Galaxy Research Head Sees Bitcoin Bottom, Advises Accumulation
Alex Thorn, Global Head of Research at Galaxy, posted on X on October 26, 2026, stating his belief that Bitcoin has bottomed out in the current bear market. He cited significantly reduced selling pressure, a strengthening narrative of fiat currency devaluation, and a substantial exit of speculative capital as key indicators. Thorn asserted that these conditions present a strategic opportunity to increase holdings.
Key Observations Point to Market Bottom
In his post on X (@intangiblecoins), Thorn outlined four critical observations supporting his view that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is in place: diminished selling pressure, a reinforced argument for fiat currency devaluation, the departure of speculative funds, and a shift in market sentiment. He believes the simultaneous occurrence of these factors signals an opportune moment to accumulate Bitcoin.
Thorn noted that Bitcoin held dormant for over five years has been consistently mobilized over the past two years. The monthly outflow averaged 67,000 BTC in 2024, decreasing to 47,000 BTC in 2025. He emphasized that since the start of 2026, the average monthly outflow has further declined to 34,000 BTC, representing only half of the peak outflow seen in 2024. This, he argued, indicates a significant waning of selling momentum from early profit-takers.
Institutional and Speculative Capital Retreat
Citing data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Thorn pointed out that asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have fallen from a historical high of 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, a decrease of 57%. He also mentioned that leveraged funds’ net short positions have shrunk from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. Thorn interpreted this as evidence that “hot money,” previously driven by basis trading and macro speculation, has largely exited the market.
Fiat Devaluation Narrative Gains Traction
Thorn highlighted in his post that U.S. federal debt has surpassed the $40.44 trillion mark, with annual interest expenses reaching $1.28 trillion. He argued that a nation with a 5% yield on its national debt and an annual fiscal deficit of $2 trillion faces a continuously rising probability of fiat currency devaluation in the medium term. He stated directly that shorting stocks and hard assets at this juncture is essentially a bet against fiat currency.
Historical Parallels in Market Sentiment
He observed that market sentiment has, for the third time, shifted towards the narrative of “blockchain, not Bitcoin.” Thorn recalled similar periods in 2016 and between 2018 and 2019, when Wall Street’s focus was on enterprise-grade blockchain technology rather than Bitcoin itself. He believes history demonstrates that each divergence between technological enthusiasm and asset neglect has paved the way for Bitcoin’s next supercycle of upward momentum.
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