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  • Revolut Hackers Leak Client Data, Demand Bitcoin Ransom

    Revolut Hackers Leak Client Data, Demand Bitcoin Ransom

    Hackers Leak Revolut Customer Data, Demand 10,000 Bitcoin Ransom

    Attackers who successfully tricked financial technology firm Revolut into handing over customer records have published the personal data of high-profile clients over the weekend. The group is demanding a ransom of 10,000 Bitcoin, warning on September 14 that they would escalate the daily release of stolen information until the European fintech complies.

    Revolut confirmed on September 12 that an unauthorized party had impersonated a government agency. The attackers sent fraudulent requests for information using an email address from the agency’s legitimate domain, complete with valid technical authentication, which staff processed as a routine legal request.

    The data breach, as previously reported, includes the disclosure of passports, verification selfies, account statements, and IBANs, alongside names, dates of birth, and home addresses. A Revolut spokesperson stated the company “recently identified a sophisticated external impersonation scam where an unauthorized third party utilized a legitimate government agency domain email to submit fraudulent requests for information.”

    The group, identifying itself as Revolut Smilik, has posted client files across several Telegram channels. They have warned that they will “start releasing more and more data every day until Revolut pays for leaking their customers.”

    The leaked details posted by the hackers include information on several customers, such as tennis player Alexander Shevchenko and Gamdom CEO Felix Römer.

    The published material appears to contain data on prominent individuals, including company executives, sports professionals, and performing artists, according to The Register. The publication estimated the 10,000 Bitcoin ransom demand to be worth more than $782 million. Revolut has declined to comment on the ransom demand.

    The company stated that it blocked the unauthorized access upon detection and has alerted the relevant government agency, law enforcement, data protection, and financial regulators. Revolut also confirmed that its systems and customer funds remain unaffected. The firm indicated that a limited number of customers were impacted and that it has contacted them directly, without disclosing the exact number of affected individuals or naming the compromised agency.

    Earlier, Revolut had stated that the biometric facial data of affected customers was not compromised. On-chain investigator ZachXBT, who flagged the incident, suggested that the breach appeared limited in scope and concentrated on high-net-worth users, an assessment that Revolut and independent parties have not yet confirmed.

    Revolut offers customers the ability to buy and sell over 90 cryptocurrencies. The stolen files reportedly include some clients’ complete Bitcoin transaction histories. Similar data leaks have previously fueled targeted scams against cryptocurrency holders. For instance, criminals have used leaked order data to send convincing phishing emails to Ledger owners, exploiting a fabricated Ledger-Trezor merger to lure them to a fake website that harvested their recovery phrases.

    The Revolut demand represents another instance where customer data has been weaponized against crypto firms. This follows a similar incident involving Coinbase, where a ransom demand forced the exchange to disclose a breach affecting over 69,000 customers, exposed after overseas support agents were bribed to hand over their records.

  • Yen, Yields: Bitcoin’s Top Near-Term Risks, Say Analysts

    Yen, Yields: Bitcoin’s Top Near-Term Risks, Say Analysts

    Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a pivotal week, with major central bank decisions on the horizon that could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its September interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan two days later.

    Markets are largely anticipating an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. However, according to XWIN Japan, the crucial factor will not be whether rates change, but the hawkish tone adopted by both central banks.

    XWIN Japan has identified a scenario that poses a significant concern: a simultaneous rise in U.S. yields and the Japanese yen. Elevated U.S. interest rates tend to tighten global liquidity. A stronger yen, in turn, could accelerate the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, prompting investors to reduce risk exposure across both equity and cryptocurrency markets.

    With Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield nearing 5%, inflation concerns remain a prominent backdrop to these upcoming central bank meetings. Following these decisions, XWIN advises traders to closely monitor U.S. yields, the USD/JPY exchange rate, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and underlying demand, as these indicators will signal the true market test.

