Bitcoin has surged above a significant long-term technical threshold, which analytics firm CryptoQuant identifies as a historical indicator of major shifts in the cryptocurrency’s market cycle. The digital asset closed above its 365-day moving average, hovering near $80,500, for the first time since March 2023.
At that previous juncture, Bitcoin was trading around $86,000 when it achieved the same milestone. CryptoQuant stated that this latest move confirms the commencement of a new bull market, citing similar instances of breaking above this average that preceded substantial rallies in 2019 and 2023.
The firm also highlighted periods when Bitcoin fell below this critical average, including the peak of the 2021 market cycle and the downturn in November 2025. Rather than viewing the 365-day average as a short-term trading tool, analysts characterize it as a gauge of broader market cycles.
Bitcoin had remained below this level for an extended duration prior to the recent advance, making its reclaim a notable development in its longer-term structural trend. This price action follows earlier positive signals from CryptoQuant’s internal market indicators, which had already shifted towards a more optimistic outlook several weeks ago.
These indicators, including the firm’s Bull Score Index and Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, both moved into an early bull market phase by mid-August. The recent price performance has now aligned with these earlier on-chain signals.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has successfully navigated a significant supply barrier situated between $76,000 and $81,000. This zone was previously held by long-term investors and wallets that had remained inactive for over seven years. According to CryptoQuant, a substantial portion of these coins were sold earlier this year, creating considerable overhead supply that Bitcoin has now overcome.
The next significant supply area is identified between $88,000 and $90,000, where another large concentration of coins is held. This range also coincides with the upper boundary of traders’ realized price, positioning it as a key level to monitor as Bitcoin’s price continues to climb.
Below the current trading price, support is expected to hold around the 200-day moving average, which is near $70,600, and the recently reclaimed 365-day average. CryptoQuant cautioned that pullbacks remain a possibility even after a positive signal for the broader market cycle emerges.
Against this backdrop, the latest upward movement follows months of consolidation after Bitcoin’s decline last year. Market participants will be closely observing whether Bitcoin can sustain its position above the 365-day average and approach the $88,000 to $90,000 supply zone.
