Ethereum (ETH) has faced headwinds in the first quarter of the year and the beginning of the second, but it has managed to maintain a critical level near $2,000. A new report from market analyst Sam Daodu outlines three potential scenarios for ETH for the remainder of 2026, each tied to catalysts that could propel the network’s leading altcoin back above $4,000.
Bullish Pathway For Ethereum
Daodu’s analysis begins with the price action. He notes that Ethereum has been trending downward since the start of the year, with only a brief recovery. ETH began 2026 around $3,100, subsequently dropping to a low of $1,743 in February—its weakest point since early 2023. Following this, the token has largely traded sideways between approximately $2,000 and $2,400, indicating consolidation rather than a clear rebound.
A key driver in the report is the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which Daodu believes could be the deciding factor in whether ETH revisits the $4,000 level during 2026. In his bullish scenario, Glamsterdam is assumed to launch on schedule in June. The upgrade is expected to reduce gas fees by 78.6% and increase throughput to as many as 10,000 transactions per second. Simultaneously, news surrounding the upgrade is anticipated to accelerate Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, and the report also assumes Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $90,000. With these conditions in place, Daodu suggests ETH could surpass $4,000 in the third quarter and finish the year between $5,000 and $7,500.
ETH Could Retest The February 2026 Low
In the base case scenario, the outlook is more moderate. Daodu expects Glamsterdam to launch, but without a strong immediate market reaction. ETF inflows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin is assumed to rise above $85,000 without triggering a decisive breakout that would significantly reignite risk appetite. Under this scenario, Ethereum is still projected to clear $3,000 in the third quarter, then test $4,000 in the final months of 2026. However, the year-end outcome is more restrained: ETH would close between $3,000 and $4,200.
The bearish scenario is based on delays and macroeconomic pressures. Daodu assumes Glamsterdam is either delayed until the final quarter of the year or launches with deployment issues. He also incorporates a more risk-averse environment by projecting that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000, driven by inflation data or renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with a return of ETF outflows. If these assumptions materialize, ETH would likely fail to maintain its current support and fall below $2,085. From there, the report suggests Ethereum could retest the February 2026 low near $1,743, and then end the year at or below its current price. In this bearish scenario, the possibility of Ethereum exceeding $4,000 would likely shift into a 2027 discussion rather than remaining a 2026 target.
Currently, the leading altcoin is trading at $2,134.
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