Tag: Market Trends

Bitcoin Reaches $86,373 on Binance, Trader Killa Identifies Key Support Level

Bitcoin surged to $86,373 on Binance on October 2nd, marking a 3.55% increase over the preceding 24 hours. Trader Killa, a prominent figure in the crypto space, posted early on the same day, asserting that Bitcoin had established a solid low at $82,500. He referenced the 2023 bull market, noting that price dips below such established lows had historically been shallow, with the deepest only breaching 8%. Killa suggested that leveraging positions around this previous low with 7x to 10x leverage could be relatively safe, provided robust risk management practices are in place.

Killa’s Analysis of Bitcoin’s Established Low

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) at 4:20 AM Taiwan time on October 2nd, Killa declared Bitcoin’s “established low” to be $82,500. He backed this claim by citing historical data from the 2023 bull run, where price “sweeps” below such support levels rarely exceeded an 8% drop, with some instances seeing declines of only 4% to 5%. Based on this historical performance, Killa anticipates any current dip to be minimal. As of 4:25 PM on October 2nd, Bitcoin was trading at $86,373 on Binance BTCUSDT, reflecting a 3.55% gain in the last 24 hours.

Killa’s tweet stated: “There is no worse feeling than watching $BTC pump without you. Unfortunately, we are at the peak stage of disbelief despite a significant shift in trend. Any downside should be bought aggressively and quickly. Keep leverage low. If you want to make big money, you need to trade…”

An “established low” refers to a price point that has been confirmed by the market and has previously acted as support. A “sweep” occurs when the price briefly dips below this level before recovering. At the time of reporting, the current price of $86,373 is approximately 4.7% above the $82,500 level, meaning it has not yet revisited this key support.

Leverage and Risk Management

Killa emphasized that Bitcoin’s trend has clearly shifted, yet the market remains in a state of peak skepticism. He advised aggressive and swift buying on any downturns, cautioning traders to “Keep leverage low.” He further posited that using 7x to 10x leverage to go long near the previous low is a relatively safe strategy for a rally towards historical highs, contingent on proper risk management. He concluded his point by stating, “It is mathematics.”

A 10x leverage position would be liquidated if the price moves 10% against the trader. While the deepest 8% drop in the 2023 sample did not reach this threshold, an 8% decline would still result in a 56% loss of margin for a 7x leveraged position and an 80% loss for a 10x leveraged position, leaving only 20% of the initial margin.

This calculation has two limitations. Firstly, it does not account for trading fees or margin maintenance requirements, which would lead to earlier liquidations in reality. Secondly, the extent of any price sweep must not exceed the 2023 sample range; otherwise, the projection would not apply. In terms of price, a 4% to 8% drop from $82,500 would translate to a range between $79,200 and $75,900.

Market Indicators and Historical Context

Binance daily charts indicate that between September 24th and October 1st, six out of eight daily candles had their lowest points within the range of $82,563 to $83,186. This price range is close to Killa’s stated $82,500 low, though he did not specify the exact date from which he derived his figure.

Bitcoin’s daily high on September 21st reached $87,396, its highest point in nearly 75 days. Based on the closing price of $77,340 on September 2nd, Bitcoin has seen an 11.68% increase over the past 30 days.

On October 2nd, the open interest for Binance BTCUSDT perpetual contracts, representing the total volume of unsettled contracts, stood at 99,873 BTC. This is an approximately 8.0% increase from the 92,474 BTC recorded on September 30th, indicating a rise in open contract positions in the market over two days. The funding rate for perpetual contracts, a fee paid periodically between long and short traders, was last recorded at 0.01%, which is considered a baseline level, suggesting that long traders are not paying an unusually high premium.

The Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index registered 72 on October 2nd, falling within the “Greed” zone. The index stood at 74 and 71 respectively on the two preceding days. This contrasts with Killa’s assessment of the market being in a state of skepticism, as the sentiment index has remained above 70 for three consecutive days.

Broader Economic Factors

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 1 yard (25 basis points) on September 16th, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first rate hike of 2023, with all 12 voting members in favor. The median dot plot indicated that officials anticipate one more rate hike within the year, with the next meeting scheduled for October 27th-28th.

According to FRED data, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose from 4.96% on September 22nd to 5.29% by September 30th. A yield exceeding 5% implies that an investor buying a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and holding it to maturity would receive an annual return of over 5%. Killa’s tweet did not directly address interest rates or Treasury yields.

Killa’s Trading History and Future Outlook

Killa has approximately 234,000 followers on X. Reports from BlockBeats indicate that on April 14th, he initiated a short position on Bitcoin at $74,688 with a stop-loss set at $80,000, which would be triggered if the weekly closing price exceeded this level. On June 5th, he transitioned to a long position with a stop-loss of $31,950 and a target of $160,000.

