UpGate

Blog

  • XRP Liquidity on Coinbase Seven Times Higher Than Sales

    XRP Liquidity on Coinbase Seven Times Higher Than Sales

    Traders are closely watching XRP, the cryptocurrency, following Stellar’s recent 40% weekly surge, and speculating whether the older and larger token could be next to experience significant gains. The two assets have historically moved in similar patterns, and some analysts believe the current market setup is becoming familiar.

    XRP and XLM: A Potential Correlation

    Analyst Kevin Cage noted that while Stellar (XLM) has broken out after months of sideways trading, XRP has remained range-bound. Reports suggest that if momentum builds, some traders anticipate XRP could reach the $1.76 to $2 range sometime in June.

    XRP itself has seen a 2.50% increase in the past 24 hours. However, it remains down 2.50% over the last seven days and approximately 5% over the past month. The price is currently hovering near the $1.23 to $1.30 liquidity zone on Coinbase’s spot market.

    Order Book Analysis on Coinbase

    Analyst Dom, using the handle @traderview2 on X, highlighted interesting findings from Coinbase’s XRP order book. According to Dom, a heatmap of the order book reveals a significant concentration of buy orders below the current price, while sell orders above are comparatively smaller. He estimates the difference at roughly seven times, indicating that the buy-side depth significantly outweighs the selling pressure.

    Dom emphasized that order books reflect trader intentions rather than guaranteeing price movements, but he believes the data is still significant. He cited a 2025 Bitcoin call where similar order book readings supported his bearish outlook before Bitcoin’s price fell by around 30%. This suggests that when the data aligns, it can be a reliable indicator.

    Market Sentiment and Potential Price Movement

    Adding to the discussion, reports indicate that new wallets on Hyperliquid have opened large XRP long positions using 20x leverage, with some bets reaching millions of dollars. This activity has further fueled speculation about a potential price increase.

    Dom suggests that XRP’s market structure currently favors an upward price movement. Less buying pressure would be needed to push the price higher than the selling pressure required to drive it down. Whether this plays out depends on broader market sentiment. For now, traders are monitoring both the Coinbase order book and XLM’s momentum for clues about XRP’s next move.

  • Mashinsky Seeks to Overturn Crypto Fraud Sentence

    Mashinsky Seeks to Overturn Crypto Fraud Sentence

    Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending platform Celsius, is seeking to overturn his 12-year prison sentence, according to a new motion filed in the District Court for the Southern District of New York.

    Grounds for Appeal

    The motion, handwritten by Mashinsky, cites ineffective counsel and the “fruit of a poisonous tree” doctrine as grounds for vacating the sentence.

    Mashinsky, who pleaded guilty to charges of commodities and securities fraud, included additional materials to support his claims, stating that his counsel’s ineffectiveness stemmed in part from “financial duress resulting in unavoidable and absolute conflict of interest with client.”

    “The root of counsel’s deficiencies lay in the undisclosed financial distress of the firm Mukasey & Young LLP,” Mashinsky’s motion for habeas corpus relief states. “This distress created a conflict of interest that permeated every strategic decision made by counsel since the outset of the petitioner’s representation.”

    Alleged Conflict of Interest

    This conflict of interest arose from the firm’s engagement with FTX founder and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, also known as SBF. Mashinsky claims this created an “unwaivable conflict since it was market manipulation of the CEL token and StETH by SBF” that harmed Celsius. Celsius subsequently paused withdrawals, leaving customers unable to access billions of dollars in deposits.

    Shortly after halting withdrawals, Celsius was forced to file for bankruptcy in an attempt to stabilize its business. A year later, Mashinsky was arrested and charged by the SEC, CFTC, and FTC. Some charges alleged he defrauded customers of $42 million.

    He later pleaded guilty, reportedly stating in court, “I know what I did was wrong, and I want to try to do whatever I can to make it right.”

    Despite some creditors seeking harsher penalties, Mashinsky was sentenced to 12 years in prison. He is now seeking to have that sentence vacated.

    Recent Settlement

    Last month, Mashinsky was formally banned from the cryptocurrency industry as part of a $10 million settlement with the FTC. The regulator initially secured a $4.7 billion judgment against him, though the majority of the judgment has been suspended, requiring only the $10 million payment.

