Tag: Market Trends

Dogecoin Rally Setup Revived Amidst Technical Analysis

Dogecoin has been trading around the $0.10 mark for several months. However, a new monthly chart shared by market analyst @TATrader_Alan is drawing comparisons to the pattern that preceded the cryptocurrency’s significant rally in 2021. The analyst highlights a recurring triangle formation that has appeared before each major Dogecoin expansion cycle. The current setup is now approaching the same breakout zone that historically triggered substantial upward momentum.

Dogecoin Rally Setup Reappears

The analyst’s latest monthly chart reveals a repeating formation observed across three distinct market cycles. In each instance, Dogecoin traded within a narrowing triangle structure for months before experiencing a sharp, vertical advance. The first instance occurred before the 2017 bull market, while the second preceded the massive 2021 breakout, which delivered gains exceeding 30,000% from cycle lows.

The chart shows that both previous formations followed nearly identical patterns. Price gradually compressed between descending resistance and rising support lines before eventually breaking upward with force. Following the breakout, Dogecoin entered a rapid expansion phase characterized by large green monthly candles and increased momentum.

The current structure appears to mirror those earlier conditions closely. Dogecoin has spent several years tightening within converging trendlines, with the price now positioned near the formation’s apex. According to the chart projection, this region historically marked the beginning of Dogecoin’s most significant advances.

The pattern’s long-term timeframe is notable. Monthly structures often carry greater technical significance because they reflect broader investor positioning and multi-year market behavior rather than short-term volatility. Analysts tracking the setup believe the extended compression phase could amplify the intensity of any eventual breakout move if historical behavior repeats.

Monthly Breakout Signals Growing Momentum

The formation’s timing is also attracting attention because Dogecoin continues to hold near the psychologically important $0.10 level on the monthly chart. Despite broader market fluctuations, the asset has maintained support around that range while gradually pressing against descending resistance that has capped price action since the previous cycle peak.

The analyst’s projection suggests the breakout zone has now been reached, mirroring the positioning seen before earlier rallies. On the chart, projected purple candles indicate a possible expansion phase that could push Dogecoin toward levels not seen since the previous bull market’s peak.

Beyond the technical structure, market participants are also watching growing institutional involvement in the digital asset sector. Speculation surrounding crypto-based exchange-traded products, renewed meme coin activity, and increased retail participation have all contributed to improving sentiment around Dogecoin in recent months.

While the chart does not guarantee another parabolic rally, the similarity between the current structure and the formations that preceded previous rallies has become difficult for traders to ignore. With Dogecoin now at another critical monthly inflection point, analysts believe the coming months could determine whether the meme coin will experience another historic rally.

CharuSan Reiterates Bullish XRP Prediction, Addressing Market Cap Concerns

Crypto analyst CharuSan has again commented on his prediction that XRP could surge above $300, addressing concerns about the token’s potential market capitalization. He argues that the market cap metric is not a relevant factor for XRP’s price trajectory.

Trillion-Dollar Markets as Catalyst

In a post on X, CharuSan pointed to the vast sums of money in global Nostro/Vostro accounts, the foreign exchange markets, major banks, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), and institutional corporations as reasons why XRP could reach $300. He suggested that a bridge asset carrying this volume would need to reach a value of $10 trillion to prevent the system from becoming congested.

The analyst emphasized that XRP is designed as an institutional bridge asset and liquidity tool, specifically engineered to facilitate large cross-border value transfers without slippage. He further explained that the market cap metric is more applicable to stocks and not to institutional bridge assets or liquidity tools like XRP. CharuSan believes that traditional financiers misunderstand this, dismissing an $8 to $10 trillion market cap as unrealistic. He clarified that market capitalization does not imply that all circulating coins will be cashed out at the current price; it is simply the unit price of the last transaction multiplied by the supply.

CharuSan previously predicted that XRP would rally to $300 as banks adopt it for cross-border transactions. He explained that a high price is necessary to avoid bottlenecks and slippage during settlements. The analyst also cited the CLARITY Act as a potential catalyst for increased bank adoption of XRP.

