XRP experienced a roughly 5% surge over the past 24 hours, allowing the token to reclaim the $1.10 mark. Despite this short-term recovery, XRP remains more than 50% below its value from a year ago.
Recent on-chain data indicates that the sustained downturn has driven key holder metrics to historically extreme levels.
According to Santiment, XRP holders are currently experiencing some of the weakest average returns in the asset’s history. Its 30-day MVRV has dropped to -45%, and its 365-day MVRV stands at -47%, signaling that both short-term and long-term holders are significantly underwater.
For the first time in XRP’s nearly 12-year history, both short- and long-term holders are facing record-low average returns, a situation that reflects unusually high levels of fear and frustration. Santiment cautioned that this does not preclude further price declines if the broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure.
However, from a risk-reward standpoint, the firm believes that buying or increasing exposure to XRP at current levels carries less risk than usual. This is because much of the potential downside has already been absorbed by existing holders, a condition that has historically preceded stronger market setups.
In parallel, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the SuperTrend indicator has issued its first buy signal for XRP since mid-June. He pointed out that the previous buy signal was followed by a 14% rally, and the indicator had also accurately identified the last two major declines of 19% and 16%.
Martinez’s earlier analysis also revealed an uptick in XRP’s network activity. Daily active addresses have climbed from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 40,000, suggesting increased on-chain participation.
On the institutional front, U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs attracted over $59 million in net inflows throughout June. Following two consecutive days of outflows, these funds returned to positive territory on July 3, bringing in $6.55 million.
Data from SoSoValue indicated that Bitwise’s ETF accounted for the largest portion of the day’s inflows.
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