The entry price for his June 5th long position was not disclosed. On that day, Bitcoin traded within a daily range of $59,131 to $63,978. These are his publicly disclosed positions, and his actual profit and loss records are not available.

In a separate tweet on September 29th, Killa responded to discussions about the depth of price corrections in 2023. Applying logic of diminishing returns and shallower pullbacks, he estimated that the maximum pullback for the current bull market, before reaching previous highs of $126,000, could range between 10% and 15%.

He calculated a 10% pullback to approximately $78,000 and a 15% pullback to around $74,000. He also stated that deep price sweeps were not part of his strategy, and he remained focused on the $90,000 range.

A 15% pullback, translating to $74,000, is approximately 10.3% below the $82,500 level, exceeding the deepest 8% drop observed in 2023. The 15% figure represents his projection for the maximum pullback in this bull cycle, while the 8% is the sample he cited from 2023. The 8% and 10.3% figures fall on either side of the 10% liquidation threshold for 10x leverage. Whether a 10x long position near the previous low would be liquidated depends on which of these potential drop magnitudes materializes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where does Killa believe Bitcoin’s established low is?
Killa stated in his October 2nd post that the established low is $82,500, referring to a price point confirmed by the market and previously acting as support. Binance daily charts from September 24th to October 1st show six days where the lowest price fell between $82,563 and $83,186.

What was the deepest price drop below an established low during the 2023 bull market for Bitcoin?
According to Killa’s reference to the 2023 bull market, price sweeps below established lows only breached a maximum of 8%, with some recovering after only 4% to 5% declines. Calculated from $82,500, a 4% to 8% drop would range from approximately $79,200 to $75,900.

Bitcoin Reclaims $86,000 as October Rally Gains Momentum

The cryptocurrency market has begun October with significant upward momentum, as Bitcoin surged over 2% to trade around $86,150. This rally, dubbed “Uptober,” is being fueled by a bullish price target revision from Citi and a resurgence in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

Market Strength and Price Targets

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed more than 2.2% to approximately $86,150, leading the broader crypto market, which saw a 1.9% gain. The digital asset briefly touched $86,150, pushing back above the critical $85,000 level. This upward movement occurs as Bitcoin enters October, a month historically favorable for the cryptocurrency. In the past 13 Octobers, Bitcoin has closed higher in 10 instances, with an average gain of 18.71%, contributing to the optimistic sentiment surrounding the start of “Uptober.”

The recent rally has also led to significant liquidations across the market, with approximately 77,543 traders experiencing $324.68 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours.

Citi’s Bullish Forecast and ETF Inflows

A primary driver for Bitcoin’s latest surge is a new, optimistic price forecast from Citi. The financial institution has raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000. Citi cited increased crypto activity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and renewed demand for Bitcoin ETFs as key factors supporting this revision. This forecast has bolstered investor confidence as Bitcoin starts the month on a strong footing.

Adding to the positive sentiment, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.7 million on October 1. This marks a reversal from the previous day’s outflow of $148.7 million and follows a substantial cumulative inflow streak of $3.1 billion prior to a September 30 outflow.

Federal Reserve Signals and Market Impact

Further support for the October rally comes from signals from the Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is “no need for urgency” to raise interest rates again. Following his remarks, data from CME FedWatch showed the probability of an October rate hike falling to approximately 44%. Reduced expectations for an immediate interest rate increase can alleviate pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s recent advance has brought its price back towards the upper boundary of its established trading range since its move from $79,500. With BTC trading above $85,957, traders are closely watching to see if it can surpass the recent swing high of $86,837.30. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially targeting $87,000, $95,000, and $100,000. However, clearing this immediate resistance is crucial for confirming stronger upward momentum. On the downside, a retreat below $85,000 could see Bitcoin retest the $83,000 area.

Ethereum Poised for Major Breakout Amidst Whale Accumulation and Institutional Demand

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has demonstrated remarkable resilience, posting an almost 9% gain in September, a period historically known for its weakness in the digital asset’s performance. This upward momentum has led many analysts and market observers to believe that Ethereum is on the cusp of a significant breakout, further bolstered by recent whale activity and robust institutional demand.

As of this report, Ether (ETH) is trading just above $2,700, with a market capitalization nearing $330 billion. Analyst Gerla, on the X platform, suggested that Ethereum’s price chart is becoming increasingly unfavorable for bearish investors, identifying a critical zone between $2,650 and $2,900. “Clear that, and I’m expecting ETH to accelerate hard. The bigger target stays $4,800-$5,200. This doesn’t look like a trend I want to fade,” Gerla stated.

