UpGate

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  • SEC Chair Paul Atkins Signals Upcoming Crypto Custody Rule Changes

    SEC Chair Paul Atkins Signals Upcoming Crypto Custody Rule Changes

    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is planning further regulatory changes for crypto assets, with a particular focus on custody, according to SEC Chair Paul Atkins. This initiative follows the Senate’s failure to pass the CLARITY Act last month.

    SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the agency is taking on the task of regulating crypto assets and is currently proposing a new regulatory framework specifically for the custody of these assets. While the exact details of this framework and the timing of future regulatory changes remain uncertain, the statements suggest an increased focus on regulatory scrutiny for crypto custody.

    The CLARITY Act’s non-passage in the Senate last month precedes these developments. The SEC’s proposed regulatory framework for crypto asset custody is a key element of the agency’s current approach to the sector.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that the agency is planning further regulatory changes for crypto assets, with a focus on custody. Specific details of the proposed regulatory framework for crypto asset custody.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ statements come as the agency proposes a new regulatory framework regarding the custody of crypto assets. He stressed that the SEC is taking on the crypto-regulation task after the Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act last month.

  • Base Network Growth Metrics Analyzed Amid Data Discrepancies and USDC Concentration

    Base Network Growth Metrics Analyzed Amid Data Discrepancies and USDC Concentration

    The Ethereum Layer 2 network Base, developed by Coinbase, has experienced significant net inflows and a surge in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity since the beginning of 2026. According to research data, the network has attracted approximately $4.7 billion in net inflows since January 1, 2026. This growth has coincided with a substantial increase in DeFi activity, pushing the Total Value Locked (TVL) to an all-time high.

    As of September 22, 2026, Base’s TVL reached approximately $6.2 billion. By early October 2026, this figure had grown to around $6.4 billion. The bridged value on the network also saw considerable activity, reaching $8.28 billion in early October 2026. The stablecoin market capitalization on Base is approximately $5.2 billion, with USD Coin (USDC) making up a dominant 84% of this total.

    Further analysis of bridge activity from a separate dataset indicates cumulative inflows of about $19.5 billion against outflows of approximately $18.4 billion, resulting in a net of about $1.1 billion. This figure differs from the year-to-date net inflow of $4.7 billion, highlighting a discrepancy in how these metrics are tracked or defined. The exact reasons for this discrepancy remain uncertain, suggesting that different trackers may be measuring distinct elements, such as specific bridges, varying time windows, or how native asset issuance is accounted for.

    Additionally, research data indicates that Base’s TVL has been growing faster than stablecoin inflows. This suggests that a portion of the TVL increase may be attributed to the appreciation in value of assets already present on the network, rather than solely from new deposits. The extent to which TVL growth is driven by new deposits versus asset appreciation is uncertain.

    Coinbase’s tokenized stocks also saw notable activity, with a daily trading volume of $71 million as of October 2026.

    Base operates as an Ethereum Layer 2 solution, processing transactions off the main Ethereum chain and batching them for posting back to Ethereum. This architecture aims to enhance security while reducing costs and increasing transaction speed, aligning with Coinbase’s strategy to bring on-chain activity closer to its user base.

    The significant concentration of stablecoin supply in USDC presents a potential risk. Given that USDC comprises roughly 84% of the stablecoin market cap on Base, any disruption to USDC could have a more pronounced impact on the network’s liquidity compared to networks with a more diversified stablecoin mix. This concentration is unsurprising, considering Coinbase’s co-founding of the Centre consortium with Circle, the issuer of USDC.

    In summary, Base is demonstrating robust growth in terms of inflows and DeFi activity. However, the interpretation of these metrics requires careful consideration due to discrepancies in net inflow data and the notable concentration of stablecoin assets in USDC, which warrants ongoing observation.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: Base has attracted $4. The exact reasons for the discrepancy between the $4.7 billion year-to-date net inflow figure and the $1.1 billion net from the separate bridge activity dataset.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: Base is an Ethereum Layer 2, meaning it processes transactions off Ethereum’s main chain and then posts the results back to Ethereum.

