Tag: Market Trends

Bitcoin’s anticipated recovery appears increasingly unlikely as a bearish flag formation takes shape. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen below $74,000 in the last 24 hours, and one analyst believes this latest move is part of a larger decline. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,240, down approximately 3.2% for the day. This drop has made a bearish TradingView analysis by Xanrox more relevant, as the analyst warned that Bitcoin could fall below its current structure and begin a wider move down to $44,000.

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Structure Nears Completion

According to Xanrox, a crypto analyst on social media, Bitcoin’s bear market structure is approximately 70% complete. Xanrox’s prediction is based on the premise that Bitcoin has been undergoing a large corrective structure since its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s chart reveals three separate bearish flag formations on the daily candlestick timeframe. The first is a small bearish flag, the second a medium bearish flag, and the third, a larger bearish flag, is currently developing around the current trading range.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests Bitcoin’s price action since October is following an ABC corrective pattern, with wave B now complete. This analysis indicates the Bitcoin bear market is about 70% complete, but the most significant downturn is yet to come.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

The forecast suggests the current Bitcoin correction will continue for months along a defined path. The first major level to watch is the lower boundary of the bearish flag, with the $71,000 region being a key level. A break below $71,000 would strengthen the bearish setup and could lead to another move towards the early February low around $63,000.

The overall forecast points to a deeper correction, with the chart indicating Bitcoin is moving through the stages of a corrective C-wave that might bottom out around $44,000. Xanrox identified this level as a strong point of control on the weekly candlestick chart, representing a high-volume zone that could attract price if it breaks below $63,000.

The timeline for this prediction extends into the second half of the year. The projected bottom is expected around September or October 2026, followed by a stronger recovery through October, November, and December. The roadmap then points to a larger bull cycle after the correction ends, in 2027 and 2028, with Bitcoin potentially reaching as high as $200,000 by 2028.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, has also cited October 2026 as his base-case bottom for Bitcoin’s bear market, aligning with Xanrox’s timeline.

Bitcoin’s price experienced a sharp $2,000 decline immediately following Donald Trump’s most explicit pro-crypto statement to date, where he vowed he would “never let crypto down.” The subsequent drop in Bitcoin’s price revealed the current market sentiment.

Market Reaction

Instead of initiating a sustained rally, the statement triggered a distribution event, liquidating leveraged long positions clustered near the $70,000 resistance level and pushing Bitcoin significantly lower within hours.

Traders on Crypto Twitter are referring to this as the “Reverse Midas Touch,” a pattern where Trump’s most bullish pronouncements consistently lead to sell-offs rather than sustained buying. This dynamic is increasingly understood as a “sell-the-news” event, where political headlines provide exit liquidity for large holders rather than stimulating new structural demand.

Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance

Trump’s statement, delivered in late May 2026 as part of an intensified effort to secure the crypto vote ahead of the next election cycle, positioned his administration as the definitive protector of digital assets in America.

This rhetoric was directly linked to the White House’s concurrent legislative push, urging Congress to pass a comprehensive crypto market-structure bill that would reshape U.S. oversight of trading, stablecoins, and custody arrangements.

This framing represented the most aggressive pro-crypto positioning Trump has adopted since reversing his 2021 stance, when he called Bitcoin a “scam.”

His team has also accepted crypto campaign donations and launched NFT collections under the Trump brand, but the “never let crypto down” line was qualitatively different – a direct, unconditional promise. The market’s immediate response was therefore particularly telling.

Price Action and Liquidation

Bitcoin was trading near the $70,000 resistance zone when the statement was released. The rejection was immediate, with Bitcoin dropping approximately $2,000, leaving the asset well below that level within the same trading session.

The decline was triggered by Iran’s retaliatory strike and the market’s anticipation of further escalation rather than a peace deal.

Liquidation heatmaps indicated a dense cluster of long positions being cleared out at the $70,000 level, consistent with institutional or whale-scale selling into the retail enthusiasm generated by the headline.

ETF Data and Market Sentiment

ETF flow data further supported this picture. A $1.289 billion IBIT movement executed via a dark pool, the largest off-exchange trade of its kind on record, had already signaled that large holders were repositioning rather than accumulating. This behavior is indicative of distribution, not accumulation.

This pattern has precedent. On May 18, 2026, Bitcoin fell approximately 2.4% to $76,500 after Trump issued a sharp geopolitical warning to Iran, with Ether falling 3.5% to $2,116 in the same move. Trump-related headlines have now triggered downside in crypto on multiple occasions, making the directional bias increasingly difficult to ignore.

XRP Faces Potential Downturn, According to Technical Analyst

XRP’s weekly chart suggests a bearish continuation pattern, according to Aksel Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and experienced chart analyst. Kibar’s analysis indicates a possible price decline towards $0.75 if the current consolidation phase breaks down.

