XRP is currently trading near the $1.00 mark, reflecting a decline of approximately 9% over the past seven days and a more substantial 52% drop over the last year.
Potential for Enhanced Risk-Reward
Despite the downturn, UK-based technical analyst ChartNerd suggests that the further the Ripple token falls from its current position, the more attractive the risk-reward setup becomes. He identifies a potential demand zone between $0.90 and $0.70 should the $1.00 level fail to hold.
ChartNerd has been monitoring this scenario since at least June 12, when he outlined the broader market picture in a series of posts. He noted that XRP spent much of 2023 and extending into late 2024 trading below a resistance level of $0.80/$0.70, which acted as a ceiling until a breakout occurred in the fourth quarter of 2024.
This breakout, according to ChartNerd, was instrumental in propelling XRP to its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025. Since then, the trend has reversed, with key moving averages being lost and a weekly 20/50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) death cross signaling a structural shift. The asset has since fallen from its January 2026 peak of $2.40 to its current trading levels.
Revisiting Key Levels
Earlier this year, in February, XRP reached a low of $1.12. Following this, it attempted a recovery, consolidating sideways before being rejected near $1.55. ChartNerd’s analysis indicates that this rejection initiated the current downward trend, bringing XRP to lows around $1.00 in June. This level falls within what the market observer terms his “area of interest,” a zone he has been watching for a potential cycle bottom between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.
The significance of this zone, in his view, lies in the potential for the former resistance level from 2023 and 2024 to transform into support. If XRP can hold within the $0.90 to $0.70 range during any further market declines, the previous ceiling could indeed become a floor.
“This is a high-interest support region, but confirmation still matters most, and we do not have it yet,” ChartNerd stated previously.
Currently, the analyst believes XRP’s ongoing decline is pushing it deeper into this area of interest, and the more it falls, “the stronger the risk-reward setup becomes.” He also highlighted his observation of the 10-year Gaussian Channel, which XRP is now entering, noting its historical reliability as a guardrail throughout his tracking period.
Timing and On-Chain Data
Regarding the timing of a potential market reversal, ChartNerd indicated in a separate post that there is a “very strong likelihood” of a bounce occurring in the coming weeks as June concludes. This aligns with historical Bitcoin performance in midterm years. However, he cautioned that this might be a relief rally, potentially preceding a final downturn in the last quarter of the year.
In parallel, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that XRP is currently testing a significant volume block at $1.06, where on-chain data reveals over 830 million tokens have traded hands. Below this level, the next crucial clusters identified by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution are situated at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.
Meanwhile, another market observer, CasiTrades, commented that XRP is at a “most critical moment” in its current cycle. He noted buy orders placed at $0.93 and a deeper Fibonacci level at $0.87, framing the prevailing fear as a natural component of bottom formation rather than a signal to sell.
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