  • Crypto Stocks Rise After CFTC Action

    Crypto Stocks Rise After CFTC Action

    Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) closed the final trading session of the week in positive territory, with Robinhood’s stock leading the gains following regulatory developments that could broaden the U.S. market for crypto derivatives. Robinhood shares surged approximately 11% on the day, closing around $94 per share, the highest level since February. Coinbase (COIN) also saw significant gains, rising nearly 7% to finish the session near $189. This price point falls within the stock’s consolidation range of roughly $160 to $215, a band it has traded within since late March.

    CFTC Fuels Rally for HOOD and COIN

    The rally for both companies was largely attributed to actions taken by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On Friday, the agency announced it would permit U.S. firms to offer perpetual futures trading, potentially spurring new product launches and increased trading activity within the United States. In addition to this policy shift, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to Coinbase. This letter allows Coinbase’s U.S. customers to access the options and perpetuals the company already provides.

    The impact of the regulatory moves extended beyond Coinbase. Other U.S.-based firms, including trading platform Gemini and Robinhood, which already offers the product in Europe, have indicated they are exploring perpetuals.

    Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev characterized the opportunity as a “massive market opportunity,” adding that Coinbase and other firms could capture a share of trading activity currently concentrated in offshore venues.

    Robinhood Price Targets Increase

    Mizuho also raised its price target for Robinhood from $110 to $115. Separately, Citizens reiterated its “market outperform” rating and maintained a $155 price target.

    Contributing to the positive sentiment was Robinhood’s plan to allow users to connect artificial intelligence (AI) agents to their accounts for trading and credit card purchases.

    Robinhood also announced that customers will soon be able to instruct AI agents to trade equities in a separate account, with user-defined limits. Support for options, event contracts, futures, and other products is expected to be added later.

  • Solana Holds Key Support Amid Breakout Hopes

    Solana Holds Key Support Amid Breakout Hopes

    Solana Nears Critical Juncture as Price Defends Key Support

    Solana is approaching a crucial moment as its price struggles to maintain a multi-year support zone near $79. Following months of consolidation and repeated failed breakouts, growing signs of accumulation are fueling speculation that SOL may be poised for its next significant upward move.

    $79 Support Emerges as the Most Critical Level

    Strategist Scient identifies two critical price levels that define Solana’s macro landscape: the 2024 low at $79 and the impulsive high at $210. The $210 level is particularly significant, representing the peak of the 2021 altseason. Since then, the market has attempted to reclaim this threshold three times, each attempt resulting in rejection.

    These failed breakouts reveal a challenging multi-year structure. The second rejection, originating from the 2024 lows, initiated a year-long consolidation phase that culminated in a third failed attempt in September 2025. Following this final setback, selling pressure intensified, leading to a swift retracement to the 2024 low, where accumulation has been ongoing.

    SOL’s price action exhibits clear signs of accumulation near these historical lows, setting the stage for a potential breakout attempt. Scient notes the irony in the current setup: if SOL successfully establishes a bottom at the $80 level, it would mirror the historical support Ethereum found during its previous bear market cycle.

    The $79–$80 zone serves as the line in the sand for Solana’s structural integrity. As long as the price maintains this support, the bullish setup remains intact. However, a breach below this level could trigger a significant drawdown toward the mid-$20s. With the price currently trading above this vital support, the setup allows investors to cautiously position their bets within this critical consolidation range.

    Solana Breaks Out of Macro Downtrend

    Complementing the weekly outlook, Scient’s secondary analysis of the daily chart highlights a pivotal shift in Solana’s macro structure. The asset has decisively broken out of its long-standing macro downtrend, effectively flipping the trend to the upside. This marks a second bullish retest of this broken trendline, yielding a clean bounce that serves as textbook confirmation for technical traders.

    This bullish momentum is further validated by the volume profile, with a significant portion of the volume from previous highs having been absorbed, and current market activity showing a concentration at these levels.

    From current levels, there is little resistance leading up to the $120 mark, creating a clear path for the price. This lack of overhead supply suggests the market is positioned to move swiftly through this vacuum with minimal selling pressure. When these daily developments are synthesized with the broader weekly context, the resulting setup becomes increasingly compelling.

  • Crypto VC Funding Halves After Q4 2025 Peak: Galaxy

    Crypto VC Funding Halves After Q4 2025 Peak: Galaxy

    Crypto Venture Capital Activity Slows

    Crypto venture capital investment cooled in the first quarter of 2026, following a robust fourth quarter in 2025, according to a new report from Galaxy Digital.

