Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Signal Early Stages of Bull Market
New analysis suggests a potential shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, with long-term holders showing signs of reduced selling activity, a pattern historically preceding significant price rallies.
Onchain transaction data for Bitcoin (BTC) is indicating the nascent stages of a new uptrend, as investors who have held their coins for extended periods appear to be stepping back from selling.
According to data from the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, investors holding Bitcoin for 18 months or longer are exhibiting decreased activity. On September 16, the share of Bitcoin’s realized cap held by this cohort — representing the value of all coins at their last onchain movement price — reached 26.98%. This marks the highest level observed since mid-November 2024.
CryptoQuant’s analysis of this data reveals a recurring historical trend that has consistently preceded Bitcoin bull markets. “The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows,” the firm stated in a blog post.
The firm presented a chart illustrating Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) age bands, with their size reflecting their contribution to the realized cap. The reduction in onchain spending by these long-term investors suggests a strategic move to maintain exposure to BTC in anticipation of future profitability. This cohort’s contribution had been on a broad upward trend since November 2025, coinciding with increased profit-taking as BTC/USD moved further away from its all-time high of $126,200.
CryptoQuant cautioned that the observed reversal in the UTXO trend is currently modest, indicating that the market is only just beginning to experience more bullish conditions. “The market has now shifted into a bullish cycle, but we still appear to be in the early stages of the cycle, where such a signal has not even begun yet,” the firm commented. “This looks like a point where we can remain positive about both the potential upside and the duration of the rally.”
Among long-term holders, only the cohort holding BTC for 18 months to two years is currently experiencing a net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. Since its 2025 all-time highs, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below this group’s cost basis, while older cohorts have largely remained in aggregate profit. CryptoQuant data indicates that 2026 represents the first bear market where the price has stayed above the cost basis of the 2-to-3-year cohort.
In a separate report released last week, crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital characterized the current bear market as the “shallowest” on record, with a maximum drawdown from all-time highs of -53%.
Furthermore, Bitcoin held for five years or more, which Galaxy Digital identified as a factor in the supply glut that capped price upside at $126,200, is now also supporting the case for a renewed long-term uptrend. “Coins unmoved for five years or more moved at 67k BTC a month in 2024 and 47k in 2025… totaling 1.11 million BTC since October 2024, the largest old-coin distribution of any cycle, most of it absorbed by the spot ETFs and BTC digital asset treasury (DAT) companies,” Galaxy Digital noted.
In 2026, the volume supplied by the five-year-plus cohort has averaged 34,000 BTC per month, a significant decrease from the 2024 figures.
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