XRP is poised at a critical juncture, with analysts suggesting the upcoming monthly candle close will dictate whether the cryptocurrency establishes a double bottom or declines towards $0.80.
Key Levels Under Scrutiny
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has identified what they term a “macro decision zone” for XRP. While the token has shown some resilience, recovering from a 19-month low of $1.05 last week, it has yet to breach levels that would instill significant confidence in bullish sentiment.
According to EGRAG, a monthly close above $1.40 would serve as confirmation that the $1.05 low marked the bottom. However, the analyst believes that a genuine bullish recovery would only commence with a reclaim of the $1.61 to $1.65 range, with a break above $1.70 providing further validation. As of now, none of these key resistance levels have been reached.
Downside Potential and Support Gaps
EGRAG also outlined a bearish scenario, positing that a loss of momentum could send XRP back down to $0.80. Notably, the analyst did not identify any intermediate support levels between the current price and that target should the structure break down.
“Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” EGRAG stated. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”
Earlier, EGRAG had noted XRP reaching $1.1860 and “building momentum for the second push,” setting a short-term target of $1.19 to $1.25. The analyst had cautioned that a drop below $1.14 would open the door to a retest of $1.10.
Complementary Technical Analysis
Market observer CasiTrades offered a complementary perspective, observing that XRP had “perfectly” touched a significant .786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase. This crypto trader also pinpointed $1.19 and $1.27 as resistance zones, suggesting that failure to overcome these levels could lead to a deeper decline toward the $0.90 area.
Conversely, if XRP manages to break through both resistance levels, it could signal the formation of a new trend rather than a precursor to another downward wave.
Long-Term Indicators and Market Context
Some traders are looking beyond immediate price action. ChartNerd pointed out that XRP has closed below its 200-week simple moving average, a development that has historically preceded cycle lows.
At the time of reporting, XRP, the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, had seen a modest gain of just over 1% in the preceding 24 hours. This uptick followed news that Japan’s SBI Bank had introduced a program allowing customers to exchange deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.
Despite this recent movement, XRP remained down by more than 8% over the past seven days, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, which had experienced a decline of approximately 5.4% in the same period. XRP has also fallen over 18% in the last month and nearly 49% year-on-year, trading 68% below its all-time high reached in July 2025.
However, the current price decline is not entirely viewed negatively. On-chain analytics platform Santiment, utilizing its 30-day MVRV metric, indicated that XRP is situated in a “fair buy” zone, suggesting it could be an opportune time for long-term investors to begin accumulating.
Looking further ahead, ChartNerd has projected potential Fibonacci extension targets for XRP at $8, $13, and $27, contingent on the formation of a proper cycle bottom before the end of the year.
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