Wintermute Fuels Liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket

Wintermute, a major market maker in the cryptocurrency industry, confirmed on Friday that it is providing liquidity on prediction markets.

The London-based firm, which claims to process over $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, announced in a blog post that it has been actively “quoting two-sided markets across event contracts on leading venues.”

A source familiar with the matter told Decrypt that these venues include Polymarket and Kalshi. This suggests that capital is flowing dynamically between the two platforms, a process designed to make it easier for traders to buy and sell positions without significant price fluctuations.

Liquidity and Market Development

In a statement, Wintermute’s Head of OTC Trading, Jake Ostrovskis, described the liquidity profile for prediction markets as being in an “early-stage,” a characteristic that contrasts with growing demand.

“For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity,” he said. “That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices.”

The announcement underscores a fundamental operational connection between two companies operating in an emerging market. Kalshi has repeatedly stated that its business is exclusively based in the U.S., while Polymarket’s primary venue operates offshore.

The Role of Liquidity Providers

Rather than betting on the outcome of an event, liquidity providers aim to facilitate trades, primarily profiting from the “spread,” or the difference in costs associated with buy and sell orders. In a casino analogy, they would be akin to card dealers rather than gamblers.

Wintermute stated that its involvement in the prediction market space transforms the platforms from “a nice forecasting tool into a broader venue for trading event risk,” adding that providing liquidity enhances the reliability of the probabilities displayed on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order on Friday allowing Kalshi to offer perpetual futures in the U.S. that are tied to Bitcoin’s price. Last year, Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy told Bloomberg that the firm plans to place a “new added focus on the U.S.”