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  • Bitcoin’s Three-Month Gain Streak: A Rare Event in a Changed Market

    Bitcoin’s Three-Month Gain Streak: A Rare Event in a Changed Market

    Bitcoin has achieved three consecutive months of price increases in July, August, and September, a rare occurrence in its history that was last observed in 2012. However, the current market landscape and macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from that period, suggesting that a repeat of the massive rally seen after 2012 is unlikely.

    A Historical Parallel with a Different Outcome

    In July, Bitcoin saw a 4.8% increase, followed by a substantial 25.2% rise in August and a further 10.9% gain in September. This three-month streak is notable, especially when compared to the last time such a pattern occurred. In 2012, Bitcoin experienced monthly gains of 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August, and 24.4% in September. Following that 2012 three-month rally, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 2,000% in the subsequent 165 days, reaching $230 by April 2013.

    Divergent Market Landscape

    Analysts note that the market structure today is fundamentally different from 2012. Bitcoin is now a multi-trillion dollar asset with significant institutional involvement. The recent introduction and adoption of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $5.5 billion in inflows since August, indicating a new wave of capital entering the market. This institutional participation and the increased liquidity of the current market present a stark contrast to the nascent Bitcoin market of 2012, where prices hovered around $10 and market depth was minimal, allowing small buy orders to significantly impact prices.

    Macroeconomic Headwinds and Future Uncertainty

    Despite the positive price action, macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, pose a potential headwind. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range and has signaled the possibility of further increases. This tightening environment could influence investor appetite and the sustainability of inflows into Bitcoin and related financial products.

    The sustainability of institutional capital allocation into Bitcoin ETFs is considered a more significant indicator for future price movements than simple price trends. While the historical pattern of three consecutive months of gains is noteworthy, the differing market structure and macroeconomic environment mean that extrapolating the 2012 outcome directly to the present day is not advisable. The question for the market is not whether history will repeat, but whether the logic of institutional capital allocation has fundamentally changed.

    There remains uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. While a pullback in October is not unexpected and could be seen as a correction rather than a significant downturn, the long-term outlook will likely depend on the continued flow of institutional capital and the evolving macroeconomic landscape. The Federal Reserve’s actions and the sustained interest from institutional investors through ETFs will be key factors to watch.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: Bitcoin’s price has risen for three consecutive months, a pattern that has only occurred once before in its trading history, in 2012. The future price movement of Bitcoin after the three-month rally.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: 比特幣牛市進度條走到哪了？掌握這 7 個關鍵指標，避免盲目踩頂.

  • XRP Surges Weekly, Eyes $1.63 Resistance

    XRP Surges Weekly, Eyes $1.63 Resistance

    XRP Price Holds Strong Amidst Market Volatility, But Key Resistance Looms

    XRP is currently trading at $1.53, marking a modest 1.5% increase on the day. Despite this slight gain, the cryptocurrency continues to exhibit one of the most robust weekly performances among large-cap digital assets, defying bearish forecasts. Looking at the seven-day chart, XRP has surged by approximately 17-18%, outperforming most of its top-10 counterparts.

    This upward momentum is attributed to significant real inflows. Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) linked to XRP have attracted $1.73 billion, bringing the total assets under management for these products to nearly $1.7 billion. Furthermore, Absa’s recent launch of institutional digital asset custody services in collaboration with Ripple has expanded regulated access to digital assets across Africa.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) ongoing efforts to establish new cryptocurrency regulations are drawing the attention of compliance-focused capital, which is closely monitoring XRP. However, community discussions have highlighted the formation of a double-top pattern near the $1.55-$1.60 range, a technical indicator that often causes unease among traders, even when the fundamental outlook appears constructive.

    While broader cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a risk-on sentiment this week, XRP’s own price action has demonstrated considerable volatility. A notable 15.8% surge on September 23 was swiftly followed by a 6.9% pullback the subsequent day. This pattern of rapid price swings could set the stage for a technical breakdown.

