Despite significant reductions in revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase, analysts have largely maintained their positive ratings, suggesting that current stock prices may already reflect anticipated market pain. This divergence, coupled with mixed technical and on-chain data for Bitcoin, paints a complex picture of the cryptocurrency market.
On Wednesday, Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) stocks each saw modest gains of approximately 3-4%. This occurred even as William Blair, a Chicago-based investment bank, slashed its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for Coinbase. According to William Blair, 2026 revenue estimates were cut by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%. Adjusted EBITDA projections were significantly reduced by 34% for both 2026 and 2027. The firm also anticipates Coinbase’s total trading volume to fall roughly 44% this year to $669 billion, though it projects a rebound of over 32% in 2027.
Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury from William Blair stated that earnings are expected to trough in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027. They advised investors to “stay the course as spot crypto volume bottoms alongside Bitcoin.” The firm views the current cycle as structurally different from 2022, citing the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional flows, and a more mature regulatory environment. William Blair also highlighted Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network as a potential significant earnings driver, with retail derivatives and prediction markets contributing to a revenue base beyond spot trading. Retail derivatives alone reportedly crossed $200 million annualized in the first quarter.
However, not all analyst outlooks were as constructive in the near term. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley reportedly cut his price target for Coinbase to $155 from $170, maintaining a “neutral” rating. Moley flagged prediction markets and perpetual futures as key developments for Q2 and warned of “significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat” heading into Q3.
Coinbase stock has fallen nearly 30% this year, mirroring a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin. Circle has dropped about 20% since January. Despite these downturns, some market participants interpret the current stock prices as already reflecting the anticipated difficulties.
Bitcoin’s Technical and On-Chain Landscape
In terms of technical analysis for Bitcoin, veteran analyst John Bollinger has been observing a developing pattern on the daily chart. On July 2, Bollinger posted on X, identifying a “W” double-bottom pattern taking shape. He described the setup as “perfectly fractal.” Bollinger stated that if this pattern completes, he would view it as “a confirmation of a change in trend.” He also noted that in a bear market, bullish setups tend to break, and if this “W” pattern is successful, it would signal a trend change. Bollinger disclosed a long Bitcoin position through his investment vehicle earlier this year.
On-chain data from Glassnode analysis indicates a notable activity in selling pressure. According to Glassnode’s latest weekly analysis, long-term holder capitulation, which has been the primary source of selling pressure throughout the year, reportedly set its cycle peak two weeks ago and has since turned down. Glassnode also documented a broad wave of accumulation across wallets of all sizes during the June lows.
Navigating Market Uncertainty
Despite these technical and on-chain signals, a key uncertainty remains: the lack of sustained spot-driven buying to suggest a market recovery. Derivative positions are reportedly unwinding, long-term sellers are thinning, and the fear premium in the options market is easing, but the capital has not yet fully arrived.
This situation presents a complex outlook. While analysts like William Blair suggest that the pain for Coinbase may already be priced in and point to future growth drivers, and technical and on-chain data offer tentative signs of a potential trend shift for Bitcoin, the market awaits definitive confirmation of a sustained recovery. Uncertainty remains regarding whether the observed patterns will lead to a reported trend change and the extent to which new capital will enter the market.
Why This Matters
The materials describe a narrow update: William Blair, an investment bank, reduced its revenue and EBITDA forecasts for Coinbase for 2026 and 2027 while maintaining an ‘outperform’ rating. Whether the ‘W’ pattern on Bitcoin’s chart will complete and suggest a trend change.
Broader Context
Source materials place the market analysis in this context: William Blair—a Chicago-based investment bank founded in 1935 that most equity investors know from tech and growth coverage—released a noteslashing its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase while keeping its “outperform” rating.
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