Bitcoin Price Likely to Fall Further, Historical Data Suggests

Bitcoin Price May Not Have Bottomed, According to Analyst

Crypto analyst Chain Mind suggests that Bitcoin’s price has not yet reached its lowest point, citing historical data. The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin has never bottomed without touching the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 300.

In a post on X, Chain Mind indicated that a bottom is unlikely without first touching the EMA300. He noted that in 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin touched the weekly EMA300 before the cycle low. Specifically, Bitcoin’s bottom came 10% below the EMA in 2020 and 15% in 2022.

The analyst noted that in the current cycle, Bitcoin bounced from $60,000 without reaching the EMA, implying the true bottom is yet to come. He added that if the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could drop to around $58,000, potentially marking the final bottom of this bear cycle.

In another X post, the analyst indicated that Bitcoin’s price action is mirroring the 2022 bear market. He noted that Bitcoin had just rejected the 200MA, a move that also occurred in 2022. This confirms the bearish macro structure after Bitcoin tagged the 200D MA again at $82,000. If the 2022 pattern repeats, the leading cryptocurrency could drop 40% to 60% from the rejection point, suggesting a cycle bottom in the $50,000 to $55,000 range.

Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend after failing to hold above the $80,000 level. This decline is occurring amid bearish factors such as the US-Iran war, rising inflation, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Bitcoin’s latest drop followed the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) delay in approving tokenized stocks.

Analyst Remains Bullish Despite Market Sentiment

Crypto analyst Kaleo stated that the overall plan for Bitcoin remains unchanged, despite traders on Kalshi betting against a rally to $100,000 this year. He encouraged market participants to adopt a more bullish outlook.

Kaleo predicts a retest in the lower $70,000 range, followed by a rebound to between $80,000 and $90,000, and a period of consolidation during the summer. Subsequently, the analyst anticipates Bitcoin will rally above $100,000 and reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the fall and winter. The CLARITY Act’s potential passage could trigger a significant rally for the leading cryptocurrency.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $75,400, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.