    Recent economic data has already contributed to market volatility. August payrolls significantly exceeded economists’ expectations, coming in at 162,000, and producer prices saw an acceleration to 5.4% annually. Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed headline inflation at 3.4%. In response to this data and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, falling from approximately $82,400 to below $78,000.

    Political and Legislative Developments

    Tuesday also presents a potential market catalyst with a Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, which requires 60 votes to proceed.

    Adding another layer of complexity, President Donald Trump has threatened to halt trade with countries running a U.S. trade deficit if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates. The current market sentiment, leaning towards a rate hike, runs counter to the President’s stated preference.

    Hupzy of Spot On Chain described the situation as “a binary macro catalyst with asymmetric cross-asset risk,” noting that a rate hike would pressure non-yielding assets, while political maneuvering could cast doubt on the dollar’s credibility.

    Bitcoin’s Current Standing and ETF Flows

    At the last check, Bitcoin was trading a few hundred dollars shy of $78,000. While it saw a slight increase over the past 24 hours, it remained down approximately 2.5% for the week. Despite these short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin has still gained about 23% over the last 30 days. It is currently trading nearly 39% below its all-time high of over $126,000, which was reached in October of last year.

    Meanwhile, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have diverged. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $462.73 million across four trading days last week, marking their first negative week since mid-August. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) ETFs continued to see inflows, with a notable $216.41 million inflow on Friday, as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency reached an eight-month high.

  • XRP’s Fate Uncertain as CLARITY Act Vote Looms

    XRP’s Fate Uncertain as CLARITY Act Vote Looms

    CLARITY Act Vote Looms: XRP Faces Potential Setback as Senate Debates Crypto Bill

    A pivotal vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, scheduled for September 15, is not a final passage vote but carries significant weight for the cryptocurrency market. Senators will determine whether to advance debate on the legislation, a process requiring 60 votes for cloture. This means that even with unanimous Republican support, the bill would still need backing from some Democrats or independents to proceed.

    XRP, a cross-border token, is particularly intertwined with the proposed legislation, making a potential failure to advance the bill a considerable risk to its price. To gauge the potential impact, ChatGPT was consulted for its outlook on the matter and its predictions for XRP.

    The CLARITY Act aims to establish a comprehensive federal framework for the cryptocurrency market. This includes defining clearer responsibilities for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as setting rules for exchanges, brokers, dealers, and digital commodities. This regulatory clarity is especially pertinent for XRP, given Ripple’s protracted legal battle with the SEC.

    Following the conclusion of the lawsuit initiated in late 2020, the SEC classified XRP as a digital commodity. The proposed legislation would solidify this classification and the broader regulatory landscape into federal law, offering greater durability than the SEC’s historically shifting allegiances with different administrations.

    While a failure to pass the CLARITY Act next week would remove a potential bullish catalyst, it is unlikely to negate all of the regulatory progress XRP has achieved over the past eighteen months.

    From a technical perspective, XRP is currently trading near $1.40, holding above key support levels between $1.34 and $1.35, but has yet to reclaim the critical resistance at $1.40. If cloture fails but Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain stable, ChatGPT anticipates an initial reaction of a 7% to 10% dip for Ripple’s token, potentially falling to the $1.20-$1.25 range.

    A more aggressive selloff could push the asset lower, toward $1.10, particularly if markets interpret the vote’s outcome as a sign that comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation could be significantly delayed beyond the midterm elections.

    An additional concern emerges the following day, with the Federal Reserve’s conclusion of its September 15-16 FOMC meeting. A failed CLARITY Act vote, coupled with a hawkish Fed decision, could escalate an XRP-specific regulatory disappointment into a broader crypto market selloff. In such a scenario, the AI platform predicted a more severe decline, potentially reaching $1.00.

    On a more optimistic note, ChatGPT indicated that a lack of progress on the CLARITY Act alone would not be a strong enough catalyst to drive XRP below the $1.00 mark.

