A prominent cryptocurrency analyst has identified a critical technical indicator for XRP, suggesting its two-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a pivotal 50 mark. This level, according to the analyst, serves as a dividing line between a potential continuation of a broader market downturn and the commencement of a new expansionary phase for the digital asset.
XRP is currently trading around $1.12, reflecting a nearly 5% decline over the past 24 hours and an approximately 18% drop in the last month.
EGRAG CRYPTO, in a June 19 post on X, outlined a recurring pattern observed in XRP’s longer-term charts: a significant surge, followed by a cooling period, a reset, and ultimately, an expansion. The analyst noted that XRP’s two-month RSI is now positioned precisely at the 50 threshold, which he characterizes as a “battlefield level” rather than a definitive signal for either direction.
His reasoning suggests that maintaining a position above 50 indicates an attempt by momentum to stabilize. Conversely, a decisive drop below this level could pave the way for a deeper correction, potentially targeting the 43.66 RSI zone.
EGRAG CRYPTO believes that a recovery and sustained hold above the 52.85 to 55.45 range would signal a repair in macro momentum. From that point, he identifies the 80 RSI as the level where a more aggressive upward trajectory could come into play.
“The 2-month RSI does not speak often. But when it does, it speaks MACRO,” the analyst stated.
Complementing this RSI analysis, EGRAG CRYPTO also pointed to XRP’s two-month chart, which he believes is forming an ascending triangle with an A-B-C-D-E structure. He assesses that the initial four waves are complete, and the token may now be navigating the final “E” wave before attempting a breakout.
However, the analyst cautioned that his price targets remain contingent on several factors. XRP must first establish rising support, reclaim its 7-week moving average, and overcome resistance between $2.00 and $2.10. Only then would broader Fibonacci-based targets, ranging from $9.50 to an “extreme cycle extension” near $100, become relevant.
This outlook aligns with a previous analysis by EGRAG CRYPTO, where he mapped out three historical pump scenarios for XRP based on a larger triangle pattern. In that assessment, the conservative case projected a price range of $6.50 to $9.27, a “balanced” cycle case around $13, and an extreme case near $60, all modeled on XRP’s initial major cycle movement.
The broader market context for XRP has been challenging. The asset has fallen below the $1.20 support level following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and press conference. Some analysts have warned that a rejection at the $1.20 to $1.21 resistance could push the sixth-largest cryptocurrency towards the $1.00 mark.
On-chain activity has also shown a slowdown, with active addresses decreasing by nearly 50% in the past two weeks, according to analyst Ali Martinez. Furthermore, over the last five days, large holders have divested more than 30 million XRP, although they still collectively control nearly 70% of the asset’s total supply.
Despite these headwinds, a positive development has been the performance of spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). These products have continued to attract inflows even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds experienced outflows. Data from SoSoValue indicates that in the week leading up to June 18, net inflows for XRP ETFs reached $10.66 million, contrasting with the $226 million bled by BTC ETFs and the $10.05 million lost by ETH-tracking funds during the same period.
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