Polymarket Accused of Orchestrating Fake Bets in Influencer Campaign
Crypto prediction market platform Polymarket paid dozens of creators, largely college-aged individuals, to film themselves placing simulated bets and sometimes fabricating wins on near-identical replicas of its website, according to an investigation by The Wall Street Journal published Saturday.
The newspaper reviewed 1,105 videos from 10 creators posted since December. It found that wagers were depicted in approximately 70% of these videos, and determined that none of the roughly $1.9 million in bets shown were genuine.
One clip, posted in January, shows college student George Makihara celebrating a $100,000 win on a bet that President Donald Trump would say “McDonald’s” that month. The Journal found that the footage Makihara was reacting to had been filmed two months prior. Trump did not publicly utter the word that January, and more than 50 real accounts that placed the same bet on Polymarket ultimately lost.
Creators were observed seemingly entering trades into dummy versions of the site, including one at the misspelled domain “poiymarket.com,” the Journal reported. A source familiar with the matter revealed that the dummy site had been developed by Polymarket, while other videos reviewed by the paper indicated that these sites served as test environments for the company’s engineers.
While most videos depicted fake bets being placed, across 118 videos, creators promoted nearly $900,000 in fabricated winnings on bets that would have actually resulted in losses exceeding $166,000. Creators were reportedly paid between $2,000 and $3,000 per month and instructed not to disclose the arrangement. Some only added “@polymarket partner” to their bios after inquiries from the Wall Street Journal.
Polymarket utilizes the marketing firm Virality to manage its network of “clippers,” who, according to the Journal, were only compensated if at least 60% of their audience was based in the U.S. The prediction market moved offshore in January 2022, following a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for failing to secure proper registration in the U.S. In November 2025, Polymarket received approval to re-enter the U.S. market through a CFTC-licensed exchange, Polymarket US, although its main site remains geoblocked for U.S. users.
Polymarket informed the Wall Street Journal that it is “committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets” and intends to conduct a comprehensive audit of its promotional content.
These findings complicate Polymarket’s efforts to gain mainstream credibility, as it faces opposition from state regulators in the U.S.
The CFTC, which asserts exclusive jurisdiction, has adopted a lenient approach under Chair Mike Selig. Selig has cautioned that pushing the industry offshore into “unregulated space” risks an FTX-style collapse and has criticized states for “regulating by litigation.” Many states are indeed pursuing this course, classifying event contracts as illegal gambling. Kentucky sued Polymarket and rival Kalshi this week over alleged unlicensed sports wagering, mirroring earlier actions by Nevada and Arizona.
The Trump administration has responded assertively, suing states including Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to shield prediction markets from state regulation.
Democrats have also voiced concerns. Senator Elizabeth Warren has accused the CFTC of being “steamrolled” by the industry, citing a roughly 25% reduction in its workforce and a drop in enforcement actions from 58 to 11 within a year. She has also linked favorable rulings to firms connected to President Trump and his family. Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and an advisor to both it and Kalshi. Selig has also faced bipartisan scrutiny in Congress regarding insider trading, war-related betting markets, and offshore venues like Hyperliquid.
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