  • Senate Eyes CLARITY Act with 60-Vote Threshold

    Senate Eyes CLARITY Act with 60-Vote Threshold

    CLARITY Act Odds Plummet as Senate Vote Looms

    The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 have significantly decreased, standing at just 25% on September 13, a sharp drop from 82% in February. Concurrently, a separate market on the prediction platform Kalshi indicated a 94% probability of a U.S. Senate vote on the measure before October 1.

    This divergence highlights two critical junctures: first, whether the Senate will even consider the legislation, and second, whether it will successfully navigate the full legislative process to be enacted into law – a development many believe is crucial for a potential cryptocurrency bull market.

    Senate Set for Procedural Vote

    The Senate is scheduled to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi market’s concern is focused on whether H.R. 3633, previously known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed represents an earlier procedural step, distinct from final enactment.

    More than $8 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract related to the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability for this outcome fell from 82% in February to 16% by September 7.

    Divergent Projections for Passage

    Estimates regarding the Senate’s threshold for passage vary. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed optimism in a CNBC interview, suggesting he was confident about securing the necessary 60 votes and characterizing the negotiations as largely successful in meeting the demands of both sides.

    However, other assessments have been more cautious. Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners revised his estimate of the bill’s chances of passage downward from approximately 40% to 25%. Galaxy Digital’s August estimate stood at a mere 10%. These projections, much like the prediction market prices, address the prospects for legislation that must overcome a procedural Senate vote before advancing further.

    Key Senate Vote Approaches

    In related CLARITY Act news, the September 15 vote is expected to focus on a motion to proceed, a procedural step that would authorize debate on the bill rather than passing it outright. Supporters require 60 favorable votes to advance. With Republicans holding 53 Senate seats, at least seven Democrats would need to join them to overcome a potential filibuster.

    The CLARITY Act previously passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134. The bill aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market.

    Contentious Issues Remain

    Under the proposal, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would be granted exclusive authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would retain oversight of certain securities offerings and crypto exchange activities.

    However, three key areas of disagreement persist. A contingent of Democrats, including Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, are advocating for a binding ban on public officials holding cryptocurrency assets. Traditional banking institutions have also resisted compromise on issues related to stablecoin rewards. Furthermore, lawmakers remain divided over protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and non-custodial software developers, with concerns that certain language could inadvertently create regulatory loopholes.

    The Path Forward

    If the motion to proceed garners the necessary votes, the legislation would advance to formal debate. The outstanding disagreements concerning ethics, stablecoin rewards, and protections for DeFi and non-custodial developers would still need to be resolved. Failure to achieve cloture would halt the bill’s progress at this procedural stage.

    It is important to note that the legislative route is not the sole avenue for cryptocurrency policy. The SEC and CFTC are actively pursuing regulatory measures without waiting for congressional action. Under the leadership of Paul Atkins, the SEC has reportedly abandoned certain enforcement actions and outlined a taxonomy of crypto assets. The CFTC is also addressing issues related to leveraged exchanges and DeFi.

    While regulatory action can establish a framework outside of legislation, agency rules are also subject to change by future administrations. Therefore, the September 15 proceeding remains a significant indicator of whether the CLARITY Act can initiate Senate debate, while prediction markets underscore the separate challenge of its potential enactment into law by 2026.

  • Revolut Data Breach Exposes Passports, Bitcoin Histories

    Revolut Data Breach Exposes Passports, Bitcoin Histories

    Fintech Giant Revolut Compromised by Sophisticated Phishing Scam, Exposing Sensitive Customer Data

    Revolut, the prominent fintech firm, has disclosed a significant data breach that resulted in the exposure of sensitive customer information, including passport copies and detailed Bitcoin transaction histories. The breach occurred after the company fell victim to a fraudulent request disguised as a legitimate government inquiry.

