XRP is currently attempting to regain the $1.15 mark following a significant downturn that saw its price plummet to its lowest point since 2024. This decline has effectively nullified months of recovery progress, leaving investors in a market environment with little immediate clarity on future direction.
Amidst this attempted rebound, an analysis by Arab Chain, which tracks trading volume on Binance, has identified a key signal within the data. This signal provides crucial context for both the recent price drop and the ongoing recovery efforts.
Volume Surge on Binance
The XRP Volume Z-Score on Binance, a metric that quantifies how current trading activity deviates from the 30-day average, recently spiked to approximately 4.5. This represents the highest reading in four months. A Z-Score of this magnitude indicates trading activity significantly exceeding the recent baseline, a phenomenon typically associated with major price events, forced liquidations, or substantial repositioning by large market participants.
However, this surge proved to be short-lived. The index rapidly retreated from its peak of 4.5 and has since fallen to around -0.70, suggesting current trading activity is now below the 30-day average. The exceptional volume spike appeared, influenced price action, and then dissipated as swiftly as it emerged.
Arab Chain’s analysis delves into what this sequence—a sharp volume surge followed by a rapid return to normal levels—reveals about the nature of XRP’s recent decline and whether the current recovery attempt possesses sufficient trading momentum to sustain prices above $1.15.
Volume Spiked While Price Fell
The Arab Chain analysis directly links the volume surge to the price decline, shedding light on the selling dynamics that drove XRP to its lowest point since 2024. The Z-Score reaching 4.5 while the price was falling towards $1.13 points to a specific market condition: elevated participant activity concentrated on selling rather than buying. This drove volume higher as transactions were executed at scale in a downward price direction.
The analytical interpretation is straightforward: a sharp increase in trading volumes coinciding with a price drop typically signals one of two scenarios. Either accelerated selling pressure from participants eager to exit at any available price, or large-scale repositioning by significant holders adjusting their XRP exposure in response to evolving market conditions. Both scenarios result in volume spikes during price declines but carry different implications for subsequent market movements.
The volatility context identified by the analysis is a forward-looking element worth monitoring. Historically, elevated volume activity accompanying sharp price movements has often been followed by continued volatility rather than immediate stabilization. The repositioning or selling that fueled the initial volume surge tends to create ripple effects as the market adjusts to the new supply and demand balance established during the high-volume session.
XRP, in its attempt to reclaim $1.15 in the wake of a 4.5 Z-Score volume event, is striving for recovery within a market structure that has recently undergone a fundamental repricing. The speed at which volume normalized below the 30-day average suggests that the exceptional activity has concluded rather than merely paused.
XRP Price Testing Fresh Lows
XRP is currently attempting to stabilize around the $1.15 level after experiencing one of its most significant corrections since the 2024 breakout. The weekly chart indicates that sellers have erased nearly all of the gains achieved in the first half of 2025, pushing the asset back towards a critical long-term support zone.
A key technical development is XRP’s test of the 200-week moving average, which is currently situated between $1.10 and $1.15. This moving average has historically served as a major trend-defining level. The current weekly candle is attempting to hold above this threshold despite the recent wave of selling pressure. A failure to hold this level would significantly weaken the broader market structure, potentially exposing XRP to a move towards the psychological $1.00 mark and possibly the $0.85–$0.90 region.
From a trend perspective, XRP remains bearish. The price is trading below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, with these averages continuing to trend downwards. The rejection from the $1.40–$1.50 area in recent weeks confirmed that sellers are still in control and that recovery attempts are being met with further selling. For bullish sentiment to return, XRP needs to reclaim $1.30 and then $1.50 to begin rebuilding momentum. Until then, the focus remains on whether XRP can defend the 200-week moving average and prevent a deeper decline below $1.10.
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