XRP Faces Steep Decline, Analysts Divided on Future Trajectory
XRP’s value has plummeted, concluding a 22% retracement over the past month and falling below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024. This sharp downturn has ignited a critical question among investors: will the altcoin recover to the $1 mark soon, or is a further decline imminent?
Bearish Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Market expert Sam Daodu has highlighted a broadly bearish technical outlook for XRP across multiple timeframes. The token is currently trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, a configuration that typically indicates sustained seller dominance. Daodu noted that support is minimal once XRP trades at $1.09, with buyers historically showing interest around $1.05 and the $1 level serving as a significant psychological floor.
Adding to the concerns, some chart analysts referenced in Daodu’s report suggest that if the current risk-off trend persists, XRP could experience an additional 40% drop, bringing its price down to approximately $0.70.
On-Chain Data Paints a Contrasting Picture
Despite the bearish technical signals, on-chain data presents a more optimistic narrative. The number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens reached a record high of 332,230 in May and has continued to grow throughout the recent downturns. Furthermore, wallets holding one million or more XRP have seen a net increase of 42 new addresses since January, marking the first growth in “millionaire” wallets since September 2025.
Whale activity also suggests a tightening of supply. Holders of 10 million or more XRP now control 45.83 billion tokens, representing 68.5% of the circulating supply – the highest concentration observed since May 2018. Additionally, whale outflow dominance on Binance recently surged to 91.4%, a level not seen since 2024. Historical data indicates that when Binance outflow dominance last reached similar peaks in October 2024, XRP subsequently rallied from around $0.50 to over $3 in the following months.
A longer-cycle technical indicator also offers a glimmer of hope. XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years. Each previous instance of this RSI reset preceded a significant reversal in XRP’s price direction, and Daodu suggests this fourth occurrence is now forming as XRP hovers around $1.09.
Policy and Market Dynamics as Potential Catalysts
While whale accumulation and long-term technical signals point towards a potential rebound, near-term catalysts are largely expected to stem from policy developments. Daodu identifies the CLARITY Act’s floor vote as a potential turning point for XRP’s outlook. The bill has advanced through the Senate Banking Committee and is now on the Senate Legislative Calendar, with a full Senate floor vote being the next crucial step.
Standard Chartered has forecast that if the CLARITY Act is passed and the broader macroeconomic environment stabilizes, XRP could reach $2.80, with a bullish scenario projecting a rise to $8. Conversely, if the bill is delayed beyond the current legislative session, the bank suggests prices could retreat to around $0.53.
Regarding the possibility of XRP falling below $1, Daodu’s assessment is conditional. He anticipates that the altcoin may test the $1 level before the current sell-off concludes, with the outcome dependent on two key factors.
Firstly, the ability of Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim and hold above $60,000 is critical. Daodu suggests that a slide in BTC towards $55,000 would likely drag XRP down, irrespective of its own fundamentals.
Secondly, the CLARITY Act must receive a Senate floor vote before the August recess. If this vote occurs and the bill is approved, it could create sufficient upside potential to attract institutional investment, potentially triggering a rally from the downturn’s low point.
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