    Details of the Breach

    According to a customer notification shared by crypto investigator ZachXBT, Revolut received a request for customer data that appeared to originate from a government agency. The request was sent from an unauthorized email account that had successfully spoofed the agency’s official domain. Crucially, the message included valid domain authentication credentials, leading Revolut to believe the request was genuine and proceed with fulfilling it.

    The compromised data is extensive, encompassing a wide range of personal and financial details. Affected customers had their full names, dates of birth, and occupations exposed. Contact information, including postal addresses, email addresses, and phone numbers, was also compromised. Furthermore, identity verification documents, such as copies of passports or driver’s licenses, and verification selfies were handed over.

    For cryptocurrency holders, the breach is particularly concerning as it includes financial data such as account statements with IBAN and wallet reference numbers, withdrawal records, and complete transaction histories, including Bitcoin transactions. Revolut has stated that no biometric facial telemetry data was involved in the incident.

    Revolut’s Response and Impact

    A spokesperson for Revolut confirmed the breach to TechCrunch, characterizing it as “a sophisticated external impersonation scam where an unauthorised third party utilised a legitimate government agency domain email to submit fraudulent requests for information.”

    The company indicated that a “limited” number of customers were affected. Revolut has since blocked the fraudulent email address and has alerted the relevant government agency, law enforcement, and regulatory bodies. The company maintained that its internal systems and customer funds remain unaffected. Revolut declined to specify the exact number of customers impacted or the identity of the government agency that was impersonated.

    Wider Implications and Industry Concerns

    ZachXBT suggested that the incident may have specifically targeted high-net-worth individuals, a development that raises concerns given the recent increase in violent “wrench attacks” against known cryptocurrency holders. The leak has drawn sharp criticism from users on social media, with many arguing that the episode highlights how know-your-customer (KYC) regulations may create risks without delivering commensurate benefits.

    One user, Marc Zeller, posted on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), “Woke up to all my data leaked by @Revolut. Sharp reminder that KYC hasn’t produced meaningful upside and has put many in harm’s way.”

    This breach occurs during a challenging period for companies that hold personal data of cryptocurrency users. Hardware wallet manufacturer Trezor recently experienced a support-vendor breach that exposed tens of thousands of additional customers. Separately, X (formerly Twitter) appeared to suffer its own data breach, which led to a flood of password reset requests for its users.

    Revolut, which launched its euro-pegged EURR stablecoin earlier this year, is reportedly considering an initial public offering (IPO).

  • Revolut Exposed User Data After Fake Government Request

    Revolut Exposed User Data After Fake Government Request

    Revolut Exposed Sensitive Customer Data Following Sophisticated Phishing Attack

    Financial technology firm Revolut inadvertently disclosed highly sensitive personal and financial information belonging to some of its customers after falling victim to what appears to have been a sophisticated phishing operation masquerading as an official government request.

    The breach, revealed by on-chain investigator ZachXBT, involved the company sending emails to affected users admitting that exposed records included passports, verification selfies, addresses, and comprehensive Bitcoin transaction histories.

    In the communication to customers, shared by ZachXBT on his Telegram channel, Revolut stated it had received a request for information that seemed to originate from a legitimate government agency. The company clarified that the sender was not simply spoofing an official-looking address. Instead, the request originated from an unauthorized email account that utilized the government agency’s actual email domain and possessed valid domain authentication credentials.

    Believing the request to be authentic, Revolut proceeded to fulfill it. The disclosed information potentially encompassed customers’ full names, dates of birth, occupations, home addresses, email addresses, and phone numbers. More critically, the exposed data included copies of passports and/or driver’s licenses, along with the selfie images provided by clients during the identity verification process. Revolut did note, however, that biometric facial telemetry itself was not compromised.

    The firm also confirmed that financial information was shared, including account statements containing IBANs, account-opening dates, and wallet reference numbers. Withdrawal records and complete transaction histories, including Bitcoin transactions, were also part of the compromised data.

    Revolut has not publicly identified the government agency targeted by the phishing attempt, and the notification to customers does not specify whether passwords, private keys, or customer funds were accessed.

