Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reiterated his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, telling CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that he still anticipates the cryptocurrency will reach $400,000 by 2030. He described this target as “reasonable,” despite Bitcoin currently trading around $77,000.
Bitcoin’s Cycle and Halving
Armstrong pointed to Bitcoin’s frequently discussed four-year cycle, which typically involves a period of rapid ascent and euphoria, followed by a year-long downturn. “We’ve actually just come across the one-year mark for this down period,” he stated, adding his personal belief that “the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle” after its recent climb from approximately $60,000.
He also noted a historical trend of “runups” preceding Bitcoin halving events, with the next scheduled in about 18 months. “I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” Armstrong predicted.
Achieving $400,000 would represent a fivefold increase in just over three years. This downturn has already led Coinbase to cut 14% of its staff and miss second-quarter earnings as trading volumes declined.
Regulatory Optimism in Washington
Armstrong expressed greater confidence regarding the regulatory landscape in Washington. He anticipates the Clarity Act will receive a “yes vote” when the Senate votes on September 15, based on his conversations with stakeholders. He indicated that law enforcement groups, numerous banks, and crypto companies are supportive, and that objections previously raised by Coinbase have been addressed.
A remaining point of contention involves ethics rules pertaining to the president’s family’s cryptocurrency ventures. Armstrong described a provision offered by the White House as “unprecedented” for a sitting president, while Democrats are pushing for divestiture. He characterized these ongoing discussions as “a little above our pay grade” but close to a resolution.
Divergent Predictions and Existing Authority
Users of the prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, do not share Armstrong’s optimism. They have assigned only a 17% probability to the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026.
However, Armstrong suggested that the outcome of the Clarity Act might not be critical. He cited statements from the SEC and CFTC indicating their readiness to issue rulemaking and innovation exemptions under their existing authorities. Regardless of the Clarity Act’s passage, he expects regulatory clarity within the next month.
Precedent and Future Offerings
Armstrong referenced last year’s Genius Act as a precedent, highlighting that over 150 major companies integrated stablecoins within three months of its passage. He believes the Clarity Act would similarly enable U.S. customers to access tokenized equities and perpetual futures.
Coinbase has been proactively developing capabilities in these areas. In June, the company unveiled plans for tokenized stock trading with automatic dividends, which Armstrong contrasted with competitors offering “some form of derivative or IOU.” The exchange also secured approval in May to offer crypto perpetual futures, becoming the first U.S. exchange to do so. Executives have articulated an ambition for Coinbase to become the “everything exchange.”
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