On-Chain Data Suggests XRP Could Be Undervalued

On-chain analytics platform Santiment has also weighed in on XRP’s potential for a rebound. In an X post, they noted that the average XRP trader active in the past 30 days is down approximately 47%, with many selling at a loss. Santiment stated that the market value-to-realized value ratio (MVRV) historically averages out to 0%, making the current period an “extreme” zone for XRP.

Santiment noted that XRP’s 30-day MVRV has reached its lowest level since December 2020, indicating that fear and frustration among traders have reached rare extremes. Historically, such conditions have preceded strong rebounds, suggesting a potential recovery for XRP. The platform added that this deeply negative MVRV zone creates conditions where even small positive catalysts could trigger significant price increases.

As of the time of writing, the price of XRP is trading around $1.32, according to CoinMarketCap.

XRP Traders Face Significant Short-Term Losses

XRP traders are currently experiencing substantial short-term losses, with on-chain analytics firm Santiment reporting that the token’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has plummeted to its lowest level since December 2020. Santiment characterized this as an “extreme undervalued zone,” noting that months of selling pressure have left recent buyers significantly underwater.

The chart provided by Santiment, which tracks XRP Ledger’s price alongside its 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios on Sanbase, indicates that XRP’s 30-day MVRV is approximately minus 47%. The 365-day reading is also deeply negative, hovering around minus 36%. Santiment’s analysis identifies the current situation as an “opportunity” zone, contrasting it with previous periods of elevated MVRV, which were labeled as sell-risk territory.

Undervalued Zone Signals Potential Rebound

Santiment stated that the data suggests the average XRP trader active over the past month has suffered significant losses, a level that has historically coincided with periods of intense capitulation. “The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom,” Santiment wrote. “Historically, MVRV’s average trading returns will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for XRP. The chart shows that XRP’s 30-day MVRV has now fallen to its lowest level since December, 2020, suggesting that fear and frustration among traders have reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds.”

MVRV, a metric used by on-chain analysts, helps estimate whether holders are experiencing unrealized profits or losses. Deeply negative short-term MVRV readings, according to Santiment, suggest that recent market participants have largely been washed out, reducing marginal selling pressure from traders who purchased near local highs.

Market Dynamics and Broader Narratives

XRP’s recent decline followed a strong rally in late 2024 and early 2025, according to Santiment. The firm noted that many traders entered the market near local peaks before momentum waned, leaving short-term holders vulnerable as subsequent selloffs drove the asset lower. This has resulted in a market structure where recent buyers are not only underwater but significantly so.

Santiment also linked the current market setup to broader XRP narratives, which remain active despite the price retracement. The firm highlighted continued optimism among long-term investors regarding regulatory progress, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s adoption story, while acknowledging that the token has lost more than half its market value since the previous summer.

“Despite the major price retracement that has seen XRP lose over half its market value since last summer, patient investors still have optimism surrounding regulatory progress, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s long-term adoption narrative,” Santiment said. “XRP rallied aggressively in late 2024 and early 2025, which left many traders buying near local tops before momentum cooled off. But since then, repeated selloffs have pushed many short-term holders deeply underwater.”

The key question is whether the negative MVRV reading indicates market exhaustion or simply reflects the severity of the downtrend. Santiment did not present the metric as a standalone timing signal. However, the firm argued that historically depressed MVRV levels often appear when retail traders have largely capitulated, creating conditions where relatively modest positive news can have a significant impact.

“The deeply negative MVRV zone that we’re seeing for XRP now tends to appear when retail traders have largely given up, creating conditions where even small positive catalysts can trigger strong recoveries,” Santiment wrote. “While weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee a reversal, they often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside.”

At the time of this report, XRP was trading at $1.33.

Bitwise HYPE ETF Sees Strong Debut

Early volume data for Bitwise Asset Management’s physically-backed spot HYPE ETF suggest a robust launch. This raises the question of whether HYPE is emerging as a genuine cycle winner, or if the Bitwise ETF’s premium is already factored in.