    ZachXBT described the incident as “likely limited in size,” suggesting that the perpetrators may have targeted high-net-worth individuals. However, this remains unconfirmed by independent sources or Revolut. The company has also not disclosed the total number of affected clients.

    Based on the information available, the incident appears to be a case of unauthorized disclosure rather than a direct breach of Revolut’s internal systems. The company’s standard procedure for government and law enforcement agencies is to submit official information requests through a dedicated, secure channel.

  • Bitcoin Investors See Full Picture Ahead of Fed Move

    Bitcoin Investors See Full Picture Ahead of Fed Move

    Inflation Report Paints Hawkish Picture Ahead of Fed Meeting

    The final major inflation report before next week’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting was released Friday, adding complexity to an already intricate economic landscape. The data revealed a robust employment sector, persistent inflation, and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel.

    These developments have significantly amplified expectations for interest rate hikes in the coming weeks, a scenario that could pose challenges for risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.

    Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter suggest that the U.S. central bank now possesses all the critical economic data points ahead of the key September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The prevailing economic indicators collectively point towards a hawkish stance.

    A jobs report released earlier this month indicated that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the expected number. This signals a labor market that remains considerably stronger than anticipated and is likely capable of absorbing tighter monetary policy. Subsequently, Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a surge in producer inflation to 5.4%, up from 4.8% in July. Other components of the PPI, which feed into the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge, also strengthened.

    Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed that consumer inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Furthermore, oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel in the past week, while diesel prices reached record highs domestically. This has heightened concerns that increased energy and transportation costs could ripple further throughout the economy.

    The Kobeissi Letter summarized the situation on Twitter: “We now have all the relevant data that we will get prior to the September 16th Fed meeting. US PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, the US economy tripped expectations and added +162,000 jobs in August, and US CPI inflation is at +3.4%. We also have $100+ oil…”

    Bitcoin experienced significant volatility on Friday in its initial reaction to the news. The cryptocurrency fluctuated from $77,000 down to $76,000, then surged to nearly $80,000, before settling back to its starting point. Following the CPI release, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike initially rose to 79%, with Reuters later reporting that futures markets priced the odds at 87%, an increase from 72% prior to the inflation data.

    Higher interest rates typically bolster Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while simultaneously tightening financial conditions and diminishing demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. This presents the most apparent risk for the cryptocurrency.

    However, Bitcoin’s subsequent recovery could indicate that investors have already factored in a substantial portion of the anticipated rate hikes. Consequently, the September 16 meeting may focus less on the certainty of a Fed rate increase, which is now widely expected, and more on the hawkish tone adopted by policymakers like Kevin Warsh and whether markets perceive further hikes to be on the horizon.

  • Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE Face Pullbacks Amidst Market Uncertainty

    Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE Face Pullbacks Amidst Market Uncertainty

    The week of September 11th saw several major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Binance Coin (BNB), and Hyperliquid (HYPE), experience price declines. While technical indicators offer insights into potential support and resistance levels, the current market conditions highlight significant uncertainties and limitations in predicting short-term price movements.

    Ethereum (ETH)
    Ethereum experienced a 3% decrease this week, touching a price level of $2,500. The cryptocurrency faces a key support at $2,400. Momentum has turned somewhat bearish, with buy volume declining and bulls showing signs of exhaustion, suggesting a potential for further downside if the $2,400 support fails. However, ETH has a chance to make higher highs as long as the price can hold above this level.

    Ripple (XRP)
    XRP saw a significant 9% crash this week after sellers rejected a notable move attempt at the $1.6 resistance level. The cryptocurrency retreated to the $1.3 support level. This level is critical, as it can influence the momentum that previously drove XRP up by 60% in late August. If the $1.3 support holds, XRP could establish a higher low, potentially encouraging buyers to return for another attempt at $1.6. The uncertainty remains whether this support will hold.