    Venture firms deployed approximately $4 billion across 355 crypto and blockchain-focused deals during the quarter. This represents a 50% decrease in capital invested quarter-over-quarter and a 16% drop in the number of deals.

    Despite the slowdown, activity remained above many of the quarterly levels observed during the 2023-2024 market downturn. Galaxy Research attributed the decline primarily to the absence of the very large, later-stage financings seen in Q4 2025, while smaller seed and early-stage rounds continued at a relatively steady pace.

    If annualized, the Q1 pace would equate to roughly $16 billion invested in 2026, below 2025’s nearly $20 billion total but still stronger than much of the preceding two years. The historical relationship between Bitcoin prices and crypto venture investing has weakened compared to earlier cycles in 2017 and 2021. While Bitcoin reached new highs in late 2025, venture activity remained uneven. Both Bitcoin prices and venture funding declined in Q1 2026, although the drop in invested capital was more pronounced than the decline in deal activity.

    Funding Trends and Sector Performance

    Later-stage startups accounted for the majority of funding during the quarter, capturing roughly 57% of all invested capital, while earlier-stage companies received the remaining 43%. However, early-stage activity remained significant by deal count, even as the share of pre-seed deals declined to 19% and later-stage transactions rose to one-quarter of completed deals.

    Galaxy noted that this trend indicates the growing maturity of the crypto industry and the increasing presence of larger, revenue-generating companies.

    Meanwhile, median crypto deal sizes also reached new all-time highs, exceeding $4.5 million in Q1 2026, even as valuations slightly retreated from the record levels reached in Q4 2025.

    The Trading/Exchange/Investing/Lending category attracted the most venture funding by a wide margin, raising approximately $2.6 billion, or nearly three-fifths of all capital invested during the quarter. This category also led in deal count with 74 transactions.

    Wallet startups ranked second in capital raised, with roughly $270 million. Galaxy also found that startups founded in 2018 received the largest amount of capital in Q1, at $1.3 billion, while younger startups founded in 2024 and 2025 dominated overall deal count.

    Geographic and Fundraising Insights

    Geographically, the United States continued to dominate crypto venture activity, accounting for over 70% of all invested capital and 43.5% of total deals completed during the quarter. Bahrain and Singapore followed the US in capital share, while the United Kingdom ranked second by deal count.

    On the fundraising side, investors allocated nearly $1.1 billion to eight new crypto-focused venture funds, the fewest new funds launched in a quarter since Q3 2020.

    Galaxy stated that fundraising conditions remain challenging due to macroeconomic pressures, lingering effects from the 2022-2023 crypto market turmoil, growing institutional interest in artificial intelligence, and competition from spot crypto ETFs and digital asset treasury companies for investor capital.

  • XRP Could Surge to $80 if Ripple’s Fed Account is Approved, AI Predicts.

    XRP Could Surge to $80 if Ripple’s Fed Account is Approved, AI Predicts.

    Ripple’s Potential Fed Account Approval Could Boost XRP

    Ripple’s potential approval to hold a Federal Reserve (Fed) master account could trigger a significant upward movement for XRP, according to market analyst Sam Daodu. Daodu’s recent report indicates that artificial intelligence (AI) models generally agree that XRP could experience a price increase if Ripple gains access to the Fed’s settlement infrastructure.

    A key factor driving this optimism is that direct access to the Fed would allow Ripple to settle transactions directly, bypassing the banks that currently act as intermediaries.

    Daodu suggests that this process may already be underway. He cited Kraken’s March 2026 acquisition of a master account through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City as evidence that the approval pathway is no longer purely theoretical.

    XRP Price Forecasts

    Daodu shared model-driven forecasts for XRP, comparing various AI systems and their approaches to assessing catalysts and risks.

    According to Daodu, ChatGPT anticipates a measured recovery under base conditions, projecting XRP to trade between $2.50 and $3.00 by August 2026. The model also identifies $1.50 as a critical support level for the prediction to remain valid. Currently, the altcoin is trading below that level, having retraced to $1.32 per token. Daodu attributes this forecast to potential exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and growth in Ripple’s payment corridor. In a more bullish scenario, assuming accelerated ETF inflows and corridor growth, ChatGPT sees potential for XRP to reach $5.