  • IMF Approves $138 Million Disbursement to El Salvador, Grants Waiver for Bitcoin Accumulation Condition

    IMF Approves $138 Million Disbursement to El Salvador, Grants Waiver for Bitcoin Accumulation Condition

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $138 million disbursement to El Salvador, granting a waiver for the country’s failure to meet a condition related to Bitcoin accumulation. The IMF Executive Board completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador’s Extended Fund Facility program on October 1, leading to the approval of the funds.

    According to the IMF, El Salvador received a waiver for not meeting a specific condition concerning its Bitcoin accumulation. The IMF cited corrective measures and renewed commitments from Salvadoran authorities as the basis for this waiver. Under the latest program commitments, El Salvador is not expected to accumulate more Bitcoin beyond documented donations.

    The IMF also stated that the government is actively working to reduce its role in Bitcoin-related activities. This includes plans to enhance transparency around public-sector crypto holdings and strengthen regulations governing crypto-asset companies. “Efforts will continue to reduce the state’s involvement in Bitcoin-related activities, strengthen crypto‑asset regulation and governance, and enhance transparency regarding public-sector crypto‑asset holdings. No further Bitcoin accumulation is envisaged beyond the documented donations,” the IMF noted.

    In line with these commitments, majority ownership and control of El Salvador’s Chivo digital wallet have been transferred to a private operator. The IMF indicated that the remaining public-sector exposure related to Bitcoin should eventually be unwound.

    The IMF’s decision comes as El Salvador’s economy has shown better-than-expected performance, attributed to improved security and stronger investor confidence. The country has also made progress in reducing fiscal imbalances, with strengthened reserve and liquidity buffers, and fiscal consolidation broadly staying on track.

    Despite these developments, the IMF highlighted that El Salvador still needs to implement further reforms to bolster public finances, rebuild external reserves, and enhance financial-sector resilience. Pension and civil service reforms, which experienced earlier delays, are also expected to move forward.

    The IMF emphasized the importance of stronger governance and greater transparency, calling for improvements in areas such as public-sector reporting, beneficial ownership disclosures, asset declarations, and anti-money laundering rules. These reforms are considered crucial for maintaining economic stability.

    El Salvador agreed to a 40-month IMF program in February 2025, which provides for total access of approximately $1.4 billion. The IMF’s review and disbursement are part of this ongoing program.

    Uncertainties remain regarding the exact timeline for the unwinding of the remaining public-sector exposure in the Chivo digital wallet and the specific details and impact of future pension and civil service reforms.

    This IMF disbursement and waiver are significant as they underscore El Salvador’s commitment to reducing its involvement in Bitcoin-related activities and strengthening its regulatory framework. The approval, despite a missed condition, highlights the IMF’s recognition of corrective measures and renewed commitments from the Salvadoran authorities, signaling a path towards greater financial stability contingent on further reforms and enhanced governance.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: The IMF Executive Board completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador’s Extended Fund Facility program, approving a $138 million disbursement. The exact timeline for the unwinding of remaining public-sector exposure in the Chivo digital wallet.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: El Salvador’s Extended Fund Facility program.

  • XRP Poised for Astonishing Year-End Surge, Predicts Claude AI

    XRP Poised for Astonishing Year-End Surge, Predicts Claude AI

    Claude AI has projected a dramatic surge for XRP by January 1, 2027, with a potential peak of $25 and a speculative “blow-off top” target of $35, contingent on a highly specific catalyst emerging for the XRP community. Currently trading at $1.49, a rise to $25 would represent an approximately 16.8-fold increase from its present value, implying a market capitalization of around $1.6 trillion, assuming a circulating supply of roughly 65 billion XRP.

    While this figure is substantial, it is not mathematically impossible within an extreme cryptocurrency mania scenario. The hypothetical catalyst identified by Claude AI involves widespread institutional adoption.

    In this speculative scenario, a major global payments consortium would announce XRP’s adoption as a neutral bridge asset. This would go beyond Ripple’s current use of XRP for specific corridors, envisioning a simultaneous commercial settlement announcement from 10 to 20 major banks and payment networks.

    Such a development would fundamentally alter the investment narrative for XRP, positioning it as an institutional “third asset” alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. The infrastructure for XRP Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) already exists, with US XRP ETFs collectively holding approximately 1.19 billion XRP, valued at around $1.77 billion, according to CoinGlass data.

    The potential for pension funds and wealth managers to allocate even a small portion of their portfolios to XRP, coupled with a significant XRP-based settlement initiative from Ripple, could be transformative.

