Crypto Fuels Speculation Ahead of SpaceX IPO
As Wall Street braces for SpaceX’s highly anticipated initial public offering, the cryptocurrency industry is providing investors with a range of avenues to speculate on the rocket-maker’s debut, which is valued at an estimated $1.75 trillion. With traditional brokerage accounts heavily oversubscribed, digital asset markets are enabling a broader spectrum of participation.
These alternative investment options include wagers placed on prediction markets, bets executed through perpetual futures contracts, and the acquisition of synthetic assets designed to track the performance of Elon Musk’s aerospace company.
It is important to note that many of these crypto-based products do not offer dividends, voting rights, or a direct claim on SpaceX’s assets. Furthermore, a significant portion of these offerings are not accessible to U.S. investors, a situation influenced by the evolving regulatory landscape surrounding tokenized assets.
These diverse offerings highlight the increasing convergence of traditional and digital asset markets. However, SpaceX’s high-stakes IPO is poised to serve as a critical test case, potentially exerting considerable influence on market sentiment towards these emerging investment vehicles.
The emergence of these crypto-linked products follows a period of scrutiny. Approximately a year ago, controversy arose around “stock tokens” offered by Robinhood to European customers, which were linked to companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. The ChatGPT creator had asserted that these tokens did not represent actual shares, prompting Robinhood to clarify that they were “tokenized contracts that follow their price, recorded on a blockchain.”
On the prediction market platform Polymarket, users can currently place wagers on SpaceX’s closing market capitalization on its debut day, with projections ranging between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion. Notably, Kalshi, a U.S.-based and regulated platform, is not facilitating similar bets.
Meanwhile, Myriad, a prediction market operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, indicated a 94% probability that SpaceX’s market cap would exceed $1.3 trillion on Friday.
Payward, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, is offering tokens backed by SpaceX shares, priced at the firm’s fixed offering rate of $135 per share. These tokens, available through xStocks, aim to provide access to overseas investors who often face challenges participating in U.S. IPOs, and are now accessible in over 100 countries.
“A retail investor in Medellín, Madrid, or Malaysia can have similar access,” stated Mark Greenberg, Global Head of Payward Services, earlier this month. “Going public should mean public to everyone.”
Coinbase International has introduced a pre-IPO perpetual futures contract for SpaceX, referencing the company’s implied market valuation. According to the exchange’s website, positions are scheduled to adjust accordingly once the rocket-maker officially debuts.
On the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, traders can speculate on SpaceX using similar perpetual derivatives, which trade 24/7 and do not expire. As of this report, a market established via TradeXYZ valued Musk’s firm at $168 per share.
Even as SpaceX’s IPO approached, crypto exchanges continued to launch new products. Backpack, for instance, has introduced a service enabling users to trade Solana-based tokens tied to SpaceX on its platform or within self-custodial wallets, with the intention of these tokens being redeemable for traditional stock.
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