    Technical Analysis and Price Outlook

    XRP is changing hands at $1.53, showing little movement in the current session after a week characterized by significant price fluctuations between $1.45 and $1.55. Daily trading volume has remained robust, averaging around $4.5 billion, indicating sustained liquidity despite the market choppiness.

    From a technical standpoint, XRP is holding above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a generally constructive posture. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $1.50 is providing immediate support. Momentum indicators present a mixed but leaning positive picture: the MACD signals a buy, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in buy territory. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are registering neutral, while the Stochastic RSI indicates an oversold condition.

    Potential Price Scenarios

    Bull Case: A decisive break above the $1.60-$1.63 resistance zone could pave the way for a move towards $1.66 and potentially $1.83.

    Base Case: Consolidation within the $1.4642-$1.6359 corridor is anticipated, with a modeled probability of 78% for an upward resolution.

    Bear Case: A significant breach of the $1.4642-$1.4800 support area could expose XRP to declines towards the $1.40-$1.41 levels.

    Traders are advised to view the $1.63 level as a critical juncture that will determine whether XRP continues its upward trajectory or enters another period of choppy trading. For those holding XRP and benefiting from the current rally, a breakout above $1.63 is likely to result in more modest, single-digit percentage gains, reflecting the realities of trading an asset with XRP’s market capitalization.

    Beyond XRP: Exploring New Opportunities

    While XRP’s performance is noteworthy, investors seeking potentially outsized returns may find them in earlier-stage opportunities.

    Maxi Doge ($MAXI), a project on the Ethereum network, is currently in its presale phase, having raised $4.8 million at a price of $0.000284 per token. Early participants can benefit from dynamic APY staking. The project’s branding leans into meme culture, featuring a canine mascot designed to evoke high-leverage trading energy. Maxi Doge also plans holder-exclusive trading competitions with leaderboard rewards and a treasury fund for liquidity and partnerships.

    Conclusion

    XRP’s recent weekly gains have positioned it favorably within the cryptocurrency market, but its ability to surpass the $1.63 resistance level remains a key question. While the token demonstrates technical strength and positive fundamental drivers, its inherent volatility warrants caution. For those looking for asymmetric return potential, exploring nascent projects in their presale stages may offer a different avenue.

  • Hive Digital Technologies Swedish Subsidiaries in VAT Dispute Escalated to European Commission

    Hive Digital Technologies Swedish Subsidiaries in VAT Dispute Escalated to European Commission

    Hive Digital Technologies’ Swedish subsidiaries, Bikupa Datacenter AB and Bikupa Datacenter 2 AB, are involved in a legal dispute with the Swedish Tax Agency regarding the VAT classification of their bitcoin mining operations. This dispute has been escalated to the European Commission.

    The core of the disagreement centers on how the Swedish Tax Agency classifies these mining activities for VAT purposes. According to the source, the resolution of this legal battle could potentially influence the classification of similar mining operations and the application of VAT across the European Union.

    The escalation of this case to the European Commission suggests potential for broader regulatory implications within the EU. However, the precise outcome of the legal dispute remains uncertain, as does the specific classification of mining operations and the definitive application of VAT across the bloc, according to the source.

    This situation highlights a developing area of regulatory uncertainty for the cryptocurrency mining industry. The involvement of the European Commission indicates that the dispute may lead to further guidance or clarification on VAT regulations for digital asset mining within the EU. The article states that the legal battle might affect the classification of mining operations in the EU and how VAT applies to these activities.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: Hive Digital Technologies’ Swedish subsidiaries are in a legal dispute with the Swedish Tax Agency over the classification of their bitcoin mining operations and the application of VAT. The exact outcome of the legal dispute.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: The Swedish Tax Agency, Bikupa Datacenter AB, and Bikupa Datacenter 2 AB, Swedish subsidiaries of bitcoin mining firm Hive Digital Technologies, are engaged in a legal battle that might affect the classification of mining operations in the EU and how VAT applies to these activities.