Kibar, who posts under the TechCharts account on X, has over 15 years of experience in global equity market analysis. He previously worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at Yapi Kredi Bank in Turkey and the National Bank of Abu Dhabi. His expertise has been recognized by veteran commodity trader Peter Brandt, who has described Kibar as “the most accomplished pure classical chart analyst alive today.”

Resistance at $1.60 Stalls XRP

Kibar’s recent analysis of XRP is concise: “$XRPUSD 1.6 resistance. Latest consolidation below the resistance and can act as a bearish continuation.” The chart, sourced from Bitstamp’s weekly timeframe, shows XRP trading around $1.28 after failing to surpass the $1.60 resistance level. This level is significant as it previously served as a support zone during the 2025 range, which peaked around $3.45. After XRP lost this support, the same zone has become a resistance level.

The current price action reveals a triangular consolidation pattern. The upper boundary of this triangle slopes downward from the failed recovery attempt, while the lower boundary rises from the post-breakdown lows. In classical charting, such a structure can resolve in either direction, but its location is crucial. A triangle forming after a major breakdown and below former support often signals a potential continuation pattern unless buyers can push the price back above the resistance.

Kibar’s $0.75 target is derived from the pattern’s measured move. The widest part of the triangle spans from approximately $1.67 to $1.12, a range of about $0.55. If XRP breaks below the triangle near $1.30, subtracting the $0.55 range yields a downside objective near $0.75. This target is a projected extension of the current compression if the market confirms a breakdown. However, the setup requires confirmation through a decisive break below the triangle before it can be considered a completed bearish signal.

Long-Term Trend Filter Adds to Bearish Outlook

Kibar also incorporates a long-term trend filter in his analysis. In the cryptocurrency market, he often uses the 365-day exponential moving average as a primary directional filter. When the price is above this average, it generally supports a more constructive bias; when the price is below it, caution is advised, especially when rallies stall below resistance.

In XRP’s case, the price is trading below the red long-term moving average at $1.74, while the average itself is above the current consolidation. This further reinforces the bearish interpretation. Buyers need to invalidate the triangle breakdown risk and also repair the broader trend structure by reclaiming lost resistance and moving back above the long-term average.

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $1.29.

Crypto Market Plummets Amid Outflows and Geopolitical Concerns

Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn on Thursday morning, falling below $73,000 and trading at $73,260, a 3.4% decrease in the last 24 hours. This marks a six-week low for the cryptocurrency.

The price drop appears to be driven by two primary factors: escalating tensions in the Iran conflict and the largest single-day outflow from Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

Renewed strikes and the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Iran led to a 2.5% increase in oil prices and a general decline in risk assets. The optimism from the previous weekend’s peace deal quickly dissipated.

The Bitcoin ETF landscape is particularly concerning. Tuesday saw outflows of -$733.40 million, the worst single day since January 29. Combined with Monday’s -$333.60 million, the two-day total outflow exceeds $1 billion. Eight consecutive trading days of outflows have now erased over $2.6 billion from Bitcoin ETFs since May 15.

Other major cryptocurrencies also suffered losses. Ethereum fell below $2,000 for the first time since April, trading at $1,983 and down 33% year-to-date. Even HYPE, which has been a standout performer this year with a 123% YTD increase, is down 10% today, trading at $56.44. The $6.25 billion options expiry today, with max pain at $75,000, indicates the market is currently $1,700 below max pain heading into settlement.

Broader markets also reflect the downturn, with gold down 1.4% at $4,386 and stock futures in the red, including a 0.5% drop in the Nasdaq. While the market is experiencing a widespread decline, the crypto market is feeling the effects most acutely.

Crypto IPO Wave Could Create a $1 Trillion Public Market

Jefferies anticipates a surge in crypto and blockchain-related public listings over the next two years, projecting the sector could become a $1 trillion public market within five years.

The bank released this report following its first Digital Assets Investor Conference in New York, where 35 digital asset company executives met with approximately 150 institutional investors. The discussions marked a shift from previous years, with institutional investors now focusing on integrating blockchain infrastructure into core financial systems, including tokenized money market funds, private credit, and settlement networks, rather than solely speculating on Bitcoin price.

Specifically, Jefferies is monitoring the IPO pipeline, which includes Kraken parent Payward (confidential S-1 filed, $20 billion valuation raise underway), Securitize (SEC-registered tokenization platform), Blockchain.com (S-1 filed last week), and Gemini.

Beyond crypto-native companies, the bank identifies traditional financial firms, including settlement networks and payment processors, as potential candidates for public listings tied to blockchain infrastructure build-outs. This projection comes as Ledger, ConsenSys, and other firms have delayed IPO plans due to a 75% year-to-date decrease in crypto trading volumes. Fundstrat estimates that these processes are “70-80% along the way” and ready to accelerate once markets recover.

