Bitcoin Reaches $86,373 on Binance, Trader Killa Identifies Key Support Level
Bitcoin surged to $86,373 on Binance on October 2nd, marking a 3.55% increase over the preceding 24 hours. Trader Killa, a prominent figure in the crypto space, posted early on the same day, asserting that Bitcoin had established a solid low at $82,500. He referenced the 2023 bull market, noting that price dips below such established lows had historically been shallow, with the deepest only breaching 8%. Killa suggested that leveraging positions around this previous low with 7x to 10x leverage could be relatively safe, provided robust risk management practices are in place.
Killa’s Analysis of Bitcoin’s Established Low
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) at 4:20 AM Taiwan time on October 2nd, Killa declared Bitcoin’s “established low” to be $82,500. He backed this claim by citing historical data from the 2023 bull run, where price “sweeps” below such support levels rarely exceeded an 8% drop, with some instances seeing declines of only 4% to 5%. Based on this historical performance, Killa anticipates any current dip to be minimal. As of 4:25 PM on October 2nd, Bitcoin was trading at $86,373 on Binance BTCUSDT, reflecting a 3.55% gain in the last 24 hours.
Killa’s tweet stated: “There is no worse feeling than watching $BTC pump without you. Unfortunately, we are at the peak stage of disbelief despite a significant shift in trend. Any downside should be bought aggressively and quickly. Keep leverage low. If you want to make big money, you need to trade…”
An “established low” refers to a price point that has been confirmed by the market and has previously acted as support. A “sweep” occurs when the price briefly dips below this level before recovering. At the time of reporting, the current price of $86,373 is approximately 4.7% above the $82,500 level, meaning it has not yet revisited this key support.
Leverage and Risk Management
Killa emphasized that Bitcoin’s trend has clearly shifted, yet the market remains in a state of peak skepticism. He advised aggressive and swift buying on any downturns, cautioning traders to “Keep leverage low.” He further posited that using 7x to 10x leverage to go long near the previous low is a relatively safe strategy for a rally towards historical highs, contingent on proper risk management. He concluded his point by stating, “It is mathematics.”
A 10x leverage position would be liquidated if the price moves 10% against the trader. While the deepest 8% drop in the 2023 sample did not reach this threshold, an 8% decline would still result in a 56% loss of margin for a 7x leveraged position and an 80% loss for a 10x leveraged position, leaving only 20% of the initial margin.
This calculation has two limitations. Firstly, it does not account for trading fees or margin maintenance requirements, which would lead to earlier liquidations in reality. Secondly, the extent of any price sweep must not exceed the 2023 sample range; otherwise, the projection would not apply. In terms of price, a 4% to 8% drop from $82,500 would translate to a range between $79,200 and $75,900.
Market Indicators and Historical Context
Binance daily charts indicate that between September 24th and October 1st, six out of eight daily candles had their lowest points within the range of $82,563 to $83,186. This price range is close to Killa’s stated $82,500 low, though he did not specify the exact date from which he derived his figure.
Bitcoin’s daily high on September 21st reached $87,396, its highest point in nearly 75 days. Based on the closing price of $77,340 on September 2nd, Bitcoin has seen an 11.68% increase over the past 30 days.
On October 2nd, the open interest for Binance BTCUSDT perpetual contracts, representing the total volume of unsettled contracts, stood at 99,873 BTC. This is an approximately 8.0% increase from the 92,474 BTC recorded on September 30th, indicating a rise in open contract positions in the market over two days. The funding rate for perpetual contracts, a fee paid periodically between long and short traders, was last recorded at 0.01%, which is considered a baseline level, suggesting that long traders are not paying an unusually high premium.
The Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index registered 72 on October 2nd, falling within the “Greed” zone. The index stood at 74 and 71 respectively on the two preceding days. This contrasts with Killa’s assessment of the market being in a state of skepticism, as the sentiment index has remained above 70 for three consecutive days.
Broader Economic Factors
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 1 yard (25 basis points) on September 16th, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first rate hike of 2023, with all 12 voting members in favor. The median dot plot indicated that officials anticipate one more rate hike within the year, with the next meeting scheduled for October 27th-28th.
According to FRED data, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose from 4.96% on September 22nd to 5.29% by September 30th. A yield exceeding 5% implies that an investor buying a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and holding it to maturity would receive an annual return of over 5%. Killa’s tweet did not directly address interest rates or Treasury yields.
Killa’s Trading History and Future Outlook
Killa has approximately 234,000 followers on X. Reports from BlockBeats indicate that on April 14th, he initiated a short position on Bitcoin at $74,688 with a stop-loss set at $80,000, which would be triggered if the weekly closing price exceeded this level. On June 5th, he transitioned to a long position with a stop-loss of $31,950 and a target of $160,000.
The entry price for his June 5th long position was not disclosed. On that day, Bitcoin traded within a daily range of $59,131 to $63,978. These are his publicly disclosed positions, and his actual profit and loss records are not available.
In a separate tweet on September 29th, Killa responded to discussions about the depth of price corrections in 2023. Applying logic of diminishing returns and shallower pullbacks, he estimated that the maximum pullback for the current bull market, before reaching previous highs of $126,000, could range between 10% and 15%.
He calculated a 10% pullback to approximately $78,000 and a 15% pullback to around $74,000. He also stated that deep price sweeps were not part of his strategy, and he remained focused on the $90,000 range.
A 15% pullback, translating to $74,000, is approximately 10.3% below the $82,500 level, exceeding the deepest 8% drop observed in 2023. The 15% figure represents his projection for the maximum pullback in this bull cycle, while the 8% is the sample he cited from 2023. The 8% and 10.3% figures fall on either side of the 10% liquidation threshold for 10x leverage. Whether a 10x long position near the previous low would be liquidated depends on which of these potential drop magnitudes materializes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does Killa believe Bitcoin’s established low is?
Killa stated in his October 2nd post that the established low is $82,500, referring to a price point confirmed by the market and previously acting as support. Binance daily charts from September 24th to October 1st show six days where the lowest price fell between $82,563 and $83,186.
What was the deepest price drop below an established low during the 2023 bull market for Bitcoin?
According to Killa’s reference to the 2023 bull market, price sweeps below established lows only breached a maximum of 8%, with some recovering after only 4% to 5% declines. Calculated from $82,500, a 4% to 8% drop would range from approximately $79,200 to $75,900.