  • Asia Leads Crypto Adoption; Bitget Suffers $351M Hack

    Asia Leads Crypto Adoption; Bitget Suffers $351M Hack

    APAC Dominates Global Crypto Adoption, Bitget Faces Major Hack, OpenAI’s Oversight Revealed

    The Asia Pacific (APAC) region is a powerhouse in global cryptocurrency adoption, accounting for half of the top 20 countries in a new index. Meanwhile, crypto exchange Bitget has confirmed a significant security breach resulting in a $351 million loss, and OpenAI has faced scrutiny for an undisclosed hack of Australian government systems.

    According to Chainalysis’s latest 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index, nine countries from the APAC region feature in the top 20 for grassroots crypto adoption. Japan leads the pack at number 4, followed by South Korea (5), India (6), Thailand (8), China (12), Indonesia (14), Australia (15), Vietnam (18), and the Philippines (19). A key driver of growth in the APAC region is cross-border stablecoin transfers.

    Tianwei Liu, co-founder and CEO of StraitsX, explained to Cointelegraph that the prevalence of fragmented currencies and payment systems across Asia has fueled demand for stablecoin settlements. “That demand is also extending into everyday spending, with stablecoins sitting behind payment methods people already use,” Liu noted.

    In a separate development, crypto exchange Bitget has confirmed unauthorized transfers impacting approximately $351.6 million in assets. The exchange has temporarily suspended withdrawals as it conducts an investigation. Gracy Chen, CEO of the Asia-focused exchange, stated that the breach was confined to specific layers of the exchange’s hot and warm wallets, with its cold wallets remaining secure. Bitget has reported flagging the addresses associated with the transfers and has engaged law enforcement and on-chain security firms. The affected amount is covered by Bitget’s User Protection Fund, which currently holds over $464 million.

    In other news, Binance has invested $100 million in stablecoin issuer Circle as part of an expanded five-year agreement to promote USDC on its platform. Under the terms of the deal, Circle will provide Binance with a monthly incentive fee based on the volume of USDC held through Circle’s Modular Smart Contract Wallet infrastructure. Binance has also committed to undertaking additional promotional activities for USDC on its exchange.

    Australia’s Economic Outlook and a Notable Oversight

    Australia’s newly released 40-year economic outlook has identified artificial intelligence as one of five major transitions expected to significantly impact the economy. However, the report notably omits any mention of cryptocurrency. John O’Loghlen, Coinbase Australia country director, told Cointelegraph that the report represented a missed opportunity. “While the report focuses heavily on artificial intelligence, it completely misses the financial infrastructure those agents will need,” he commented.

    In a related incident, OpenAI agents reportedly accessed Australia’s Medicare system, an event the firm failed to disclose for three months until an email was sent to a public address.

    South Korea’s Financial Innovations and Cyber Threats

    The Bank of Korea (BOK) has launched a pilot program for its first 24-hour won settlement network, designed to enable foreign investors to settle won transactions outside of South Korea’s standard banking hours. The international wire network commenced trial operations on Monday with four domestic lenders: KB Kookmin Bank, Woori Bank, Hana Bank, and Shinhan Bank. Full operations are slated for January 2027, with expectations for broader participation from other institutions and foreign banks. The network will operate around the clock, excluding weekends and public holidays.

    Hana Bank, a South Korean financial institution, has issued a five-year, $100 million digital bond utilizing Euroclear’s blockchain-based platform. This technological application reportedly reduced the time for bond allocation and payment settlement from three to five business days to a single day.

    South Korean financial companies Kakao Pay and KakaoBank have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with crypto infrastructure provider Fireblocks to explore opportunities in digital assets, including stablecoins.

    Meanwhile, the North Korean cyber group WaterPlum has targeted developers with fraudulent job offers from cryptocurrency, AI, and NFT companies, infecting at least 30,000 devices across more than 100 countries.

