XRP Capitulates as Profit-to-Loss Ratio Plummets

On-Chain Metrics Signal “Intense Capitulation” for XRP as Price Attempts Rebound

Market intelligence platform Glassnode has highlighted concerning on-chain metrics for XRP, suggesting weakening momentum and widespread capitulation as the cryptocurrency attempts to recover from recent lows.

Profit/Loss Ratio Hits Multi-Year Low

On Tuesday, Glassnode researchers revealed that XRP’s 90-day moving average of its Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38, its lowest point since 2024. This indicates that for every dollar of losses realized in the market, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. This marks a stark reversal from a 2025 peak where the ratio reached 50, signifying that profit-takers significantly outnumbered those selling at a loss. Glassnode affirmed that such a low ratio is a “hallmark of intense capitulation,” suggesting most participants are exiting their positions at a loss.

Network Activity Declines Sharply

Further compounding the concerns, Glassnode pointed to a significant drop in network activity. The 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network has plummeted by 91.5%, from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP. Glassnode stated this decline “reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak,” rather than a simple fee market adjustment. The decrease in these indicators suggests a weakening of investor confidence and a subdued speculative appetite.

Is XRP’s Bottom Near?

Over the past two weeks, XRP’s price has declined by nearly 15%, reaching its lowest levels since November 2024. Analyst ChartNerd noted that while XRP’s bear markets have historically lasted between 400-790 days with drops of 85-96%, the current correction has lasted approximately 350 days with a 71% retracement from July highs. However, ChartNerd observed that the duration and depth of these bear markets are diminishing, suggesting that a historical bottom could be approaching by the end of the year.

The cryptocurrency’s close below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week could also signal an impending bottom. Historically, a structural bottom has formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA, implying that XRP could begin forming its bottom in the coming months if past patterns repeat.

Meanwhile, market watcher Ali Martinez suggested that XRP might be mirroring a pattern observed since 2018, potentially approaching its largest buying zone in eight years. Martinez highlighted that touches of a rising trendline have historically marked major turning points for XRP, sending it back towards the $3 resistance. With XRP currently approaching this trendline, support is identified between $0.70 and $0.90. A hold of this zone could make a rally back to $3 a “realistic scenario.” Should XRP break above the eight-year resistance around $3.30, Martinez concluded that the next macro target could be between $8 and $13.