Crypto Market Plummets Amid Outflows and Geopolitical Concerns
Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn on Thursday morning, falling below $73,000 and trading at $73,260, a 3.4% decrease in the last 24 hours. This marks a six-week low for the cryptocurrency.
The price drop appears to be driven by two primary factors: escalating tensions in the Iran conflict and the largest single-day outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.
Renewed strikes and the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Iran led to a 2.5% increase in oil prices and a general decline in risk assets. The optimism from the previous weekend’s peace deal quickly dissipated.
The Bitcoin ETF landscape is particularly concerning. Tuesday saw outflows of -$733.40 million, the worst single day since January 29. Combined with Monday’s -$333.60 million, the two-day total outflow exceeds $1 billion. Eight consecutive trading days of outflows have now erased over $2.6 billion from Bitcoin ETFs since May 15.
Other major cryptocurrencies also suffered losses. Ethereum fell below $2,000 for the first time since April, trading at $1,983 and down 33% year-to-date. Even HYPE, which has been a standout performer this year with a 123% YTD increase, is down 10% today, trading at $56.44. The $6.25 billion options expiry today, with max pain at $75,000, indicates the market is currently $1,700 below max pain heading into settlement.
Broader markets also reflect the downturn, with gold down 1.4% at $4,386 and stock futures in the red, including a 0.5% drop in the Nasdaq. While the market is experiencing a widespread decline, the crypto market is feeling the effects most acutely.
Crypto IPO Wave Could Create a $1 Trillion Public Market
Jefferies anticipates a surge in crypto and blockchain-related public listings over the next two years, projecting the sector could become a $1 trillion public market within five years.
The bank released this report following its first Digital Assets Investor Conference in New York, where 35 digital asset company executives met with approximately 150 institutional investors. The discussions marked a shift from previous years, with institutional investors now focusing on integrating blockchain infrastructure into core financial systems, including tokenized money market funds, private credit, and settlement networks, rather than solely speculating on Bitcoin price.
Specifically, Jefferies is monitoring the IPO pipeline, which includes Kraken parent Payward (confidential S-1 filed, $20 billion valuation raise underway), Securitize (SEC-registered tokenization platform), Blockchain.com (S-1 filed last week), and Gemini.
Beyond crypto-native companies, the bank identifies traditional financial firms, including settlement networks and payment processors, as potential candidates for public listings tied to blockchain infrastructure build-outs. This projection comes as Ledger, ConsenSys, and other firms have delayed IPO plans due to a 75% year-to-date decrease in crypto trading volumes. Fundstrat estimates that these processes are “70-80% along the way” and ready to accelerate once markets recover.
Crypto’s Political Spending Is Shifting Republican
While Fairshake and its affiliates remain a dominant force in crypto-driven elections, several new crypto PACs have emerged with a Republican focus, potentially shifting the bipartisan energy carefully cultivated over multiple campaign cycles. The Texas primary runoffs on Tuesday highlighted this shift.
Crypto-focused political committees spent over $9 million in Texas, contributing to a series of primary victories for industry-aligned candidates across both parties. Notably, they helped oust Rep. Al Green, a vocal crypto critic, in a rare incumbent-on-incumbent primary runoff.
The new Republican focus is coming from a second layer of PACs operating alongside FairShake. Fellowship PAC, associated with Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald, spent $500,000 supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s successful challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a race FairShake’s bipartisan structure couldn’t enter. Paxton is more inclined towards crypto deregulation than Cornyn. The Winklevoss twins have also launched their own GOP-only groups.
While FairShake continues its bipartisan efforts, newer PACs are exclusively Republican, creating a redundant political layer that covers both party tracks simultaneously. They have achieved some success so far.
Google Engineer Busted for Inside Trading on Polymarket
Michele Spagnuolo, a Google security engineer, has been arrested and charged with insider trading for allegedly placing bets on Polymarket based on Google search data, according to US officials on Wednesday.
A complaint unsealed by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York alleges that Spagnuolo used “material nonpublic information” to place bets on who would appear on Google’s list of most-searched-for individuals for 2025, after Polymarket began offering these markets last fall.
Spagnuolo, 36, used the pseudonym AlphaRaccoon. He allegedly used confidential Google data to predict that singer D4vd would be named the most-searched person – a result announced publicly on December 4, 2025. He transferred $3.8 million in USDC to his Polymarket address to make the bets, and profited $1.2 million. He then moved those funds out using a swapping service and privacy tool, ultimately transferring the funds to a processor in Italy. He faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
This is the second Polymarket insider trading case the SDNY has brought this year, the first involving Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who bet on the Maduro raid he participated in.
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