Crypto’s Political Spending Is Shifting Republican

While Fairshake and its affiliates remain a dominant force in crypto-driven elections, several new crypto PACs have emerged with a Republican focus, potentially shifting the bipartisan energy carefully cultivated over multiple campaign cycles. The Texas primary runoffs on Tuesday highlighted this shift.

Crypto-focused political committees spent over $9 million in Texas, contributing to a series of primary victories for industry-aligned candidates across both parties. Notably, they helped oust Rep. Al Green, a vocal crypto critic, in a rare incumbent-on-incumbent primary runoff.

The new Republican focus is coming from a second layer of PACs operating alongside FairShake. Fellowship PAC, associated with Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald, spent $500,000 supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s successful challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, a race FairShake’s bipartisan structure couldn’t enter. Paxton is more inclined towards crypto deregulation than Cornyn. The Winklevoss twins have also launched their own GOP-only groups.

While FairShake continues its bipartisan efforts, newer PACs are exclusively Republican, creating a redundant political layer that covers both party tracks simultaneously. They have achieved some success so far.

Google Engineer Busted for Inside Trading on Polymarket

Michele Spagnuolo, a Google security engineer, has been arrested and charged with insider trading for allegedly placing bets on Polymarket based on Google search data, according to US officials on Wednesday.

A complaint unsealed by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York alleges that Spagnuolo used “material nonpublic information” to place bets on who would appear on Google’s list of most-searched-for individuals for 2025, after Polymarket began offering these markets last fall.

Spagnuolo, 36, used the pseudonym AlphaRaccoon. He allegedly used confidential Google data to predict that singer D4vd would be named the most-searched person – a result announced publicly on December 4, 2025. He transferred $3.8 million in USDC to his Polymarket address to make the bets, and profited $1.2 million. He then moved those funds out using a swapping service and privacy tool, ultimately transferring the funds to a processor in Italy. He faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.

This is the second Polymarket insider trading case the SDNY has brought this year, the first involving Army Special Forces soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who bet on the Maduro raid he participated in.

XRP Price Dips Below $1.30

The price of XRP has fallen, dropping over 3% in a day to trade at $1.29. The $1.30 support level, previously considered the floor of this corrective cycle, has been breached due to sustained selling pressure. However, at least one analyst believes the primary driver of this movement is not reflected on the XRP chart, but rather in Washington.

Finance expert Levi Rietveld gained significant attention this week after posting on X: “I TOLD YOU XRP FAM!!!! ITS HAPPENING!!!! THE SEC IS DOING IT!!!” He included a video in which he argued that the Federal Reserve is preparing to inject an initial $7 billion into the economy next week, marking the beginning of a quantitative easing cycle.

Rietveld suggests that coordinated liquidity expansion across the U.S., China, and Europe would significantly increase the global M2 money supply, driving capital into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. He posits that an increase in the dollar supply would lead investors to seek higher yields on the risk curve.

Regardless of the Federal Reserve’s actions, XRP’s price structure has weakened considerably over the past 48 hours.

The 89% bearish sentiment reading, combined with an Extreme Fear score of 25 on the Fear & Greed Index, accurately reflects market sentiment. XRP has lost 10% of its value in the last two weeks and is significantly below its peak of $3.65.

Trading volume has surged to over $2 billion, primarily driven by sellers liquidating their holdings.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, XRP has broken down from a triangle/pennant formation, lost the $1.35 pivot, and is now declining from the $1.30–$1.32 demand zone that previously triggered a strong upward movement. The 50-day moving average is trending downward, and the price is establishing lower lows, indicative of a bearish market structure.

The $1.30 level represents the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern. A close below this level could trigger an 18% decline towards the $1.12–$1.20 area, which is now occurring.

If the price closes below $1.30 today, it would likely confirm a prolonged breakdown, with potential downside targets at $1.20 and possibly $1.10 if selling accelerates.

Market Dynamics and Alternative Investments

For traders reevaluating their positions at current XRP levels, where potential gains to significant resistance at $1.60 are approximately 20% and the downside risk to $1.10 is equally significant, the risk-reward ratio appears unfavorable.

As XRP struggles to recover, capital is visibly shifting towards higher-beta opportunities.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HY PER) is one presale attracting attention. It is positioned as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, offering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution on top of Bitcoin’s security layer, with performance metrics exceeding Solana.

The presale has raised $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136, with a 36% APY staking rewards program for early participants. The Decentralized Canonical Bridge allows for native BTC transfers into the ecosystem without the counterparty risk associated with wrapped tokens.