Meta Explores Prediction Markets with New App, Arena
Meta is reportedly developing a new application called Arena, designed to function as a prediction market where users can wager points on real-world outcomes, rather than actual currency.
According to The New York Times, the app will operate independently of Meta’s core platforms like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. The tech giant intends to leverage its existing social media audience to drive adoption for the new product.
Citing sources familiar with the project, The Times reported on June 23 that Arena, while still in an experimental phase, is a high-priority initiative for Mark Zuckerberg. The initial iteration is expected to utilize a points-based system, akin to video games, and will not require users to stake real money. However, the possibility of introducing real-money betting at a later stage has not been ruled out by these sources.
Arena is one of several standalone applications Meta is currently developing. Another in the pipeline is Meta Photos, an app that employs artificial intelligence to generate novel forms of media. This strategic shift towards standalone apps appears to stem from a broader challenge faced by the multinational technology company. As Facebook and Instagram have increasingly prioritized video content, there are fewer opportunities within these platforms to test new product concepts, prompting Meta to explore external ventures.
This is not the first time Zuckerberg has ventured into the realm of prediction markets. In 2020, his company launched Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction market app that emerged during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecast employed a similar points-based structure but was ultimately shut down in 2022.
In recent years, Meta has also attempted to capitalize on emerging social trends with varying degrees of success. This includes incorporating features from platforms like Snapchat and TikTok, with mixed results, as well as developing apps focused on podcasts, travel, and matchmaking, which largely failed to gain traction.
The current landscape for prediction markets, however, presents a different dynamic. The sector is experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket collectively facilitating $51 billion in trades in 2025. This year’s volume has already surpassed that figure, reaching $130 billion.
Further underscoring the market’s momentum, Kalshi recently concluded a funding round that valued the company at $22 billion after raising $1 billion. Polymarket was reportedly in discussions in April to secure $400 million at a $15 billion valuation. Analysts at Bernstein project that by 2030, the total annual volume of prediction markets could reach $1 trillion.
Meta is not alone in recognizing the potential of the prediction market space. Several cryptocurrency companies have already established a presence. In March, Binance integrated a prediction market feature into its wallet, and Hyperliquid launched its own macro prediction markets the following month. Coinbase and Crypto.com also offer products in this category, and Trump Media has similarly announced plans to enter the market.
Despite the burgeoning growth, the sector has also encountered legal challenges. Federal prosecutors have charged a U.S. Special Forces soldier with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket concerning a covert operation targeting Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, resulting in a $400,000 gain.
Concerns have also been raised regarding data integrity and trading practices on certain platforms. In June, blockchain investigator ZachXBT issued a warning that Rain Protocol, a prediction market project valued at nearly $9 billion, was exhibiting signs of on-chain price manipulation.
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