Crypto markets experienced a downturn over the weekend, coinciding with persistent fragility in hopes for a peace deal between the United States and Iran.
US equity market futures opened lower as investors await further details on US-Iran discussions in Switzerland, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
Meanwhile, President Trump intensified his rhetoric, posting on Truth Social on Sunday: “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!”
Key Economic Data This Week
The week’s economic calendar begins Tuesday with June’s S&P Global PMI data, followed by May’s new home sales figures on Wednesday.
However, all eyes are on Thursday’s release of the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This data comes on the heels of last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers maintained interest rates but signaled a more inflation-centric monetary policy.
A hotter-than-expected PCE reading, which is plausible given rising energy prices, could lead markets to anticipate fewer interest rate cuts, potentially pressuring risk assets.
“The June FOMC meeting, with half of the committee leaning toward a tighter policy path, sent a hawkish jolt through markets,” Bloomberg analysts noted. “Even though Warsh didn’t submit his own dot for the dot plot, his tone at the news conference seemed notably hawkish to us. A hot PCE inflation reading will likely reinforce that hawkish message.”
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the current odds for an interest rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in late July stand at approximately 40%.
Further economic insights will be provided on Thursday with the US first-quarter GDP report, which will offer a clearer picture of economic growth rates. The week concludes on Friday with June’s Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.
This Week’s Key Events:
- Tuesday: June S&P Global PMI data
- Wednesday: May New Home Sales data
- Thursday: May PCE Inflation data
- Thursday: US Q1 2026 GDP data
- Friday: June MI Consumer Sentiment data
- Friday: June MI Inflation Expectations data
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets traded mostly flat over the weekend, with total capitalization hovering around $2.3 trillion. Increased volatility is anticipated this week, with a downward trend appearing to be the most probable path.
Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range near $64,000 as of Monday morning in Asia. While it briefly dipped towards $63,000, it quickly recovered. The weekly closing price of $63,267 has established a support base.
Ether prices remain at multi-year lows, struggling to surpass the $1,700 mark, while most altcoins continue to decline.
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