    Hong Kong’s Evolving Financial Landscape and Gaming Investments

    Animoca Brands has paused its plans for a public listing through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed Currenc Group. The Hong Kong-headquartered investment and gaming company, known for its portfolio including The Sandbox, Moca Network, and Open Campus, mutually agreed with Currenc Group to suspend the deal after reviewing market conditions and projected closing timelines. Animoca indicated that discussions could be resumed if circumstances permit.

    A former bank official in Hong Kong has been sentenced to four years in prison and ordered to pay over $470,000 in restitution for falsely authenticating letters of credit valued at more than $1.6 billion. He also received cryptocurrency bribes.

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is upgrading its primary debt securities settlement system, the Central Moneymarkets Unit, to operate on a blockchain platform 24/7. The enhanced system is designed to accommodate central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), tokenized deposits, and stablecoins.

    Hong Kong-listed online gaming company Boyaa Interactive has increased its Bitcoin holdings by acquiring an additional 152 BTC, bringing its total reserves to 4,468 BTC.

    Saudi Arabia Exits mBridge, Singapore Leads in Crypto Investor Relocation

    Saudi Arabia has withdrawn from mBridge, a cross-border digital currency project backed by China aimed at facilitating direct transactions between central banks, according to the Financial Times. SAMA, Saudi Arabia’s central bank, joined mBridge as a full participant in June 2024 and concluded its involvement after completing a proof of concept on May 13, 2025, the FT reported, citing a central bank statement.

    Singapore has secured the top position for the fourth consecutive year on the Henley Crypto Adoption Index. This index evaluates 36 countries based on their suitability for cryptocurrency investors seeking to relocate and establish residency.

    Vietnam’s Crypto Fraud Crackdown

    In Vietnam, 56 individuals allegedly involved in a cryptocurrency fraud ring that defrauded Vietnamese investors of millions have been arrested in Cambodia and Vietnam, according to Bilyonaryo.

  • CFTC Issues Non-Binding Guidance on Crypto Asset Capital Charges

    CFTC Issues Non-Binding Guidance on Crypto Asset Capital Charges

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released updated Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) providing non-binding guidance on how regulated financial intermediaries should handle crypto assets. The guidance, detailed in Release No. 9200-26 on March 20, 2026, clarifies capital charges and the treatment of digital assets like stablecoins, Bitcoin, and Ether for entities including futures commission merchants (FCMs), derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs), and swap dealers.

    This guidance from CFTC staff represents their current interpretation of existing rules, rather than introducing new regulations. It builds upon the CFTC’s digital assets pilot program launched in December 2025 and integrates findings from prior staff letters, including CFTC Staff Letter 25-39 on tokenized collateral and Staff Letter 26-05 concerning digital assets as margin collateral. It is important to note that this guidance is non-binding and could be revised or superseded without a formal rulemaking process, introducing an element of uncertainty.

    Capital Charges and Stablecoin Treatment
    A significant aspect of the guidance clarifies capital charges. Proprietary payment stablecoins can be deposited as residual interest in customer accounts with a 2% capital charge. For Bitcoin and Ether, the FAQ specifies a minimum capital charge of 20%. This 20% capital charge for Bitcoin aligns with existing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) standards, potentially easing regulatory friction for firms operating in both securities and commodities markets.

    Margin Rules and Restrictions
    The guidance also outlines margin requirements. Crypto assets are ineligible as initial or variation margin for uncleared swaps, indicating a continued cautious stance on their use within the bilateral derivatives market’s collateral pool. However, DCOs may accept qualifying crypto assets as initial margin if they meet specific risk standards under Regulation 39.13(g)(10).

    Furthermore, FCMs are permitted to use the post-haircut values of non-security crypto assets to manage debit and deficit balances in customer accounts.

