Clarity Act Gains Momentum Ahead of Tuesday Vote
Senate Democrats convened Sunday evening to discuss the Clarity Act, a pivotal piece of legislation concerning cryptocurrency market structure, just two days before a crucial vote that will determine its fate this year. The meeting followed a Friday discussion between President Trump and his advisors regarding the bill’s ethics provisions, the very issue that has stalled its progress since July. Overnight, the probability of the bill’s passage surged to 31%, more than doubling from its previous low.
Sources indicate that President Trump has reportedly agreed to revised ethics provisions that would impose restrictions on his and his family’s activities within the cryptocurrency space, as well as on other elected officials. This concession addresses a primary concern for many Democratic lawmakers.
The Senate is scheduled to vote on cloture at 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Securing sixty votes would advance the bill to floor debate. A failure to reach this threshold would effectively end any comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation for 2026, with the next viable opportunity not expected until 2029. With Republicans holding 53 seats and at least two anticipated to vote against the bill, supporters will likely require the backing of nine Democrats. As of Friday, no Democrat had publicly committed to supporting the bill, and Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) had stated that the revised text still fell short of his expectations.
The latest iteration of the bill, released Thursday, spans 630 pages and includes over 114 provisions added at the request of Democrats. A significant amendment places protocols that are “decentralized-in-name-only” under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration and the Bank Secrecy Act. However, the ethics language reportedly remains unchanged, which continues to be a point of contention.
Even if the Clarity Act fails to pass, progress is being made. CFTC official Mike Selig has already instructed his staff to explore regulatory frameworks under existing authority should Congress not act. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed allowing blockchains to serve as official stock ownership records, and the CFTC has moved to dismiss CME’s lawsuit concerning perpetual futures. Coinbase has also filed to bring single-stock perpetual futures onshore. These developments have occurred within the last two weeks, without new legislation.
Should the Clarity Act pass, the market implications are significant and appear to be largely unpriced. Ether (ETH) is expected to be a major beneficiary, along with revenue-generating protocols such as Hyperliquid and Lighter. A broad rally across the cryptocurrency market is also considered highly probable. This suggests a pivotal week ahead for the digital asset sector.
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