    If financial institutions began maintaining substantial XRP liquidity reserves for cross-border settlements, the prevailing sentiment would shift from “XRP could be useful” to “XRP liquidity is essential.” This could ignite a significant price surge driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), ETF inflows, and institutional buying, rather than a gradual appreciation.

    Technical Outlook

    Despite the bullish predictions, the current chart does not yet reflect a trajectory towards $25. XRP is trading around $1.49, with its 50-day moving average near $1.497 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approximately 47.5, indicating a neutral rather than overbought condition.

    This neutral stance is, in fact, a prerequisite for constructing a speculative parabolic scenario. XRP has been consolidating around the $1.50 mark. The immediate technical challenge involves reclaiming and sustaining levels between $1.50 and $1.55, followed by a decisive breakout above the previous major resistance zone.

    Following this, key price levels to watch would be $2, the all-time high of $3.65, and the psychologically significant $5 mark. A firm break above $3.65 would be particularly noteworthy, propelling XRP into genuine price discovery territory where traditional resistance fades, and factors like Fibonacci extensions, market-cap comparisons, and momentum become more influential.

    In the most optimistic scenario, a breakout above approximately $5, followed by a successful retest, could generate reflexive momentum propelling XRP towards $10, $15, and eventually beyond $20 at a pace that conventional valuation models would not predict.

    XRP has maintained support near $1.47, but a move to $25 would necessitate buyers overcoming significant resistance and establishing sustained upward momentum. This represents a substantial upside potential, not an unlimited trajectory.

    Emerging Infrastructure Projects

    For investors looking beyond large-cap cryptocurrencies, early-stage infrastructure projects offer a different risk-reward profile and a less extensive price history.

    LiquidChain ($LIQUID), a Layer 3 project, is positioning itself as “The Cross-Chain Liquidity Layer,” aiming to consolidate liquidity from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana within a single execution environment.

    Its key features include a Unified Liquidity Layer, Single-Step Execution, Verifiable Settlement, and a Deploy-Once Architecture, allowing developers to deploy applications once and access all three major ecosystems.

    The project’s presale is priced at $0.014963, having already raised $980,000. Additionally, a staking offering with an annual percentage yield (APY) of 1100% is available exclusively to presale participants.

  • Trump Taps Ex-SEC Chair Clayton for AI Initiative

    Trump Taps Ex-SEC Chair Clayton for AI Initiative

    Trump Taps Former SEC Chief Clayton to Lead AI Initiative

    President Donald Trump has announced the formation of a new federal task force aimed at bolstering the United States’ position in artificial intelligence, tapping Jay Clayton, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to lead the effort.

    The initiative, dubbed the “Super Intelligence Force,” was revealed by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social. Clayton, currently the Director of National Intelligence, is reportedly set to serve as the administration’s new AI czar.

    According to Trump’s post, the task force will be responsible for coordinating the federal government’s engagement with a wide range of stakeholders, including consumers, public interest groups, religious organizations, critical infrastructure providers, and AI companies.

    In addition to Clayton, the force’s leadership includes Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson, Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering Emil Michael, and Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor. The group will report directly to Trump and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.

    The announcement follows a recent gathering at the White House, which Trump described as the “Historic White House Accord on Super Intelligence.” During this meeting, leaders from major technology companies reportedly affirmed their commitments to the American public regarding AI development.

    Clayton is a well-known and often controversial figure in the financial regulatory world, particularly for his tenure at the SEC during Trump’s first term. He spearheaded the agency’s “regulation-by-enforcement” strategy in the cryptocurrency sector, initiating 57 cases against crypto firms, initial coin offerings (ICOs), and other blockchain projects.

    One of his most significant actions as SEC chair was the lawsuit filed in December 2020 against Ripple Labs, alleging the company had sold XRP as an unregistered security. This case has been cited as a precedent for subsequent legal actions brought by the SEC under Chairman Gary Gensler against other major token issuers and exchanges.

    Since leaving the SEC, Clayton’s involvement in the crypto space has continued, albeit with a different focus. In 2021, he joined One River Asset Management as a crypto adviser and also served on the advisory board of crypto custodian Fireblocks.

    Trump’s previous attempts to place Clayton in prominent legal roles include an unsuccessful effort in 2020 to appoint him to the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan while he was still SEC chairman. In 2025, Trump appointed Clayton as interim U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, where his office pursued the prosecution of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm.