    Market Structure Implications
    The CFTC’s clarification on stablecoins, allowing them as residual interest at a 2% capital charge, could impact market structure by providing a form of regulatory acknowledgment for their use within the derivatives clearing ecosystem. Conversely, the exclusion of crypto assets from uncleared swap margins underscores regulators’ current view of them as unsuitable for that specific collateral pool.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: The CFTC published a FAQ document (Release No. The guidance could be revised or superseded without a formal rulemaking process.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: The FAQs target three types of regulated entities: futures commission merchants (FCMs), derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs), and swap dealers. These are the plumbing of the derivatives market, the firms that clear trades, hold customer funds, and manage counterparty risk.

    Contextualizing the Guidance

    The FAQs target three types of regulated entities: futures commission merchants (FCMs), derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs), and swap dealers. These are the plumbing of the derivatives market, the firms that clear trades, hold customer funds, and manage counterparty risk. The guidance represents the CFTC staff’s current interpretation of existing rules, not new regulation with the force of law. Firms that follow it can expect favorable treatment from examiners, but technically, the guidance could be revised or superseded without a formal rulemaking process.

  • EBA Recommends Expanding MiCA to Include Crypto Lending

    EBA Recommends Expanding MiCA to Include Crypto Lending

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) has recommended that the European Commission consider incorporating crypto lending into the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation as part of the ongoing review of the EU’s digital asset framework. The recommendations, open for consultation until September 30, aim to address evolving risks and clarify regulatory boundaries.

    According to the EBA, the crypto lending sector, including services that connect users to decentralized lending protocols, can pose risks to consumers not fully addressed under the existing framework. The authority has urged the European Commission to review and potentially expand MiCA’s scope to encompass these activities.

    Beyond crypto lending, the EBA called for stronger rules concerning third-country stablecoin arrangements. While the EBA considers existing requirements for asset referenced tokens and electronic money tokens broadly appropriate, it noted that these structures can create significant risks and may necessitate changes to MiCA. The regulator also suggested a review of reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers, particularly concerning the minimum share of reserves held as bank deposits and effective risk management.

    Challenges in crypto asset classification were also highlighted by the EBA. The authority stated that unclear boundaries between MiCA and other EU financial rules can lead to unnecessary costs and delays for companies launching new products. To mitigate this, the EBA recommended clearer definitions and scope for crypto asset classification.

    Furthermore, the EBA seeks improvements to the reporting framework for token issuers and crypto service providers to enhance supervision and risk monitoring. These recommendations come as the European Commission conducts a broader review of MiCA to ensure its continued suitability as the crypto market develops.

    MiCA entered into full application in December 2024, with its stablecoin provisions taking effect in June 2024. As of September 1, 39 electronic money tokens had been issued under the framework, while no asset referenced tokens had been authorized, according to the EBA.

    The European Commission’s targeted consultation on the MiCA review remains open through September 30, and the outcomes could lead to legislative changes impacting the crypto industry within the European Union.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: The EBA has urged the European Commission to review and potentially expand the scope of the MiCA regulation to encompass crypto lending, including services that connect users to decentralized lending protocols. Whether the European Commission will adopt the EBA’s recommendation to include crypto lending under MiCA.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the factual news in this context: The European Banking Authority has urged the European Commission to consider bringing crypto lending under MiCA as part of its review of the European Union’s digital asset regulatory framework.

  • Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE Show Mixed Technical Signals Amidst Uncertainty

    Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, and HYPE Show Mixed Technical Signals Amidst Uncertainty

    Recent price action across Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Binance Coin (BNB), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) presents a complex picture of technical indicators and potential price levels, where definitive future movements remain subject to key resistance points and market uncertainties. This analysis examines the latest movements and technicals for these cryptocurrencies, highlighting observed performance and potential future scenarios with appropriate caveats.

    Why This Matters

    The materials describe a narrow update: The article analyzes recent price performance and future price expectations for several cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Binance Coin (BNB), and Hyperliquid (HYPE). Whether Ethereum’s pullback at $2,800 is a brief pause or a more significant reversal.