Bitwise’s BHYP debuted on the New York Stock Exchange with a 0.34% sponsor fee, temporarily waived to 0% on the first $500 million in assets under management (AUM) for the initial month. The firm manages approximately $11 billion in client assets. Within 48 hours of its launch, the two U.S.-listed HYPE ETFs experienced a 50% single-day volume surge on May 20 and recorded $25.5 million in net inflows, with $8.8 million attributed to BHYP alone. This early performance positions it as one of the largest altcoin ETF launches based on initial metrics.

Bitwise’s HYPE Purchases

Bitwise ETF clients purchased a total of $35.9 million in HYPE last week, representing an 18-fold increase from the previous week when Bitwise ETF flows began. BHYP launched on the New York Stock Exchange on May 15, 2026, and is the first HYPE ETF to be natively staked.

Hyperliquid’s Derivatives Volume and Fee Revenue

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid’s derivatives volume reached $2.9 trillion in 2025, reflecting over 400% year-on-year growth. The protocol also captured 44% of weekly blockchain fee revenue last week, generating $11 million compared to Ethereum’s $3 million.

Hyperliquid accounts for 44.58% of all crypto fees this week, with 97% of those fees automatically allocated to buy and burn HYPE.

HYPE’s Price Performance

HYPE is experiencing a rally amidst the current market conditions, with major resistance levels being breached. Currently, HYPE is in a price discovery phase following a more than 50% increase in the past two weeks. It is currently outperforming the market significantly.

If BHYP and the 21Shares product maintain eight-figure monthly net inflows, HYPE could surpass $70 decisively, with a target of $80. Moderate flows after the fee-waiver window closes could stabilize HYPE around the $60 range.

For short-sellers, the best-case scenario involves ETF inflows reversing or stalling below $5 million weekly, which could push the price below $55 support and towards the $48 range, where structural buybacks provide a floor.

The Assistance Fund

The Assistance Fund mechanic is a key factor to consider. By March 2026, the Fund had accumulated 28.5 million HYPE through automated open-market purchases, spending over $1.3 billion cumulatively. This resulted in an annualized buyback rate of 7% of market cap, significantly higher than BNB’s equivalent rates.

Bitcoin Hyper

HYPE’s potential is real. The ETF wrapper expands access but also reduces the asymmetry available to early participants. Traders are increasingly seeking leverage earlier in the infrastructure stack.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), currently in an active presale at $0.0136, positions itself at a different point on the risk curve. It is the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine, offering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while settling on Bitcoin’s security layer.

The project has raised over $32.7 million to date, with a decentralized canonical bridge enabling native BTC transfers. Staking is live with a high 36% APY for early participants. The core thesis is that Bitcoin holds $1.8 trillion in idle capital, and programmability unlocks it.

Chainlink Whale Wallets Reach All-Time High

On-chain data indicates that the number of large Chainlink (LINK) wallets has reached a new all-time high, signaling increased interest from significant investors in the network.

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the number of Chainlink wallets holding at least 100,000 LINK has reached a record high. This metric, known as “Supply Distribution,” tracks the total number of addresses within a specific group based on their LINK holdings.

These investor groups are categorized by the number of tokens held. For this analysis, the focus is on wallets holding a minimum of 100,000 LINK, which, at current exchange rates, equates to approximately $957,000. This threshold typically includes large-scale investors, often referred to as “whales,” whose activities can significantly influence the network.

A chart shared by Santiment illustrates the change in Supply Distribution for these Chainlink investors over the past few months. The graph shows a rise in the number of wallets holding 100,000 LINK or more, indicating a growing presence of large investors on the network. Specifically, the Supply Distribution of LINK whales has increased by 8.2% over the last seven weeks.

This influx of large investors has occurred while the cryptocurrency has generally traded sideways. Currently, there are 805 wallets holding at least 100,000 LINK, a new all-time high. Santiment noted that “Key stakeholders are showing bullishness toward the #16 market cap in crypto.”

It remains to be seen whether this optimism among LINK whales will translate into price appreciation for the cryptocurrency.

In contrast to the accumulation trend observed in Chainlink, Bitcoin has seen distribution from its large holders. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted in a separate X post that the supply held by Bitcoin whales has recently declined. The chart indicates that Bitcoin whales sold 18,447 BTC between the 18th and 21st of this month, equivalent to approximately $1.41 billion.