    Cardano (ADA)
    Cardano (ADA) also faced downward pressure, closing 9% lower this week after failing to clear the $0.23 resistance. With recent price movement under threat, buyers are struggling to regain control. If current trends persist, ADA may fall below $0.20 and potentially re-test the key support at $0.15. The ability of ADA to find renewed buyer interest is crucial to escape its current range.

    Binance Coin (BNB)
    Binance Coin (BNB) dropped 2% this week, with sellers reversing price action around the $780 level. A test of support at $690 appears likely in the coming days. Ideally, BNB would hold above $690 to maintain buyer advantage. However, even if a more significant correction occurs, BNB may remain bullish as long as it can secure a higher low, with $580 identified as a key support level.

    Hyperliquid (HYPE)
    Hyperliquid (HYPE) pulled back 10% this week after reaching a new record price of almost $90 last week. The current weekly bearish engulfing candle suggests a short-term bearish bias. Despite this, the overall uptrend channel for HYPE is expected to remain intact as long as the price stays above the key support level of $70. Short-term key support levels are also noted at $76 and $70. The potential for HYPE to test the $100 psychological level before significant selling returns remains an uncertainty.

    Market Uncertainty and Limitations
    The analysis of these cryptocurrencies underscores the inherent limitations of technical indicators. While support and resistance levels provide reference points, they are not definitive predictions of future price movements. The current market environment is characterized by pullbacks and a degree of bearish sentiment, making it crucial for investors and traders to approach these signals with caution. The uncertainties surrounding key support levels for ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE highlight the need for a balanced perspective, acknowledging that signals are observational and not guarantees of market direction.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: Several major cryptocurrencies experienced price declines and faced key support/resistance levels. Whether ETH can hold above $2,400 to make higher highs.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the market analysis in this context: This Friday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail.

  • ESMA Highlights Inside Trading Risks and Regulatory Complexity in Prediction Markets

    ESMA Highlights Inside Trading Risks and Regulatory Complexity in Prediction Markets

    The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has identified prediction markets as a sector prone to inside trading and facing significant regulatory complexity. In its risk monitor, ESMA dedicated a chapter to these platforms, highlighting concerns that could lead to their classification as financial instruments or gambling, and noting that platform responses to issues are largely reactive.

    ESMA pointed to three specific episodes of alleged inside trading or manipulation. Notably, new wallets reportedly made $1.2 million in the hours preceding a February strike on Iran. By May, analysis by Bubblemaps traced nine linked accounts to $2.4 million in Iran-related bets that were successful 98% of the time. In another instance, a U.S. Army master sergeant was charged over $400,000 in profits from Polymarket, related to bets on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Furthermore, suspected tampering with weather sensors used to settle Polymarket contracts prompted Météo-France to file a police complaint in April.

    Regulatory Classification Ambiguity

    The regulator emphasized the ambiguity surrounding the classification of event contracts. ESMA stated these contracts can qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II, fall under MiCA, or be considered gambling under national law. When classified as financial instruments, they are treated as derivatives. National rules, mirroring ESMA’s intervention on binary options, prohibit their sale to retail investors. Uncertainty remains regarding why platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket restrict users in some EU countries but not all, despite both banning VPNs. Malta, however, is reportedly drafting a framework for prediction markets.

    Market Volume Growth and User Dynamics

    Volumes in these markets have surged considerably. ESMA’s data collection periods for Kalshi ended in November 2025 with quarterly volumes of $8.8 billion, and for Polymarket in January 2026 with quarterly volumes of $12 billion. By June, The Block reported their combined monthly volume at $44.8 billion, with Kalshi alone accounting for $31.5 billion. ESMA reported that sports constitute 73% of Kalshi’s volume, while Polymarket divides its volume across politics, sports, and crypto.

