Bitcoin’s Bear Market: Has the Worst Passed?
Bitcoin’s recent slide to approximately $57,700 at the close of June may signal the end of the most severe phase of its 2026 bear market, according to a new market analysis released by BIT on July 17.
The crypto investment firm, which accurately predicted much of Bitcoin’s recent decline, now advises traders to evaluate whether this low point represents the conclusion of the correction or merely a temporary reprieve before a further downturn.
BIT’s latest report builds upon research published on June 12, where the firm posited that Bitcoin had entered the final stage of its bear market. At that time, BIT outlined an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction pattern originating in October 2025. This pattern predicted an initial sell-off into the $60,000 to $69,000 range, followed by a rebound towards $80,000 to $90,000, and culminating in a final Wave C drop during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is scheduled to conclude on July 19.
This forecast has largely materialized. Bitcoin initially plunged from around $97,000 to $62,900 in February of this year before recovering to approximately $82,000 in May, an event the report characterized as a “counter-trend rally within a bear market.” Subsequently, the cryptocurrency fell further, eventually reaching $57,700 at the end of June, a decline attributed to geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, which exerted significant pressure on risk assets.
In its July 17 update, BIT acknowledged that it had underestimated the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which contributed to higher-than-expected inflation, and the hawkish stance adopted by the new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. Despite these factors, the firm maintained that the broader price structure closely aligned with its initial outlook.
The earlier report also highlighted several technical indicators suggesting a potential market bottom, including historically depressed sentiment and oversold stochastic readings. Furthermore, at that time, Bitcoin was trading significantly below its weekly moving average. The new analysis shifts focus to the 21-week moving average, identifying it as a crucial indicator for determining whether the market has transitioned back into a longer-term uptrend.
However, not all market observers agree that a bottom is forming. For instance, IT Tech, a contributor to CryptoQuant, expressed skepticism in a note titled “You really think the bottom is already in?” IT Tech pointed to a notable decline in spot Bitcoin ETF flows in 2026, which had been a primary driver of the cryptocurrency’s rally over the past two years.
In 2024, cumulative net inflows exceeded 500,000 BTC, with 2025 recording similarly robust inflows of approximately 250,000 BTC. In contrast, 2026 has witnessed outflows of roughly 120,000 BTC. This trend leads the analyst to question: “If ETF demand drove the rally up, how can you be bullish while that demand reversed completely?” According to IT Tech, the market is currently experiencing headwinds rather than tailwinds.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $65,000 mark following the release of U.S. CPI data that came in significantly lower than market expectations. However, these gains were quickly eroded by sellers. At the time of writing, the asset was trading near $63,000, representing a nearly 3% decrease over 24 hours and approximately 2% over the past week. The cryptocurrency remains over 50% below its all-time high.
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