XRP Whales Show Restraint Amidst Market Downturn, Hinting at Potential Rally
While the broader cryptocurrency market navigates bearish conditions, a notable shift in behavior among XRP “whales” – large token holders – suggests a potential turning point for the sixth-largest digital asset. Latest on-chain data indicates that these significant investors are reducing their sales on exchanges, sparking speculation about their growing confidence in XRP’s future.
An analysis by Pelinay, a researcher at CryptoQuant, points to a decrease in XRP sales by whales, combined with strengthening demand, as potential catalysts for a rally that could see XRP retest the $1.80 to $2.00 range.
Pelinay’s findings, drawing on data from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, reveal a decline in transfers exceeding 1 million XRP starting in 2025 and continuing into the current year. Prior to this downturn, such large-volume transfers were frequently observed, signaling substantial inflows from whales and institutional investors. These inflows remained consistently high between 2021 and 2025, indicating Binance as a primary hub for these market participants.
Following a peak in 2025, the influx of XRP exceeding 1 million tokens began to decelerate, reflecting a weakening selling pressure from major holders. This trend intensified after U.S. authorities approved spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), suggesting a diminished inclination among whales to divest their holdings.
Historical data analysis highlights a recurring pattern: sharp surges in inflows of both 100,000 to 1 million XRP and over 1 million XRP have historically preceded significant market downturns. This suggests that increased selling pressure from these investor cohorts has, in the past, contributed to substantial price drops for the asset.
“At the far right of the chart, no such extraordinary surge is currently visible,” Pelinay stated, referencing the Binance XRP inflow chart. “As a result, on-chain data does not point to aggressive whale selling or widespread profit-taking at this stage.”
Despite the reduced selling activity from whales since 2025, XRP’s price has still seen a retreat from the $3.00 region. At the time of reporting, XRP was trading around $1.10, marking a 10% weekly decline and a 5% drop in the past 24 hours. Pelinay attributed these price movements to leverage liquidations and the broader market weakness stemming from the current bear cycle.
Ultimately, XRP’s upward trajectory hinges on a strengthening of demand and sustained low inflows into exchanges like Binance. This scenario would lead to a decrease in available supply as demand accelerates.
“As long as there is no renewed surge in the 1M+ XRP inflow category, this constructive market structure may remain intact,” the analyst concluded.
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