LINK Price

At the time of writing, Chainlink is trading around $9.57, unchanged from one week ago.

Hayes on Privacy-Focused Crypto

Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, has identified NEAR Protocol and Zcash as the core of his privacy-focused cryptocurrency investments, arguing that the market is beginning to reprice assets tied to private value transfer, sovereignty in the age of AI, and sound protocol economics. In an interview with The Rollup, Hayes stated that NEAR could offer “20x potential,” while Zcash might have “5x potential” over the next year. He framed these assets as part of a broader reaction to the influence of “big tech, big government,” and AI-driven surveillance.

Macroeconomic Shift Fuels Investment

Hayes’ investment thesis is rooted in a macroeconomic shift. Earlier this year, he adopted a cautious stance, believing that Bitcoin had already priced in an “AI deflationary credit event.” He anticipated that monetary authorities would be hesitant to aggressively print money until a crisis forced their hand. However, he believes this changed after the Iran conflict, which crystallized a liquidity-positive environment for markets. “Governments print money to win war. AI is part of war. The AI capex will be underwritten, both in the United States and China, by the governments,” Hayes said. He added that governments in the US, China, and Europe would likely fund a wartime economy and AI infrastructure through monetary expansion, with some of that liquidity flowing into Bitcoin and select crypto assets.

The Case for NEAR and Zcash

Hayes’ strongest comments were reserved for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. He reaffirmed Zcash as his “second biggest bag” and stated that the asset had become investable again after earlier concerns about its trusted setup, issuance profile, and developer subsidy faded. He views the current Zcash trade as cleaner, more liquid, and more relevant to the current political and technological climate. “There’s nothing wrong with wanting to have private money over the internet,” Hayes said. “And that’s what Zcash represents, that’s what Monero represents. And as we are learning the ability for big tech, big government and AI to essentially know everything about us and to trace everything that’s going on in our lives, to have pure, just cryptographically proven privacy with money is going to be super needed.”

Hayes’ renewed interest in Zcash was spurred by a conversation with Naval Ravikant during Tokyo 2049. According to Hayes, Ravikant argued that Monero’s ring signatures were weaker than commonly assumed, referencing a Japanese law enforcement case involving deanonymization. Hayes subsequently purchased $1 million of Zcash and continued accumulating the asset as he researched the thesis further.

NEAR’s Role in Private Value Transfer

Hayes’ price targets are linked to NEAR’s role in facilitating private value transfer across assets and chains. He argues that while shielded Zcash is important, the greater opportunity lies in the ability of users to move from shielded ZEC into other assets, including stablecoins, through NEAR Intents. “Within the ZODL app, I can now send any crypto asset I want to anyone across the Internet in an anonymous way. From Shielded Zcash, using Near Intents. Now I’m into, you know, USDT on Tron and I’ve sent it to whoever I’m going to send it to in an anonymous fashion. That’s huge,” Hayes said.

He believes Zcash remains the primary expression of the privacy trade, but NEAR may offer a more asymmetric setup due to its connection to the execution layer behind confidential transfers. “I think Near has a 20x potential where, you know, Zcash might have a 5x potential over the next year or something like that,” he said.

NEAR’s Economic Fundamentals

NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin reinforced the economic side of the argument, stating that NEAR Intents is approaching $20 billion in lifetime volume, with $18.9 billion cited during the interview, and has generated $33 million in fees. He explained that NEAR takes a fee from every transaction and uses it to buy back NEAR, while the ecosystem has already halved inflation and may push for further reductions as revenue grows.

Hayes also highlighted NEAR’s token structure, noting that it benefits from being “fully diluted,” avoiding the large overhang of venture allocations that still affect many Layer-1 assets. He believes this clean supply profile is advantageous for a token expected to perform well in an upmarket.

Risks and Outlook

Hayes acknowledges that the primary risk to his thesis is macroeconomic. He intends to hold his positions until the broader liquidity backdrop changes, but he cautioned that reduced government support for AI capital expenditure or a worsening war scenario could alter the setup. For now, he sees privacy, AI-linked sovereignty, and exchange revenue as the trades with the clearest market validation.

At the time of this report, Zcash was trading at $624.