    Details regarding the specific mandate and timeline for the Super Intelligence Force were not provided in Trump’s announcement.

  • Solana DEXs See $12.4B in Tokenized Stock Volume This Year

    Solana DEXs See $12.4B in Tokenized Stock Volume This Year

    Solana Dominates Tokenized Stock Trading Amidst Rapid Growth

    Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have facilitated a staggering $12.4 billion in trading volume for tokenized stocks this year, with the platform Raydium accounting for the largest portion at $6.1 billion.

    Surge in Tokenized Equity Volume

    The second quarter of 2026 saw Solana record $5.8 billion in tokenized equity DEX volume, marking a significant 114% increase from the previous quarter. During this period, Solana captured approximately 95% of global on-chain equity DEX trading activity. September 2026 alone was a banner month, generating $4.4 billion in tokenized stock DEX volume on Solana, with Raydium and Orca serving as the primary venues for this surge.

    Raydium Emerges as Key Hub

    Raydium has solidified its position as the go-to platform for this burgeoning market. Recent data indicates that it has routed over 90% of Solana’s tokenized stock DEX flows, and its cumulative volume in this category surpassed $5 billion by mid-September. Through the first half of the third quarter of 2026, Raydium processed approximately $2.3 billion in tokenized stock volume, a 40% rise compared to the preceding quarter.

    Broader Market Trends and Solana’s Share

    Across all blockchain networks, tokenized stocks generated $48.7 billion in volume over the past 12 months. Solana’s dominance is particularly evident during peak trading periods, where its share frequently exceeds 95%. Tokenized equities have also claimed over 4% of total DEX spot volume in 2026.

    xStocks Drives Significant Growth

    A key driver of this expansion is the xStocks product, developed by Backed Finance. Each xStock token is backed 1:1 by an equity share held with a custodian. By September 18, 2026, xStocks had accumulated over $6 billion in cumulative trading volume on Solana, representing 54% of all tokenized stock volume in Solana’s history.

    Advantages of On-Chain Trading

    The 24/7 nature of DEXs offers a distinct advantage over traditional stock markets, allowing traders to react to market news instantaneously, even on weekends, without waiting for traditional market opening hours.

    Evolving Regulatory Landscape

    This growth is occurring against a backdrop of evolving regulations. A recent SEC innovation exemption aims to streamline compliant on-chain trading. While Solana is a frontrunner, other blockchains like BNB Chain with its bStocks offering and Robinhood Chain are also vying for a share of the on-chain equity trading market.

    Ecosystem Concentration and Custody Concerns

    The concentration of activity, with Raydium handling over 90% of flows and xStocks representing 54% of historical volume, highlights the ecosystem’s efficiency but also its dependence on a limited number of participants. Furthermore, the custody model for tokenized stocks warrants attention. Tokens backed 1:1 by custodied shares are contingent on the reliability of both the custodian and the issuer, introducing counterparty risks not present in direct stock ownership.

  • Binance SAFU Fund Boasts $1.27B Bitcoin, $270M Profit

    Binance SAFU Fund Boasts $1.27B Bitcoin, $270M Profit

    Binance’s user protection fund now holds over $1.27 billion in Bitcoin, including approximately $270 million in unrealized profit.

    SAFU Fund’s Bitcoin Holdings Swell

    The fund, known as SAFU (Secure Asset Fund for Users), was established by Binance to safeguard customers against significant operational failures, such as cyberattacks.

    In mid-February 2026, Binance shifted its strategy, converting approximately $1 billion worth of stablecoins into 15,000 Bitcoin. The acquisition concluded on February 12 with a final substantial purchase of 4,545 BTC. At the time of this transaction, Bitcoin was trading around $67,000, valuing the entire Bitcoin allocation at roughly $1.005 billion.

    By early May 2026, as Bitcoin’s price surpassed $81,000, the SAFU fund’s value had grown to over $1.2 billion. At this juncture, unrealized gains were estimated at approximately $217 million. The fund’s holdings were subsequently reported to exceed $1.27 billion, with paper profits reaching about $270 million.

    Transparency and Safeguards

    Binance has made the fund’s wallet address public: 1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD. This allows anyone to monitor its balance on-chain.