Altcoin Sherpa echoed this sentiment, noting that the asset has been consolidating in recent days. This period of price action is interpreted as a precursor to a substantial breakout. Ted also commented on the subdued volatility, urging buyers to step in and push ETH above $2,800 to initiate another upward leg. Failure to do so, he warned, could increase the likelihood of a sharp correction.

Whale Activity and Institutional Inflows Signal Bullish Sentiment

Adding to the optimistic outlook, Ali Martinez revealed that Ethereum whales have accumulated approximately 60,000 ETH, valued at around $162 million, within the past week. This follows a previous seven-day period where large investors acquired over 320,000 ETH. A prevailing theory suggests that whales may possess insider knowledge, and their substantial buying activity can ignite broader market enthusiasm, encouraging retail investors to inject capital into the ecosystem. Furthermore, these purchases reduce the available supply on the market, potentially driving further price appreciation.

The growing institutional interest in Ethereum also presents a positive factor. Cumulative net inflows into spot ETH Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have surged to nearly $14 billion, with approximately $700 million entering these funds just last week.

High-Leverage Trades and Expert Predictions Fuel Rally Hopes

Adding intrigue to the market dynamics, a notable trader has made a significant leveraged bet on Ethereum’s upward movement. As previously reported, this whale opened a $99 long position in ETH with 25x leverage. Remarkably, this trader boasts a perfect 100% win rate across 3,156 trades to date, suggesting a keen understanding of market trends.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the now-defunct crypto exchange BitMEX, has also shared his bullish forecast. He predicts that ETH could reach a new all-time high of $10,000 by the end of the year, asserting that Ethereum remains the most secure layer-1 network despite increasing competition. MikybullCrypto expressed even greater optimism, anticipating a “mega breakout” that could propel ETH towards $7,000, with potential for further ascent to $14,000 as the bull run intensifies.

Exchange Outflows of XRP Surge, Evoking Memories of August Rally

Data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant surge in daily XRP outflows from exchanges, with transactions of 1 million tokens or more exceeding 320 million. This development is particularly noteworthy, according to analyst Xaif Crypto, as a similar spike in August was followed by a more than 42% increase in XRP’s price.

Xaif Crypto identified Binance as the primary driver of this recent outflow, with Coinbase, Upbit, Bybit, and Bitget also showing substantial movements. Bitget recently experienced a $387 million breach.

“The last time we saw a spike like this, in August, XRP rocketed from $1.05 to $1.50,” the trader commented.

Analyst Amr Taha provided a closer look at Binance’s activity. The exchange’s XRP reserves increased from approximately 2.60 billion to 2.70 billion tokens between September 13 and 27. However, by September 30, these reserves had fallen to 2.647 billion, indicating an outflow of roughly 57 million XRP, or 2.1%, within three days. This outflow represented more than half of the earlier accumulation. Taha suggested that a sustained decline in exchange reserves could lead to fewer tokens available for spot trading, potentially easing selling pressure.

Leverage Declines Amidst Outflows

Another CryptoQuant contributor, CryptoOnChain, focused on leverage, noting that it has “reduced faster than price has fallen.” They reported that Binance’s XRP open interest, which represents the value of open futures positions, dropped to $521.5 million on September 29. This was a 15.3% decrease from a six-month high of $616.1 million recorded a week prior.

During the same period, from September 24 to 29, long liquidations—forced closures of positions betting on higher prices—averaged $3.72 million per day, approximately 2.6 times the six-month daily average. Funding rates also halved, falling from 0.010 to 0.005, although leverage remains above its six-month mean of 0.169. CryptoOnChain posited that traders may have reduced their leveraged long positions before the end of the quarter rather than selling spot XRP.

“This creates conditions that historically preceded range-bound trading, as positioning is resetting while exchange supply edges higher,” the analyst explained.

Market Performance and Outlook

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading near $1.50, having gained approximately 1% over the preceding 24 hours and showing minimal movement on a weekly basis. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen a 16% rally in the last 14 days. However, its annual performance remains subdued, with a decline of over 47% in the past 12 months.

XRP concluded September with its third consecutive month of gains, adding around 8% to its value. During this period, spot XRP exchange-traded funds saw net inflows of over $121 million, bringing cumulative net inflows to nearly $1.8 billion. These funds have not experienced a down week since early July.

Looking ahead to October, the month has historically presented challenges for XRP. Only five of the last 13 Octobers have finished in positive territory for the token. The most recent positive October was in 2023, with a 16.5% gain, which was followed by a 16.7% loss in 2024 and a nearly 12% drop last year, following a significant sell-off on October 10.

