U.
S. Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Inflows as Investors Eye Macro Shifts
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant surge in inflows last week, accumulating $853.5 million across five consecutive sessions. This marks a notable rebound from the $61.5 million net outflow recorded the previous week, bringing the cumulative net inflows since their launch to $52.18 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.
BlackRock Leads the Charge
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the primary driver of this influx, accounting for approximately $690 million, or about 80% of the week’s total inflows, as reported by Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies. On Friday alone, IBIT attracted $86.7 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw $41 million. Conversely, Invesco’s BTCO experienced an outflow of $19.4 million, and VanEck’s HODL shed $10.6 million.
The momentum, however, showed signs of easing as the weekend approached, with daily inflows declining from $128.7 million on Thursday to $98.9 million on Friday. By the end of the week, the funds held a total of $79.5 billion in assets, representing approximately 6.1% of Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization.
Macroeconomic Factors Influence Investor Sentiment
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, suggested that the recent inflows indicate a renewed interest in Bitcoin from institutional investors, following a brief pullback in the artificial intelligence sector. He posited that these flows likely comprise a combination of portfolio rebalancing and basis trading strategies.
Sun highlighted weakening U.S. employment data and declining expectations for interest rate hikes as more significant catalysts. Official figures revealed that employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, contrary to forecasts of a 95,000 gain. This data coincided with Bitcoin’s technical indicator, the “death cross,” where its 50-day moving average remained below its 200-day moving average. Furthermore, the odds of a September rate hike, as tracked by CME FedWatch, fell to 40% from 55% on Friday, though they rose to 46% by Monday.
The softening of AI-related equities has reportedly reduced the pull on global risk capital, prompting a shift towards less crowded assets, according to Sun. He identified the $60,000 to $61,000 range as a key support level that the market has repeatedly tested.
However, Sun cautioned against interpreting the week’s performance as a definitive trend reversal. He noted that the inflows are “not enough to support a trend reversal,” emphasizing that interest rate hike possibilities have not disappeared and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated.
Analysts Offer Divergent Outlooks
CoinShares presented a more optimistic view. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, stated in a Friday update that their “view remains that the cycle lows are probably now behind us,” while acknowledging that “this does not imply an immediate return to strong upside.” He anticipates Bitcoin to trade within a range for the next two to three months, potentially reaching $80,000. As of Monday morning, Bitcoin was trading around $65,100, up 0.4% for the day, according to CoinGecko data.
Butterfill pointed to three consecutive weeks of accumulation by large holders, or “whales,” following approximately $40 billion in whale selling since October 2025. He also cited $1.05 billion in inflows into digital asset investment products globally last week, a broader metric than U.S. Bitcoin ETFs alone, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. This pattern, he wrote, “increasingly resembles capitulation followed by early re-accumulation.” A sustained move towards $100,000, he added, would necessitate “a clearer deterioration in employment data and a more meaningful reduction in rate expectations.”
Meanwhile, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas proposed a different perspective. He noted on Twitter that IBIT, FBTC, and several other Bitcoin ETFs have seen daily inflows since the Coldcard exploit, which led to Bitcoin being drained from air-gapped wallets. Balchunas suggested it is “hard not to see causation in the correlation,” calling it the third-best week since October and deeming it “ironic, but somehow on brand” if a cold storage theft marked the beginning of a new rally.
Decrypt reported earlier this month that exchange deposits consisting of transfers under 10 BTC reached 7,300 BTC on July 31, the highest figure since February. CryptoQuant indicated that holders appeared to be moving coins for safety, though they cautioned that the connection was not definitive.
Wundke described the past week as the funds’ strongest since April, suggesting that investors are viewing current prices as a “bottom buying” opportunity. He anticipates little significant market movement before mid-September, when the Clarity Act is expected to have another legislative window and the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its next meeting. He expressed doubt that Republicans could secure sufficient votes for the bill’s passage in time. Traders appear marginally less pessimistic, with Polymarket users pricing the bill’s chances of becoming law this year at 21% on Monday, up from the 14% cited by Butterfill on August 6.
Both analysts also looked to the Middle East for potential catalysts. Wundke suggested that “any realistic Iran peace deal would dampen inflation fears and very much temper the mood for rate rises,” calling it a more likely catalyst for a market he described as oversold. For the present, he added, the market “mostly feels like ‘Groundhog Day,’” with holiday-induced malaise contributing to thin trading volumes.