    Broader Context

    Source materials place the market analysis in this context: This week, Ethereum rallied by 10% and managed to test the resistance at $2,800.

    Ethereum (ETH)

    Ethereum has observed a notable rally this week, increasing by 10% and testing resistance at the $2,800 mark. According to the analysis, Ethereum’s price action indicates a potential bottom around $1,500. However, uncertainty surrounds whether the pullback at $2,800 represents a brief pause or a more significant reversal. If the $2,800 resistance were to convert into support, the path towards $3,000 and potentially higher targets like $3,300 and $4,000 could open up, though this remains speculative. The author expects that Ethereum is on a path to recover losses incurred since 2025, but this is contingent on sustained recent price movement.

    Ripple (XRP)

    Ripple (XRP) retested the $1.6 resistance level and concluded the week with a 15% increase. Sell volume reportedly increased at $1.6, preventing further immediate gains. The article suggests that as long as sellers maintain control at this level, XRP is likely to trade within a range of $1.3 to $1.6. There remains uncertainty regarding XRP’s ability to break through the $1.6 resistance. Considering the broader market, the price may eventually aim for $2, but this is not a certainty. The author expects that XRP’s price may eventually break away and aim for $2 next.

    Cardano (ADA)

    Cardano (ADA) has shown strong performance, turning $0.23 into support and confirming $0.15 as a bottom. ADA closed the week 23% higher, indicating a significant bullish resurgence. The article suggests that this reported support allows the price to aim higher, with $0.30 and $0.33 identified as major future targets. However, the momentum needs to hold for these targets to be reached, and the price might re-test $0.23 as support before further advances. Uncertainty persists regarding whether ADA’s current momentum will be sufficient to reach the projected higher levels.

    Binance Coin (BNB)

    Binance Coin (BNB) is up 6% this week, with buyers appearing to dominate the chart. The cryptocurrency has established a higher high and is approaching the $800 level. The current resistance for BNB is identified at $900, with a key support level at $690. With recent price movement observed, a test of the $900 resistance appears likely in the coming days. The article suggests that a four-digit valuation at $1,000 could act as a magnet for the price, especially following a long consolidation period around $600. However, there is uncertainty about whether BNB will reach $1,000 before the end of the year, and the author expects a price above $1,000 to be likely before the end of 2026.

    Hyperliquid (HYPE)

    Hyperliquid (HYPE) reached a new record price of $98 and closed the week 17% higher. The cryptocurrency is currently experiencing a pullback. This level is noted as a key resistance before the $100 milestone becomes achievable. Considering the overall momentum, buyers may continue to push the price towards $100. There is uncertainty about whether sellers will re-enter the market once the $100 level is reached. The article suggests that as long as current momentum continues, the $100 milestone should be easily reached, positioning the cryptocurrency for further gains before the end of 2026.

    In conclusion, the observed price movements across Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid reveal varied technical signals. While some assets show potential for further upside based on current indicators, key resistance levels and market dynamics introduce significant uncertainties. The analysis emphasizes that future price action remains subject to these factors, rather than guaranteed outcomes.

  • Trump, Regulators Push for Perpetual Futures in US

    Trump, Regulators Push for Perpetual Futures in US

    Perpetual Futures Expand Beyond Crypto into Mainstream U.S. Markets

    Perpetual futures, the financial instruments that fueled the cryptocurrency market’s ascent to a trillion-dollar valuation, are now poised to enter the mainstream U.S. financial system, targeting oil, gold, and equities. A regulatory push, spearheaded by President Donald Trump and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), aims to integrate these never-expiring derivatives contracts into the broader financial landscape.

    Unlike traditional futures contracts, which are bound by a specific expiration date for settlement, perpetual futures eliminate the calendar entirely. These contracts function as an open-ended bet on an asset’s price, remaining active until a trader chooses to close their position. Instead of expiration dates, a “funding rate” mechanism is employed to keep the contract’s price aligned with the underlying asset’s spot market price. This system involves periodic payments between traders who are long and those who are short, creating an economic incentive for the contract price to remain close to the real-time market value.

