Massive $11 Billion End-of-Quarter Options Expiry Could Rattle Crypto Markets
Approximately 153,500 Bitcoin options contracts, with a notional value of around $9.3 billion, are set to expire on Friday, June 26. This expiration is significantly larger than usual, coinciding with the end of the month and quarter, and could inject further volatility into already struggling spot markets.
This week has seen cryptocurrency markets plunge to nearly two-year lows, with the total market capitalization shedding over $180 billion since Monday as the bear market intensifies.
The current batch of Bitcoin options contracts exhibits a put/call ratio of 0.73, indicating a slight dominance of sellers of long (call) contracts over sellers of short (put) contracts. The “max pain” level, a theoretical price at which most options would expire worthless, is estimated at $72,000. This is approximately $13,000 above current spot prices, suggesting that the majority of these contracts are likely to expire out-of-the-money.
Open interest (OI), representing the total value or number of outstanding Bitcoin options contracts, remains highest at the $80,000 strike price on Deribit, totaling $1.4 billion. However, short sellers still hold $1 billion in OI at the $60,000 strike price. According to Coinglass, total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been on an upward trend over the past week, reaching $34 billion.
Deribit observed that Bitcoin is heading into this expiration well below its $72,000 max pain level. The exchange also noted that while max pain is a closely watched metric, recent quarterly expirations have shown limited evidence of a consistent “pinning” effect on prices leading up to settlement.
Derivatives provider Greeks Live reported this week that puts continue to command a significant premium over calls across all major tenors. This suggests persistent demand for near-term downside protection, while pricing for longer-dated options remains relatively stable.
Q2 Options Expiry Alert
At 08:00 UTC on Friday, approximately $10.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are scheduled to expire on Deribit. This marks the largest expiry event on Deribit so far in 2026.
In addition to the substantial Bitcoin options expiry, roughly 1 million Ethereum contracts are also set to expire, with a notional value of $1.6 billion. For Ethereum, the max pain level is $2,000, and the put/call ratio stands at 0.54. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is currently low, at around $5.7 billion.
Cumulatively, the total notional value of crypto options expiring this week reaches approximately $11 billion, positioning it as one of the largest expiry events of the year.
Spot markets have experienced a further 3% decline today, reaching their lowest levels since September 2024. Bitcoin lost 4% during the Friday morning Asian session, dropping to just over $58,000. It saw a slight rebound towards $60,000 as of press time, following this fresh low for the current market cycle. Analysts had warned this week of an imminent significant sell-off in this price zone.
Ethereum briefly lost its market capitalization rank to Tether, falling more than 5% to $1,522 on Friday morning. This marks its lowest point since a dip in April 2025 and returns it to levels seen during the 2023 bear market. Meanwhile, altcoins are broadly in the red, continuing a significant downturn.
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