XRP Pullback Driven by Leverage, Not Whale Exodus, Analyst Suggests
XRP’s recent price decline is more likely attributable to leveraged positions being liquidated and general market weakness, rather than a coordinated sell-off by major holders, according to Pelin Ay, a contributor to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Ay pointed to a decrease in XRP inflows to Binance, particularly in transfers involving millions of tokens, as evidence that selling pressure from large “whale” wallets has not intensified during the recent drawdown. She presented a CryptoQuant chart illustrating XRP Ledger exchange inflows to Binance, segmented by the value of transfers, alongside XRP’s dollar price. This data categorizes inflows into bands ranging from under 1,000 XRP to over 1 million XRP, allowing for differentiation between smaller retail deposits and transfers more characteristic of whales or institutional investors.
Whale Selling Pressure Eases as Binance Inflows Drop
Historically, the largest transfer cohorts have played a significant role in Binance inflow activity, Ay noted. “Transfers exceeding 1 million XRP are dominant in the chart during certain periods,” she stated. “This shows that the majority of XRP inflows to Binance are coming from whale and institutional-scale addresses. In particular, the consistently high levels of these inflows between 2021-2025 reveal that major players are actively using Binance.”
The crucial shift, in her view, occurred after XRP’s peak in 2025. The chart indicates a noticeable decline in the largest Binance inflow bands following a period when XRP approached the $3 mark. This suggests that large holders are no longer depositing tokens onto the exchange with the same intensity observed in earlier market phases.
In exchange-flow analysis, increased inflows are often interpreted as a precursor to potential selling pressure, as assets moved to trading platforms can be sold, used as collateral, or repositioned. Ay argued that the current market structure does not mirror previous periods of aggressive distribution.
“In the past, before major drops, there were usually sudden high spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP groups,” she wrote. “Currently, at the end of the chart, there is no such extraordinary inflow surge. Therefore, on-chain data currently reduces the likelihood of aggressive whale selling and mass profit-taking.”
Leverage Liquidations Cited as Primary Driver
This distinction is central to her analysis. If XRP were experiencing a typical whale-led sell-off, the chart would likely show a sharp increase in large deposits to Binance, especially from the 100,000-to-1-million XRP and 1-million-plus XRP bands. Instead, Ay observed the opposite: inflows have cooled while the price has weakened.
“The chart suggests that the decline is largely due to leverage liquidations and overall market weakness,” she added. “Because in normal hard bear markets, much higher XRP inflows to exchanges are typically seen.”
This does not imply that XRP is without downside risk. Rather, Ay’s interpretation is that the current sell-off lacks a key on-chain signature often associated with deeper capitulation: whales moving unusually large amounts of XRP to exchanges. The source of selling pressure is therefore significant. A liquidation-driven move can accelerate rapidly as leveraged positions are forced out, but it does not necessarily indicate that long-term holders are actively distributing their holdings into the market.
Ay also linked the post-peak reduction in inflows to a weakening of spot supply pressure. “If Binance inflows continue to remain low, selling supply will decrease,” she stated. “With an increase in demand, it becomes easier for XRP to move back to the $1.8-2.0 region. Especially if sharp rises do not resume in the 1M+ XRP columns, this structure can be maintained.”
The condition is important. Her argument hinges on large Binance inflows remaining subdued, particularly in the 1-million-plus XRP band. A renewed surge in these categories would undermine her analysis, suggesting that large wallets are once again moving substantial supply toward the exchange.
At press time, XRP was trading at $1.1444.
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