    Originating in cryptocurrency markets, perpetual futures gained significant traction due to their ability to offer leveraged exposure without the recurring administrative burden of rolling over contracts. Offshore platforms, such as Hyperliquid, have reported annual trading volumes in the tens of trillions of dollars solely from these perpetual contracts.

    The CFTC’s approval of Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures contract, designated BTCPERP, on May 29, 2026, marked a pivotal regulatory moment. By classifying BTCPERP as a futures contract rather than a swap, the CFTC established a legal precedent for introducing perpetuals into regulated U.S. markets.

    The agency’s initiative extends beyond cryptocurrencies. The CFTC issued a policy statement mandating that perpetual futures referencing precious metals, oil, energy commodities, equities, and other traditional financial instruments will undergo individual reviews under Regulation 40.3. This approach ensures each new contract is evaluated on a case-by-case basis, rather than receiving a blanket approval or denial.

    Kalshi has moved swiftly to capitalize on this regulatory shift. On July 21, 2026, the platform, which began as a prediction market before expanding into derivatives, filed applications for perpetual futures contracts on gold, silver, and platinum. By September 2026, perpetual contracts for gold and silver were operational, offering round-the-clock trading five days a week.

    The CFTC also initiated a public comment period from June through August 2026 regarding the potential for 24/7 trading in energy commodities.

    President Trump has actively supported these regulatory developments. At a White House event in August 2026, he lauded the regulatory efforts and specifically encouraged offshore platforms like Hyperliquid to comply with U.S. regulations, underscoring an ambition to position the United States as a leading global hub for derivatives trading.

    However, this expansion is not without its critics. CME Group, a major player in traditional futures trading based in Chicago, filed a lawsuit against the CFTC in June 2026. Their central contention is that perpetual futures should be classified as swaps, not futures contracts.

    This distinction carries significant regulatory weight. Swaps are subject to different, generally more stringent, regulatory requirements than futures, including variations in margin rules, reporting obligations, and oversight structures. If CME’s legal challenge proves successful, it could lead to perpetual contracts facing a regulatory framework that significantly increases their cost and complexity to offer.

    CME Group’s opposition is also driven by competitive concerns. The exchange’s revenue model is largely based on traditional futures contracts with expiration dates. The continuous trading of perpetual contracts presents a direct challenge to this established business model. The ability for traders to hold gold perpetuals indefinitely without the need for contract rollovers could diminish the appeal of standard monthly gold futures.

    The challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, such as those surrounding Iran in 2026, highlighted the risks investors face from overnight market movements when trading is restricted. Perpetual contracts offer a solution by enabling continuous trading, allowing investors to hedge against such risks.

    Perpetual futures are inherently high-leverage instruments. In crypto markets, leverage ratios of 10x, 50x, or even higher are common. Extending this level of leverage to retail investors trading oil or equities raises significant concerns regarding investor protection. The CFTC’s case-by-case review process under Regulation 40.3 appears to be designed to address these potential risks.

  • Bitcoin ETFs Net $2B Amid $87K Price Rejection

    Bitcoin ETFs Net $2B Amid $87K Price Rejection

    US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant surge in institutional investment over the past week, attracting approximately $2 billion in net inflows. This marks the most robust institutional buying activity seen since late 2025. However, the rally in Bitcoin’s price proved short-lived, with the cryptocurrency briefly touching $87,397 before facing rejection and falling back below the $84,000 mark.

    Record Inflows Amidst Price Volatility

    The week’s trading saw a notable spike on September 21, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of around $999 million. This figure represents the largest one-day influx since October 2025, a period when Bitcoin’s market momentum was considerably different.