    The exchange has committed to conducting regular audits of the fund. Furthermore, Binance has implemented a “top-up” mechanism: if the fund’s market value drops below $800 million, Binance will replenish it to reach $1 billion.

    Fund’s History and Purpose

    SAFU is not a new initiative; Binance launched it in July 2018, initially funded by 10% of trading fees. The fund has been utilized previously to cover user losses stemming from security incidents, including a $40 million hack in 2019.

    Binance has characterized the 2026 conversion as a reflection of its long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The company cited Bitcoin’s transparency, auditability, and its potential as a hedge against inflation and counterparty risk.

    For Binance users, the current fund value of over $1.27 billion surpasses the initial $1 billion commitment. The fund’s value now fluctuates with Bitcoin’s price, with the $800 million threshold serving as a critical safety net. The 15,000 BTC held as a long-term reserve is, in principle, not intended for sale during typical market volatility.

    Binance’s strategic move, acquiring Bitcoin near $67,000 and witnessing its rise above $81,000 by May, has resulted in substantial paper gains. Observers will likely monitor the wallet balance, the fund’s reported value against the $800 million floor, and the adherence to Binance’s promised audit schedule.

  • Bitcoin’s Q4 Outlook: Key Factors and Uncertainties Ahead

    Bitcoin’s Q4 Outlook: Key Factors and Uncertainties Ahead

    Bitcoin’s trajectory in the fourth quarter is poised to be influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, market dynamics, and historical trends, analysts suggest. While the cryptocurrency concluded the third quarter with a significant surge, the outlook for Q4 is characterized by uncertainty rather than a not assured continuation of its recent price movement.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: Bitcoin experienced a significant recovery in the third quarter, closing with a 43% surge after a mid-year dip. Whether Q4 will simply extend Q3’s pace.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the market analysis in this context: Bitcoin enters the final quarter of the year after a powerful recovery in the third quarter, but analysts warn against expecting another straight-line rally.

    Q3 Recovery and Catalysts

    The third quarter marked a notable recovery for Bitcoin, which had dipped below $58,000 at its start. The cryptocurrency rebounded, breaking above $80,000 in mid-August and ultimately closing the quarter with a 43% increase. Analysts like Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst, described this period as both a recovery phase and a notable move milestone. A key catalyst identified for this rally was the US Treasury’s increased long-end bond buyback operations in August, which helped Bitcoin jump by 7% on August 19 and surge by over 20% in the subsequent days. Furthermore, spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive, reaching a year-to-date green status, and subdued perpetual funding suggested the rally was driven more by spot demand than excessive leverage, Kalchev added.

    Macroeconomic Variables: The Federal Reserve

    However, analysts warn against expecting a straight-line rally in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve is identified as the biggest variable. While a weaker-than-expected US jobs report and a softer core PCE reading have reduced immediate pressure for additional tightening, some analysts, such as Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, still anticipate a potential 25 basis point Fed rate hike on October 28, which would place the target range at 4.00%-4.25%. This potential tightening could influence market liquidity and Bitcoin’s performance.

    Market Liquidity and Institutional Activity

    Treasury market liquidity is another critical factor. The US Treasury’s bond buyback operations in August were seen as a significant driver of Bitcoin’s Q3 rally, and ongoing liquidity conditions will be closely watched. Alex Kozenko, CMO at WhiteBIT, emphasized focusing on liquidity, institutional activity, and the overall macroeconomic environment in the coming months. The market structure itself has evolved, with increased institutional participation and the influence of regulated investment products becoming more prominent, Kozenko noted.

    Historical Performance and Technical Levels

    Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to finish the fourth quarter higher in nine of the past 15 years. However, the median gains during this period are around 9%, with larger average gains being skewed by exceptional years like 2013 and 2017. This historical data suggests that while Q4 has often been positive, significant gains are not guaranteed, and volatility remains a possibility.

    From a technical perspective, key price levels are being monitored. According to Zhang, $87,500 remains a crucial obstacle. A break above this level could increase the likelihood of a short squeeze. Conversely, she identified the $82,000-$82,500 support range as a key downside zone, and a loss of this support potentially accelerating a move below $80,000.