    Grok’s projections are more aggressive, with a base forecast between $2.50 and $2.80, but an upper target of $10 under favorable conditions. Daodu reported that Grok links the $10 level to a scenario where Bitcoin surpasses $100,000.

    Claude’s outlook is more cautious, though still optimistic. The model’s base projection suggests XRP will remain in the $1.35 to $1.65 range for the remainder of 2026, with a 50% probability assigned to that outcome. Claude’s reasoning highlights that short-term rallies may fade without new catalysts. However, Claude’s long-term view is more constructive, with the potential for XRP to reach between $8 and $14 if ETF inflows exceed $10 billion and banking adoption accelerates. Claude emphasizes that sustained demand drivers are necessary to support such a price movement.

    Vincent Van Code’s AI forecast is the most ambitious among the models reviewed by Daodu. Instead of focusing on a single near-term target, Vincent Van Code projects a year-by-year trajectory, reaching $80 by 2032. This forecast is based on Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s projection that 30% of Ripple Treasury’s $13 trillion annual payment flow could move on-chain within five years. For 2026, the AI model targets price targets ranging from $6 to $10.

  • NYSE Parent Studies Hyperliquid’s Crypto Expertise

    NYSE Parent Studies Hyperliquid’s Crypto Expertise

    Hyperliquid, a crypto platform, has spurred interest from traditional markets, prompting discussions and scrutiny of its 24/7 trading model. Regulators are now being asked whether U.S. exchanges can offer similar perpetual futures under clear guidelines.

    ICE’s Interest in Hyperliquid

    According to Jeffrey Sprecher, founder, chairman, and CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the company is engaging with Hyperliquid to understand its operations. Sprecher made these remarks during a fireside chat at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on Wednesday.

    “We’re not freaked out about it,” Sprecher said, referring to Hyperliquid. “We’re actually talking to these people and learning about it. They’re learning what we’re doing. We’re helping them understand our world. They’re helping us understand their world.”

    Hyperliquid allows traders to bet on price movements around the clock, outside of the traditional Wall Street system. Perpetual futures, or “perps,” are contracts that enable traders to speculate on price direction without an expiration date.

    Sprecher highlighted the question of whether regulated exchanges can offer products comparable to the perpetual futures already available on crypto platforms. ICE, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has inquired with regulators about the restrictions preventing traditional venues from offering similar products.

    “But what we are saying to the regulators is: Can we do that?” Sprecher said. “Like, why are you prohibiting us from doing this when it’s already happening? And can’t we have a level playing field?”

    Regulatory Developments

    The gap between traditional and crypto markets is already closing. On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order allowing Kalshi to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures, a move that brings part of the market Sprecher described closer to regulated U.S. venues.

    Coinbase, a publicly traded U.S. crypto exchange, also announced Friday that it can now connect U.S. institutional clients to global crypto options and perpetual futures liquidity through its CFTC-regulated futures business.

    SpaceX as a Test Case

    On Wednesday, Sprecher pointed to SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company, as a near-term test of whether prices formed on crypto trading venues can influence a company’s public listing.

    Market participants and regulators will be watching whether a derivative price linked to SpaceX, formed before the IPO, proves irrelevant or becomes a reference point for the listing, he added.

    Traders are already using perpetual futures to bet on SpaceX’s expected listing price months before a potential IPO, with those contracts averaging nearly $18 million in daily volume over two weeks, according to Bloomberg.

    Interest in SpaceX has also grown alongside reports that Musk has discussed folding the rocket firm together with Tesla, a move that could place more than $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin under one corporate roof.

    Ultan Miller, CEO of private markets infrastructure firm Hecto Finance, told Decrypt that such discussions suggest price discovery for companies such as SpaceX is “increasingly happening on crypto rails” before a bank syndicate files their IPO paperwork.

    “Perpetuals are not the only tool in that shift, but they are an important signal of where marginal views on value are being expressed and hedged in real time,” Miller said. He added that regulators should focus on providing a “clear, technology neutral home onshore” for this activity to improve transparency in “notoriously opaque private markets.”

    Wall Street’s Perspective

    Fernando Lillo, marketing director at crypto trading platform Zoomex, told Decrypt that ICE’s talks with Hyperliquid demonstrate that Wall Street is taking on-chain derivatives more seriously.

    Lillo noted that access to companies such as SpaceX before they go public has long been “a venture capitalists’ and institutional elites’ game.”

