Bitcoin ETFs Kick Off October with Strong Inflows, Fueling “Uptober” Hopes
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun October with a surge in investor interest, drawing $102.7 million on Thursday and an additional $31.7 million on Friday, according to data from Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker. This marks a net inflow of $134.4 million to start the month.
A Positive Start After September’s Dip
This positive start follows a notable outflow on September 30, when the funds shed $148.7 million, breaking a nine-session streak of inflows that began on September 17. Despite this, September proved to be the second-best month for these ETFs since October 2025, with net inflows totaling $2.65 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
“Uptober” Momentum and Market Sentiment
The term “Uptober” is crypto slang referring to October’s historical performance as one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Stephen Wundke of Algoz noted to Decrypt that over the past decade, Bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October. “Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside,” Wundke stated, suggesting a prevailing optimistic sentiment.
Economic Data Boosts Risk Assets
Friday’s jobs report provided further impetus for this optimism. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Following this announcement, the CME FedWatch tool indicated a significant drop in the probability of an October interest rate hike, falling to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. A weaker labor market typically reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates, a scenario that generally benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Price Action and ETF Holdings
Bitcoin briefly touched $87,173 on Friday, narrowly missing its September high of $87,354 before experiencing a pullback. By Saturday morning, it was trading at $84,786, a 0.65% decrease over the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Cumulatively, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch now stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets reaching $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt’s tracker.
Divergent Views on Future Performance
However, not all market participants are convinced of a sustained breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have placed the odds at 93% that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Upcoming Economic Indicators to Watch
Year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion, a figure impacted by substantial outflows earlier in the year. The market will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators, including September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on October 14, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on October 28.