    Geopolitical Risks and Conclusion

    Geopolitical developments also present a layer of uncertainty. Analysts warn that these events could complicate the market picture, particularly if energy prices continue to fuel inflation. The confluence of these factors—Federal Reserve policy, market liquidity, institutional flows, historical trends, key price levels, and geopolitical risks—creates a complex and uncertain environment for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to monitor these elements closely as the year concludes.

  • Bitcoin ETFs See $134 Million Inflow on ‘Uptober’ Start

    Bitcoin ETFs See $134 Million Inflow on ‘Uptober’ Start

    Bitcoin ETFs Kick Off October with Strong Inflows, Fueling “Uptober” Hopes

    U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun October with a surge in investor interest, drawing $102.7 million on Thursday and an additional $31.7 million on Friday, according to data from Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker. This marks a net inflow of $134.4 million to start the month.

    A Positive Start After September’s Dip

    This positive start follows a notable outflow on September 30, when the funds shed $148.7 million, breaking a nine-session streak of inflows that began on September 17. Despite this, September proved to be the second-best month for these ETFs since October 2025, with net inflows totaling $2.65 billion, according to SoSoValue data.

    “Uptober” Momentum and Market Sentiment

    The term “Uptober” is crypto slang referring to October’s historical performance as one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Stephen Wundke of Algoz noted to Decrypt that over the past decade, Bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October. “Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside,” Wundke stated, suggesting a prevailing optimistic sentiment.

    Economic Data Boosts Risk Assets

    Friday’s jobs report provided further impetus for this optimism. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Following this announcement, the CME FedWatch tool indicated a significant drop in the probability of an October interest rate hike, falling to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. A weaker labor market typically reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates, a scenario that generally benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin’s Price Action and ETF Holdings

    Bitcoin briefly touched $87,173 on Friday, narrowly missing its September high of $87,354 before experiencing a pullback. By Saturday morning, it was trading at $84,786, a 0.65% decrease over the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Cumulatively, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their launch now stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets reaching $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt’s tracker.

    Divergent Views on Future Performance

    However, not all market participants are convinced of a sustained breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have placed the odds at 93% that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026.

    Upcoming Economic Indicators to Watch

    Year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion, a figure impacted by substantial outflows earlier in the year. The market will be closely watching upcoming economic indicators, including September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on October 14, and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting on October 28.

  • Near Intents Recovers $3.8 Million After Security Incident

    Near Intents Recovers $3.8 Million After Security Incident

    Near Intents has recovered approximately $3.8 million in cryptocurrency following a security incident that disrupted its services earlier this week. The cross-chain swap service announced that the full amount was returned within a 48-hour period.

    Incident and Service Disruption
    The incident occurred on Thursday, stemming from a bug in Near Intents’ Omni deposit and withdrawal layer that interacted with its main smart contract. This vulnerability allowed an unauthorized party to drain funds, prompting Near Intents to halt its operations.

    Direct Response and Fund Recovery
    In response, the Near Intents team publicly stated they identified the party responsible and issued a 48-hour ultimatum for the return of the funds, threatening further action. The funds were returned in full on Friday, leading Near Intents to cease its investigation. Near Intents has stated that it reported the incident to law enforcement.

    Attacker’s Message and Context
    An on-chain message, shared by Near Intents CEO Alex Shevchenko on X, indicated that the individual responsible expressed remorse, stating, “We’ve returned all the funds, we were in the wrong.” The message also included a plea for the use of bug bounties instead of disrupting services.

    Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT reported that the funds were initially sent to KuCoin and subsequently bridged to Bitcoin. This incident follows a turbulent week for Near Intents, which also blocked a swap attempt valued at $50 million by a known attacker and saw the Bitwise spot NEAR ETF begin trading days after the incident. Near Intents has processed over $30 billion in swaps across 35 blockchains.

    Remaining Uncertainties
    While the incident was resolved quickly, uncertainties remain regarding the specific technical details of the bug and the precise methods of fund recovery beyond the ultimatum and the attacker’s on-chain communication. The identity of the attacker also remains unconfirmed by third parties.

    Near Intents has pledged to compensate users in full for any losses incurred during the service disruption.

    Why This Matters

    This update details a security incident where a bug in Near Intents’ Omni deposit and withdrawal layer interacting with its main smart contract allowed an unauthorized party to siphon approximately $3.8 million. The specific bug that was associated with the incident.

    Broader Context

    Near Intents is a cross-chain swap service.