    Traditional firms previously viewed crypto derivatives platforms as “unregulated shadow markets,” he said, but now, Hyperliquid highlights an “on-chain architecture validation” and “retail-driven pre-IPO markets.”

    Sprecher is making a “pragmatic” case to regulators, Lillo said: “If the demand exists and the technology works, let us host it safely in a regulated environment before we lose the market entirely to offshore entities.”

    The demand is already evident on crypto platforms. While the door to Bitcoin perps is open, products outside of it still require a “case-by-case” review process, the CFTC said.

  • Lenovo Stock Soars in May, Driven by AI Server Demand

    Lenovo Stock Soars in May, Driven by AI Server Demand

    Lenovo’s stock surged as much as 31% on Friday, bringing its gains for May to 109% – its best monthly performance since 1999.

    Shares of the world’s largest PC maker have more than doubled this month, making it the top performer on the Hang Seng Index year-to-date, with a 159% increase.

    Strong Earnings Fuel Rally

    The rally was driven by strong financial results. Lenovo’s fourth-quarter earnings showed quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase and its fastest quarterly growth rate in five years. Net profit reached $521 million, a 479% increase from $90 million a year earlier. Such a significant profit increase for a company of Lenovo’s size prompted the market to reassess its price targets.

    Infrastructure Solutions Group Drives Growth

    The company’s Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), which builds AI-optimized servers, storage systems, and data center products for large enterprise clients and cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, was a key driver of this growth. ISG posted record quarterly revenue of $5.6 billion, up 37% year-on-year, and reached $19.2 billion for the full fiscal year.

    Across the entire company, AI-related revenue grew 84% year-on-year and now accounts for 38% of Lenovo’s total quarterly sales. More than one in three dollars that Lenovo earns today is tied to AI. Goldman Sachs more than doubled its price target on Lenovo following these results.

    Dell’s Performance Further Boosts Investor Confidence

    Dell’s recent performance also contributed to investor optimism. On Thursday, Dell Technologies reported first-quarter fiscal year 2027 revenue of $43.84 billion, an 88% year-on-year increase, and raised its full-year AI server revenue guidance to $60 billion. Dell’s AI server backlog now stands at $51.3 billion. Investors responded by buying Lenovo stock.

    “AI server growth is obviously a driver, with demand now spreading from hyperscalers to enterprise for AI inferencing demand, which benefits conventional server OEMs like Lenovo and Dell,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Tseng.

    Shift to Enterprise Clients

    The shift in demand from hyperscalers like Amazon and Google to regular enterprise companies is a significant development. For the past two years, the AI infrastructure buildout has been concentrated around Nvidia chips and a few specialized players. Lenovo and Dell are now assembling the racks, qualifying the hardware configurations, and shipping compute-ready systems to businesses seeking AI solutions without building them from scratch.

    PC Business Remains Strong

    Lenovo’s PC business is also performing well. The Intelligent Devices Group posted $14.6 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, up 24% year-on-year, with Lenovo holding a 24.4% global PC market share – its widest lead over its nearest rival in 15 years. The AI PC wave is contributing to this success. However, server infrastructure is what significantly impacted the stock price.

    Contrasting Performance in Hong Kong Tech

    The rally is even more striking when compared to the performance of other Hong Kong tech companies. The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen more than 15% this year, weighed down by internet platforms experiencing margin pressures due to AI hardware spending. Lenovo, on the other hand, is selling the infrastructure, not buying it.

    Ambitious Targets Set

    CEO Yuanqing Yang called fiscal year 2026 the best year in Lenovo’s 40-year history and set a target of $100 billion in annual revenue within two years. Full-year revenue reached $83.1 billion, up 20% – the first time the company has surpassed the $80 billion mark.

    ISG enters fiscal year 2027 with an AI server pipeline exceeding $21 billion in committed demand, although the speed at which Lenovo can fulfill these orders depends on securing GPU allocations from Nvidia, which remains the primary supply constraint across the server industry.

  • Coinbase Launches Global Crypto Perpetual Futures

    Coinbase Launches Global Crypto Perpetual Futures

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has authorized Coinbase to offer crypto perpetual futures, paving the way for the U.S. exchange to connect its customers to the high-stakes offshore market.

