XRP Struggles to Maintain Key Support as Analysts Weigh Potential Price Movements
As XRP attempts to hold a critical support level, analysts are scrutinizing key indicators that could determine whether the recent price decline is temporary or the start of a more significant correction.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
XRP continued its recent downward trend on Tuesday, falling to approximately $1.35, its lowest point since late April. The cryptocurrency has been trading between $1.36 and $1.50 for the past month, repeatedly attempting to break above the upper boundary. Last Thursday, the altcoin briefly surpassed this key resistance level, reaching a two-month high of $1.54, driven by developments related to the CLARITY Act. However, the price was quickly rejected from this level, resulting in a roughly 12% drop over the past five days.
Market analyst ChartNerd observed that XRP risks further price correction towards new lows as the altcoin retests the $1.35 area, stating that “the data speaks for itself.” The analyst pointed to several concerning signals, including significant resistance levels above and the confirmation of a “death cross” on the weekly Stoch RSI.
ChartNerd highlighted the weekly 20 and 50 EMAs, currently at $1.50 and $1.80, as crucial resistance levels that have not been retested since their January 2026 crossover, which preceded XRP’s decline to its February low of $1.11. He also noted that the weekly Stoch RSI crossover has historically marked local tops for XRP, with the last two crosses leading to deeper corrections. The most recent crossover coincided with the relief rally that preceded the weekly EMA death cross four months ago.
Following the recent rally to $1.54, the price has now retested the weekly 20 EMA for the first time since the January crossover. ChartNerd suggested that failure to break above this level and establish it as sustained support “will likely open the next leg down later this year.”
Potential Price Targets and Market Sentiment
ChartNerd emphasized that XRP must reclaim both EMAs and convert them into support to invalidate the bearish outlook, but added that “it just doesn’t feel like the right time yet.” Even if the altcoin rallies towards $1.80, the analyst believes the price will likely fail to hold that level long-term and “at least come back to, at a minimum, fill in most of this wick back down towards the lower dollar levels.” He explained that a rejection from these EMAs could potentially push the altcoin towards a cycle bottom of $0.70, a previous level of macro resistance that has not yet been retested.
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez believes XRP is poised for a significant price movement. He noted that the altcoin has been developing the “tightest Bollinger Band squeeze” on the three-day chart in over a year, describing the current compression zone as a “definitive ‘no-trade zone.’” Martinez indicated that such tight volatility compression often precedes a “violent price expansion.” He advised investors to await a clear three-day candlestick close outside of XRP’s current range, between $1.29 and $1.50, to confirm the next major trend direction. A close above the upper boundary would likely signal an expansion towards $1.80. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower boundary would invalidate the immediate bullish structure and potentially lead to a deeper correction towards the $1.00 psychological support level.