Evernorth Poised for Nasdaq Debut as SPAC Merger Nears Completion

Evernorth is on track to become a publicly traded XRP treasury company, with its shares expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN following the closure of its merger with blank-check firm Armada Acquisition Corp. II. The company anticipates holding an XRP treasury valued at approximately $710 million at current market prices.

Key Milestones Reached

Shareholders of Armada Acquisition Corp. II have approved the proposed business combination, clearing a significant hurdle for Evernorth. The deal is slated to close on October 7, with trading of the combined entity’s shares on Nasdaq anticipated to commence the following day, contingent upon the satisfaction of remaining closing conditions. This approval follows Evernorth’s filing of its Form S-4 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in March, which was declared effective in August.

Substantial XRP Holdings Expected

Upon closing, Evernorth projects it will possess around 473 million XRP. The company asserts this will establish it as the largest publicly traded, pure-play XRP treasury firm.

Funding and Investor Base

The transaction is expected to generate approximately $300 million in gross cash proceeds. This includes $225 million from private placements, $30 million from convertible note financing, and roughly $48 million from Armada II’s trust. Investors have also directly contributed XRP to the transaction.

At the time of publication, XRP was trading around $1.50, according to CoinGecko data, placing Evernorth’s anticipated 473 million-token treasury at an estimated $710 million.

Evernorth’s investor roster includes prominent names such as Ripple, Kraken, Pantera Capital, SBI Group, Arrington Capital, and GSR. The company intends to enhance its XRP holdings per share through yield strategies, active participation in the XRP ecosystem, and capital markets activities.

Broader Market Context

Evernorth’s planned Nasdaq listing occurs amidst a mixed landscape for other cryptocurrency companies seeking to access U.S. public markets via SPAC mergers this year.

Tokenization firm Securitize successfully began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in July after its merger with Cantor Equity Partners II. Similarly, CoinShares made its Nasdaq debut in April following a $1.2 billion merger with Vine Hill Capital Investment Corp.

However, crypto treasury companies have also encountered challenges. Ether Machine abandoned its planned merger with Dynamix in April, citing unfavorable market conditions and halting plans for a $1.5 billion yield-bearing Ether fund. In July, Adam Back’s Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company and Cantor Equity Partners I revised the terms of their proposed merger and indefinitely postponed a shareholder vote, while renegotiating a deal to “better reflect market conditions.”

Bitcoin’s formidable $85,000 resistance level may have just weakened. A significant sell wall, a large concentration of sell orders at a specific price, has reportedly been dismantled by buyers, according to a post on X. This development could pave the way for further price appreciation by reducing the overhead supply of sell orders.

Understanding Sell Walls

A sell wall is a technical indicator in cryptocurrency markets representing a substantial cluster of limit sell orders placed at a particular price point. For the price to surpass this level, buyers must absorb all these outstanding sell orders. The larger the sell wall, the more buying pressure is required to break through it.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode identified a sell wall on the Binance exchange situated between $85,000 and $85,500. This wall had reportedly tripled in size between September 24 and September 30, 2026.

Recent Price Action and Influencing Factors

On September 21, Bitcoin briefly breached the $85,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of approximately $85,248. A portion of this surge was attributed to the liquidation of roughly $648 million in short positions. Short liquidations occur when traders who bet on a price decline are forced to buy back the asset to close their positions, thereby adding to buying pressure during an upward move.

However, after the short squeeze subsided, Bitcoin struggled to maintain its position above $85,000 and subsequently retreated.

Two primary forces contributed to this price pullback. Firstly, demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) showed signs of cooling. Net inflows into these ETFs experienced a sharp decline after September 22, reaching a low of just $24 million on September 28.

Secondly, long-term Bitcoin holders began to take profits. Their share of realized profits increased significantly, rising from 34% to 55% in the week ending September 29.

Throughout this period, Bitcoin managed to hold above several key support levels. These include the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which hovers around $73,300, and the True Market Mean, located near $77,200.

Key Indicators to Monitor

Several factors will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

The first is the sustainability of the sell wall’s removal. Sell walls are composed of limit orders, which can be canceled or repositioned at any time. Therefore, monitoring the order book depth on Binance within the $85,000 to $85,500 range will be important.

The second signal to watch is ETF flows. The significant drop in inflows to $24 million on September 28 highlighted how rapidly institutional demand can fluctuate.

The third factor is the behavior of long-term holders. With their realized profit share at 55%, these long-term investors have been a significant source of supply at current price levels.

The price action on September 21 also offers a cautionary tale. The brief surge above $85,000, partly fueled by liquidations, ultimately proved unsustainable.

On the downside, the True Market Mean near $77,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis around $73,300 represent critical levels. A sustained break below these points could signal a weakening market structure.