Bitcoin’s anticipated recovery appears increasingly unlikely as a bearish flag formation takes shape. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen below $74,000 in the last 24 hours, and one analyst believes this latest move is part of a larger decline. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,240, down approximately 3.2% for the day. This drop has made a bearish TradingView analysis by Xanrox more relevant, as the analyst warned that Bitcoin could fall below its current structure and begin a wider move down to $44,000.
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Structure Nears Completion
According to Xanrox, a crypto analyst on social media, Bitcoin’s bear market structure is approximately 70% complete. Xanrox’s prediction is based on the premise that Bitcoin has been undergoing a large corrective structure since its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart reveals three separate bearish flag formations on the daily candlestick timeframe. The first is a small bearish flag, the second a medium bearish flag, and the third, a larger bearish flag, is currently developing around the current trading range.
Elliott Wave analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price action since October is following an ABC corrective pattern, with wave B now complete. This analysis indicates the Bitcoin bear market is about 70% complete, but the most significant downturn is yet to come.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
The forecast suggests the current Bitcoin correction will continue for months along a defined path. The first major level to watch is the lower boundary of the bearish flag, with the $71,000 region being a key level. A break below $71,000 would strengthen the bearish setup and could lead to another move towards the early February low around $63,000.
The overall forecast points to a deeper correction, with the chart indicating Bitcoin is moving through the stages of a corrective C-wave that might bottom out around $44,000. Xanrox identified this level as a strong point of control on the weekly candlestick chart, representing a high-volume zone that could attract price if it breaks below $63,000.
The timeline for this prediction extends into the second half of the year. The projected bottom is expected around September or October 2026, followed by a stronger recovery through October, November, and December. The roadmap then points to a larger bull cycle after the correction ends, in 2027 and 2028, with Bitcoin potentially reaching as high as $200,000 by 2028.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, has also cited October 2026 as his base-case bottom for Bitcoin’s bear market, aligning with Xanrox’s timeline.
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