Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has reiterated a prediction that Bitcoin could reach $500,000, potentially before former President Donald Trump leaves office. This forecast, which has resurfaced following Trump’s recent public endorsement of the cryptocurrency, contrasts with Bitcoin’s current trading price and follows a previously missed target for 2025.
Kendrick’s $500,000 Bitcoin price target, with a potential endpoint by 2030 or sooner, is now framed by the former president’s emphasis on geopolitical competition and the national security implications of digital assets. Trump has publicly supported Bitcoin, framing it as a tool to counter China’s influence and assert U.S. sovereignty in the digital sphere. Kendrick suggests this stance could provide a potential regulatory tailwind, supporting the long-term outlook.
This renewed attention on Kendrick’s forecast comes after Bitcoin did not reach his earlier prediction of $200,000 by 2025. The cryptocurrency peaked at approximately $126,198 in October 2025, falling significantly short of that mark. Despite this miss, Standard Chartered and Kendrick maintain their long-term roadmap, citing institutional inflows, sovereign adoption, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply as foundational pillars of their thesis.
Trump’s recent public endorsement at a White House event has brought Standard Chartered’s long-term forecast back into the spotlight. The former president explicitly cited geopolitical competition as a primary rationale, warning that allowing rivals to dominate the digital asset space would carry strategic costs the U.S. cannot afford. He emphasized that preventing China from gaining an advantage was a key reason for his support, framing digital asset dominance as a question of sovereignty. This national security angle provides a potentially more durable basis for regulatory support than a purely market-driven endorsement.
The underlying thesis for Standard Chartered’s bullish case relies on legislative clarity under a potentially sympathetic administration, coupled with increased institutional access through spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Kendrick has framed the $500,000 target around the idea that Trump’s regulatory agenda could provide a long-term structural boost to Bitcoin.
However, the path to such a high valuation remains uncertain. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, a substantial distance from the $500,000 target. Some outside analysts offer a more conservative outlook, suggesting that a sustained low-to-mid six-figure Bitcoin price over the longer term is a more realistic base case, and that further downside remains possible before any durable recovery takes hold.
The realization of Standard Chartered’s prediction hinges on several factors, including the extent to which Trump’s national security framing translates into concrete regulatory policy, continued institutional adoption, and the broader macroeconomic environment. The uncertainty surrounding the exact timeframe of Trump’s departure from office also adds ambiguity to the prediction’s timeline. Despite the missed 2025 target, Standard Chartered maintains its long-term view, emphasizing that the core structural elements supporting their forecast remain intact.
Why This Matters
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick maintains a $500,000 Bitcoin price target, citing a potential regulatory tailwind from former President Trump’s focus on geopolitical competition and national security implications of digital assets. This prediction, while ambitious, is contingent on political will and the translation of geopolitical rhetoric into policy, with past misses serving as a cautionary note.
Broader Context
Donald Trump’s recent public endorsement of Bitcoin, framed through national security and geopolitical competition, has brought renewed attention to long-standing bullish predictions. This context necessitates an examination of the underlying drivers and potential risks associated with such forecasts, particularly given the significant gap between the target price and current market realities.
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