    Access to Offshore Market

    Coinbase is now effectively permitted to provide its customers access to the global crypto perpetual futures market through Deribit, an offshore crypto options exchange Coinbase acquired for $2.9 billion last year. Perpetual futures are derivative contracts without an expiration date, allowing traders to make highly leveraged bets on the future price of crypto assets using borrowed capital.

    A source familiar with the matter told Decrypt that Coinbase has yet to determine which crypto assets it will enable for perpetual futures trading. The CFTC has cleared the way for the company to offer all “digital commodity” perpetual futures contracts traded on Deribit—a category that includes markets for tokens such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and the TRUMP meme coin, among others.

    Coinbase will decide which of those assets are “fit for purpose” and “the right kind of assets” to offer U.S. customers in the form of perpetual futures, the source said.

    Risks and Rewards

    Successful bets on perpetual futures can yield significant returns for traders. However, losing bets can be quickly liquidated or forcibly closed by exchanges, potentially triggering a devastating cascade effect. Last fall, rapid price fluctuations in crypto markets wiped out $19 billion worth of crypto positions within minutes, largely due to the extent of leverage.

    CFTC’s Stance

    The CFTC has indicated for over a year its intention to regulate crypto perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” within the United States. While risky, the crypto perps market is highly lucrative. According to DeFi Llama, the past month alone saw over $588 billion in crypto perps trading volume. In contrast, the entire decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem saw just $160 billion in trading volume during the same period.

    On Thursday, Coinbase sent the CFTC a letter requesting a no-action letter—a guarantee that the regulator would not sue if Coinbase began offering customers access to offshore crypto perps. Less than 24 hours later, the CFTC responded with a detailed, 16-page document outlining a new policy permitting Coinbase’s requested activities.

    New Product Approval

    In addition to granting Coinbase the ability to offer offshore crypto perps on its domestic exchange, the CFTC also approved prediction market Kalshi to create its own Bitcoin perpetual futures in the United States—the first such American-born product of its kind.

    While Coinbase is the first U.S. crypto exchange to receive approval to offer U.S. customers access to the global crypto perps market, other exchanges are expected to follow suit, referencing the guidelines outlined in the CFTC’s no-action letter.

  • XRP’s Future: Expert Warns of Time Running Out

    XRP’s Future: Expert Warns of Time Running Out

    XRP Price Faces Potential Dip Before Possible Recovery

    XRP has been trading sideways for most of 2026, resembling a coiling spring, but the anticipated upward surge may not be imminent. The cryptocurrency’s four-month consolidation has kept its price below a significant resistance level of $1.65. According to crypto analyst CasiTrades, time is running out, as XRP could be headed for a further decline to lower macro support levels before any substantial recovery can begin.

    Four Months of Resistance at $1.65

    CasiTrades’ analysis is based on XRP’s failure to break above the upper boundary of its consolidation pattern on the 4-hour candlestick chart. As the chart illustrates, XRP has been trading within a range with lower highs for several months, creating a compression pattern. The next decisive move could be crucial for the broader trend.

    The $1.65 level is the most critical in this analysis, as it has acted as the ceiling of the current structure since February. Each rejection from this area has weakened the immediate bullish outlook. CasiTrades suggests that the longer XRP fails to reclaim $1.65, the more likely it is to experience a final drop to lower macro supports. The analyst has outlined XRP’s price action since early 2026 within an Elliott Wave triangle structure with sub-impulse waves.

    Lower Macro Support Levels for XRP

    CasiTrades has specified the downside levels she is watching: $1.10 and $0.87 on Coinbase. The $1.10 area corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1.0854, while the $0.87 price target aligns with the 0.854 retracement near $0.8621.

    The next confirmed support lies between $1.26 and $1.30. A break below this range could push XRP to its year-to-date low around $1.11, bringing the deeper targets closer. Both price targets are derived from the broader macro downtrend that has shaped XRP’s structure over the past several months.

    The projected move would also complete the corrective sub-impulse wave 5, which began in February 2026, as well as the larger corrective wave 2 that started in late 2025. However, this does not necessarily invalidate a bullish structure. In fact, the analyst predicts that a move to macro support could be the final decline before a stronger recovery. The chart indicates a significant rebound from the lower support zone, with XRP potentially pushing back through $1.65 and exceeding $2 if sufficient bullish momentum emerges.

    At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.32 and is open to either direction. The first sign of a bullish shift would be XRP reclaiming $1.65 and establishing it as support.