    Further analysis cited by ESMA indicates a concentration of gains among a small number of users. A Wall Street Journal finding suggested that 67% of Polymarket gains went to just 0.1% of accounts. A Bloomberg analysis indicated that most users lose money on these platforms. The practical effectiveness of VPN bans by these platforms remains uncertain.

    Divergent US Regulatory Stance

    In contrast to the EU’s cautious approach, Washington has taken a different course. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has defended its jurisdiction and proposed barring war and assassination contracts. Both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are reportedly taking action against individuals involved in the crypto space.

    Key uncertainties persist regarding the practical effectiveness of VPN bans and the reasons behind the selective application of user restrictions across EU member states. The exact nature and outcome of the CFTC and SEC’s actions concerning crypto persons also remain unclear.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: ESMA has identified prediction markets as being prone to inside trading and has highlighted regulatory challenges, including potential classification as financial instruments or gambling. The practical effectiveness of VPN bans by Kalshi and Polymarket.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: ESMA’s risk monitor gives the prediction market sector its own chapter.

  • Cardano Price Tests Support Amidst Ambiguous Market Signals

    Cardano Price Tests Support Amidst Ambiguous Market Signals

    Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at approximately $0.205, testing a critical support level that has held firm since the beginning of September. The cryptocurrency has seen a 4% daily decline and an over 8% weekly drawdown, signaling recent price pressure.

    Derivatives market data paints a cautious picture. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s long-to-short ratio is 0.91, indicating a slight lean towards short positions. Furthermore, the funding rate turned negative on Friday to -0.0007%, a signal that traders are paying to maintain short positions, which can suggest bearish sentiment. CryptoQuant’s summary flags this combination as reading as cautious rather than confident.

    Technical indicators point to a consolidation phase for ADA. The asset is trading above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.198 and its 100-day EMA at $0.200. However, the 200-day EMA is capping potential upside at $0.241. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative below the zero line. This technical setup suggests that while bullish pressure exists, it has not yet committed to a sustained upward movement. Volume has also not offered significant conviction.

    Recent price action shows ADA ran from $0.1936 to $0.2320 over six days, with the $0.2151 level rejecting the price three times. The $0.2051 level is noted as the origin point of that run.

    Potential Downside Risks

    If key support levels are breached, potential downside risks emerge. A decisive close below $0.195, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, could open the door to further declines, potentially testing the $0.173 level and eventually a horizontal floor around $0.150. Traders are monitoring this scenario closely.

    Pathways to Recovery

    Conversely, reclaiming the $0.210 level as support would be a necessary step for any potential upward movement. Resistance is stacked overhead, with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.231 and a resistance band between $0.236 and $0.245. A clean break above this cluster would be needed to validate a trend reversal; anything less is considered market noise.

    Shifting Focus to Emerging Infrastructure

    For established assets like Cardano, which already possess a significant market capitalization, the asymmetric upside potential may be limited compared to projects still in earlier stages of development and price discovery. This dynamic is leading some market participants to shift their attention toward emerging infrastructure plays.

    One such project is LiquidChain ($LIQUID), described as a Layer 3 infrastructure project. It aims to create a unified execution environment by fusing liquidity from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana into a single layer. This “deploy-once” architecture is designed to allow developers to build applications that can reach all three ecosystems simultaneously, thereby avoiding liquidity fragmentation across different chains. Key features include Single-Step Execution and Verifiable Settlement, intended to reduce the friction associated with cross-chain bridging. As of this writing, LiquidChain’s presale has raised over $965,000, with tokens priced at $0.014954.

    Market participants are awaiting a clear catalyst to drive directional movement. The outcome of the Clarity Act vote, scheduled for September 15, is cited as a potential volatility trigger for the broader altcoin market. The current market signals for Cardano are ambiguous, suggesting potential downside risk rather than a clear upward trend. Investors may find more asymmetric upside in earlier-stage infrastructure projects.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: ADA is trading at $0.205, testing a critical support level. Whether ADA will hold the $0.20 support level remains uncertain.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the market analysis in this context: Cardano news today.