Exchange Outflows of XRP Surge, Evoking Memories of August Rally
Data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant surge in daily XRP outflows from exchanges, with transactions of 1 million tokens or more exceeding 320 million. This development is particularly noteworthy, according to analyst Xaif Crypto, as a similar spike in August was followed by a more than 42% increase in XRP’s price.
Xaif Crypto identified Binance as the primary driver of this recent outflow, with Coinbase, Upbit, Bybit, and Bitget also showing substantial movements. Bitget recently experienced a $387 million breach.
“The last time we saw a spike like this, in August, XRP rocketed from $1.05 to $1.50,” the trader commented.
Analyst Amr Taha provided a closer look at Binance’s activity. The exchange’s XRP reserves increased from approximately 2.60 billion to 2.70 billion tokens between September 13 and 27. However, by September 30, these reserves had fallen to 2.647 billion, indicating an outflow of roughly 57 million XRP, or 2.1%, within three days. This outflow represented more than half of the earlier accumulation. Taha suggested that a sustained decline in exchange reserves could lead to fewer tokens available for spot trading, potentially easing selling pressure.
Leverage Declines Amidst Outflows
Another CryptoQuant contributor, CryptoOnChain, focused on leverage, noting that it has “reduced faster than price has fallen.” They reported that Binance’s XRP open interest, which represents the value of open futures positions, dropped to $521.5 million on September 29. This was a 15.3% decrease from a six-month high of $616.1 million recorded a week prior.
During the same period, from September 24 to 29, long liquidations—forced closures of positions betting on higher prices—averaged $3.72 million per day, approximately 2.6 times the six-month daily average. Funding rates also halved, falling from 0.010 to 0.005, although leverage remains above its six-month mean of 0.169. CryptoOnChain posited that traders may have reduced their leveraged long positions before the end of the quarter rather than selling spot XRP.
“This creates conditions that historically preceded range-bound trading, as positioning is resetting while exchange supply edges higher,” the analyst explained.
Market Performance and Outlook
At the time of reporting, XRP was trading near $1.50, having gained approximately 1% over the preceding 24 hours and showing minimal movement on a weekly basis. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen a 16% rally in the last 14 days. However, its annual performance remains subdued, with a decline of over 47% in the past 12 months.
XRP concluded September with its third consecutive month of gains, adding around 8% to its value. During this period, spot XRP exchange-traded funds saw net inflows of over $121 million, bringing cumulative net inflows to nearly $1.8 billion. These funds have not experienced a down week since early July.
Looking ahead to October, the month has historically presented challenges for XRP. Only five of the last 13 Octobers have finished in positive territory for the token. The most recent positive October was in 2023, with a 16.5% gain, which was followed by a 16.7% loss in 2024 and a nearly 12% drop last year, following a significant sell-off on October 10.
