enact the bill—appears increasingly unlikely before the end of the year.
CLARITY Act Momentum Stalls
Jaret Seiberg, a managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, wrote in a Tuesday note that his team remains pessimistic about the CLARITY Act’s enactment this year. He attributes the main challenge to political hurdles, specifically whether Democrats can support the bill if it includes provisions addressing presidential conflicts of interest.
Seiberg also cautioned that Republicans could become more hesitant to advance the legislation if it requires them to vote against amendments targeting or responding to Trump-related concerns. He noted that the progress in the Senate Banking Committee earlier this month does not necessarily indicate broad bipartisan agreement. He characterized the committee’s advancement of the bill, despite objections from Democrats and banks, as shifting the debate to the full Senate rather than resolving underlying disputes.
Rising Washington Tensions
Seiberg also pointed to several Trump-related developments that he believes are complicating the political environment for the CLARITY Act. One factor is a resolved legal case involving the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The dispute led to the creation of a $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund and permanently prohibits the IRS from auditing past tax returns for Trump, his family, and related companies. Seiberg believes the fallout from this dispute will likely heighten tensions in Washington, making it more difficult to reach a consensus on legislation like the already delayed CLARITY Act.
Seiberg also cited a recent New York Times investigative report alleging that prediction markets and crypto-related interests may have influenced efforts aimed at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). He emphasized that these claims remain unconfirmed. However, he noted a response from CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who told the New York Times that the agency is focused on major wrongdoing and is not “playing favorites.”
Another factor cited in the TD Cowen note involves government financial disclosures released earlier this month. These reports indicated that approximately 3,600 stock trades were executed on Trump’s behalf during the first three months of 2026. Seiberg argued that the surrounding controversy makes it more likely that lawmakers will choose to delay action, especially as the midterm election approaches and the political calendar narrows the window for further postponements.
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