Galaxy Digital Lowers Odds on Crypto Bill Passage Amid Senate Calendar Crunch
Galaxy Digital has significantly reduced its forecast for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, now deeming its chances a “coin toss.” The firm cited a rapidly closing window for the U.S. Senate to advance the cryptocurrency market structure legislation before its upcoming five-week August recess.
“We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50,” Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, stated in a social media post on Friday.
This latest revision marks a steady decline in Galaxy’s predictions. The firm had initially pegged the odds at 75% in May, then lowered them to 60% on June 9, before arriving at the current even-money assessment. Prediction market Polymarket offers an even more somber outlook, pricing the bill’s passage in 2026 at approximately 49%, a notable drop from a high of 74% just a month prior.
Thorn emphasized that the primary obstacle is not the bill’s substance but its timing. A unified Senate text remains elusive, a firm floor schedule is absent, and the legislative calendar is shrinking as lawmakers approach their summer break. Competition for floor time has reportedly “intensified,” Thorn noted, particularly after President Trump’s recent refusal to sign a bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act, an election measure focused on proof-of-citizenship. Surveillance and defense legislation are also vying for legislative attention.
However, a declining probability of passage does not necessarily signal the bill’s demise, according to Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey. “The drop in the probability of passage this time is merely a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal’s actual content,” Sun told Decrypt. He pointed out that prediction markets have shown odds below 50% since May, a view that is “somewhat more pessimistic than institutional forecasts.”
Sun reiterated that the core issue is the Senate’s packed schedule, with the housing bill, the SAVE Act, and other priorities continuing to dominate the agenda. Without a clear path to a vote before the recess, he warned, the CLARITY Act could be pushed into a “more complex mid-term election environment.” Nevertheless, Sun added, its prospects could improve rapidly if a final text is released in July and Senate leadership provides a definitive schedule.
The stakes for the cryptocurrency industry are considerable, Sun noted, especially in a trading environment “characterized by ETF outflows and weakening risk appetite.” The CLARITY Act, he suggested, “remains one of the few domestic U.S. policy catalysts that could potentially improve market sentiment.”
The proposed legislation aims to establish the first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets, dividing oversight responsibilities between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote in May. However, it garnered support from only two Democrats, falling short of the seven needed to overcome a 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor. Democrats, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, have advocated for ethics provisions targeting cryptocurrency ventures associated with Donald Trump, while banking and law enforcement groups have raised concerns regarding stablecoin yields and potential gaps in illicit finance prevention.
For the time being, the bill’s fate appears intertwined with the crowded legislative calendar that is also impeding other measures, including the housing bill that President Trump is currently withholding over his election-related demands. Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated to Fox Business last Wednesday that a final version of the CLARITY Act text could emerge around July 4.
