US prosecutors have charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, also known online as ‘AlphaRaccoon,’ with allegedly using confidential internal Google search data to generate approximately $1.2 million in profits through bets placed on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
Charges Filed
According to a criminal complaint unsealed in the Southern District of New York, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed nonpublic “Year in Search 2025” data from Google’s internal systems. He then used this information to trade on Google-related markets on Polymarket before the results were publicly released.
Prosecutors have charged him with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a parallel civil complaint, accusing him of insider trading violations under the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing states that Google maintains strict confidentiality over its “Year in Search” rankings because the annual campaign is commercially valuable and designed around a coordinated public reveal intended to generate media attention, user engagement, and advertising demand.
Alleged Scheme
Investigators stated that Spagnuolo had access to a Google internal software tool containing confidential trend data, which displayed a “Google Confidential” warning banner. Authorities allege that between October and December 2025, Spagnuolo used the AlphaRaccoon Polymarket account to place bets on at least 23 Google-related prediction markets. These included contracts tied to the “#1 Searched Person on Google this year” and “Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025.”
The complaint states that after reviewing Google’s internal data on October 15, 2025, Spagnuolo placed trades the following day, backing Kendrick Lamar to become the top searched person of the year while simultaneously betting against Pope Leo XIV achieving the same result. Prosecutors said he continued placing trades over the following weeks using knowledge unavailable to the public.
On November 27, 2025, investigators allege that Spagnuolo again accessed confidential Google search rankings and learned that musician d4vd had overtaken Kendrick Lamar as the top trending person for the year. Roughly three hours later, the AlphaRaccoon account allegedly placed bets favoring d4vd, despite the market assigning almost no probability to that outcome at the time.
The filing states that the account risked roughly $2.75 million across Google Year in Search-related markets between October 15 and December 4, 2025. After Google publicly released its Year in Search results on December 4, prosecutors said the AlphaRaccoon account generated approximately $1.2 million in profits.
Concealment Efforts
Investigators further allege that Spagnuolo attempted to conceal the origin of the proceeds by moving crypto through multiple wallets, decentralized swapping services, and a privacy-focused transfer service.
Broader Context
The allegations against Spagnuolo come as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny over insider-style trading activity. In April, the rival platform Kalshi banned three US political candidates after discovering they had placed bets tied to their own election races. Those included Minnesota State Senator Matt Klein, Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez, and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran.
Kalshi said the trades violated exchange rules that prohibit people with direct influence over an event from trading related contracts. The platform issued fines and five-year bans.
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