XRP’s MVRV Ratio Plunges to 2020 Low Amid Sell-Off

XRP Traders Face Significant Short-Term Losses

XRP traders are currently experiencing substantial short-term losses, with on-chain analytics firm Santiment reporting that the token’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has plummeted to its lowest level since December 2020. Santiment characterized this as an “extreme undervalued zone,” noting that months of selling pressure have left recent buyers significantly underwater.

The chart provided by Santiment, which tracks XRP Ledger’s price alongside its 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios on Sanbase, indicates that XRP’s 30-day MVRV is approximately minus 47%. The 365-day reading is also deeply negative, hovering around minus 36%. Santiment’s analysis identifies the current situation as an “opportunity” zone, contrasting it with previous periods of elevated MVRV, which were labeled as sell-risk territory.

Undervalued Zone Signals Potential Rebound

Santiment stated that the data suggests the average XRP trader active over the past month has suffered significant losses, a level that has historically coincided with periods of intense capitulation. “The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom,” Santiment wrote. “Historically, MVRV’s average trading returns will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for XRP. The chart shows that XRP’s 30-day MVRV has now fallen to its lowest level since December, 2020, suggesting that fear and frustration among traders have reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds.”

MVRV, a metric used by on-chain analysts, helps estimate whether holders are experiencing unrealized profits or losses. Deeply negative short-term MVRV readings, according to Santiment, suggest that recent market participants have largely been washed out, reducing marginal selling pressure from traders who purchased near local highs.

Market Dynamics and Broader Narratives

XRP’s recent decline followed a strong rally in late 2024 and early 2025, according to Santiment. The firm noted that many traders entered the market near local peaks before momentum waned, leaving short-term holders vulnerable as subsequent selloffs drove the asset lower. This has resulted in a market structure where recent buyers are not only underwater but significantly so.

Santiment also linked the current market setup to broader XRP narratives, which remain active despite the price retracement. The firm highlighted continued optimism among long-term investors regarding regulatory progress, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s adoption story, while acknowledging that the token has lost more than half its market value since the previous summer.

“Despite the major price retracement that has seen XRP lose over half its market value since last summer, patient investors still have optimism surrounding regulatory progress, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s long-term adoption narrative,” Santiment said. “XRP rallied aggressively in late 2024 and early 2025, which left many traders buying near local tops before momentum cooled off. But since then, repeated selloffs have pushed many short-term holders deeply underwater.”

The key question is whether the negative MVRV reading indicates market exhaustion or simply reflects the severity of the downtrend. Santiment did not present the metric as a standalone timing signal. However, the firm argued that historically depressed MVRV levels often appear when retail traders have largely capitulated, creating conditions where relatively modest positive news can have a significant impact.

“The deeply negative MVRV zone that we’re seeing for XRP now tends to appear when retail traders have largely given up, creating conditions where even small positive catalysts can trigger strong recoveries,” Santiment wrote. “While weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee a reversal, they often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside.”

At the time of this report, XRP was trading at $1.33.