    The strong buying trend continued in the subsequent days. September 22 saw an additional $715 million enter the ETFs, followed by $347 million on September 23. These three consecutive days of substantial accumulation collectively pushed the week’s total inflows past the $2 billion threshold.

    Key Players Drive Inflows

    An examination of the record-breaking September 21 session highlights the dominant players in the market. BlackRock’s IBIT fund led the charge, absorbing $381 million, followed by ARK 21Shares’ ARKB with $289 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC with $239 million. These three products accounted for the vast majority of the day’s inflows, underscoring the concentration of the ETF market among a few major issuers.

    Shifting Institutional Sentiment

    Since August 19, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $4.6 billion. More significantly, this sustained buying pressure has propelled year-to-date ETF flows into positive territory, standing at roughly +$320 million. This represents a considerable turnaround from an earlier period this year characterized by significant outflows.

    Bitcoin’s Price Action and Resistance

    Bitcoin’s price briefly breached the $87,000 level for the first time since January, reaching an intraday high of $87,397. However, the cryptocurrency quickly retreated below $84,000, establishing the $87,000 mark as a significant resistance level.

    The recent rally was partly propelled by short liquidations, a common market dynamic where rising prices compel bearish traders to close their positions, thereby accelerating the upward price movement. Conversely, the subsequent price reversal triggered long liquidations. Analysts are closely monitoring support levels between $82,000 and $85,000 to gauge whether the current pullback represents a healthy consolidation or a more concerning trend.

    Implications for Institutional Adoption

    The shift in year-to-date ETF flows from net outflows to positive territory suggests a genuine change in institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin. Earlier in 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial capital outflows amid macroeconomic uncertainty and a prolonged price downturn that tested investor conviction. The cumulative inflows since mid-August alone now total $4.6 billion.

    The dominance of BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK 21Shares on the inflow leaderboard is also noteworthy. When a single fund like IBIT absorbs $381 million in one session, it reflects the type of institutional infrastructure utilized by pension funds, endowments, and registered investment advisors.

    A divergence appears to be emerging between ETF demand and Bitcoin’s price action. Theoretically, $2 billion in weekly buying should exert considerable upward pressure on the price. The fact that Bitcoin could not sustain the $87,000 level despite this accumulation suggests that sellers are equally active at these price points. The critical question for the coming weeks will be whether this pace of inflows can be maintained, or if the support zone between $82,000 and $85,000 will be tested imminently.

  • Mid-Tier Bitcoin Holders Accumulate 113,950 BTC Amid Price Rally

    Mid-Tier Bitcoin Holders Accumulate 113,950 BTC Amid Price Rally

    Mid-Sized Bitcoin Wallets Accumulate Heavily as Price Nears Key Resistance

    Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin have significantly increased their holdings, adding 113,950 BTC since July 15. This accumulation has boosted their combined reserves by 2.22% to 5.24 million BTC, according to data from Santiment. This buying spree coincides with Bitcoin’s recent brief surge to $87,000 earlier this week, before it pulled back and stabilized around $84,000.

    The central question for market observers is whether this sustained demand is building a solid foundation for a further price breakout, or if it’s merely a temporary bounce driven by short covering that could falter as leveraged positions unwind.

    Not all analysts are convinced that the recent price action reflects a genuine resurgence in risk appetite. Bernardo Brites, co-founder of Trace Finance, suggests that the speed of Bitcoin’s recovery was partly fueled by a short squeeze. He emphasizes that the more critical question is the origin of this new capital.

    “I wouldn’t interpret this as a broad return of risk appetite,” Brites stated. “Bitcoin rallying through a rate hike, $100 oil, and elevated yields suggests some investors are treating it as a hedge against inflation, fiscal and geopolitical risk rather than as a bet on easy money.”

    This perspective is crucial for interpreting the current resistance levels. It suggests that the market may be viewing Bitcoin as a macro hedge rather than a purely technical setup.

    Santiment has been tracking this cohort of 100-to-1,000 BTC wallets for five years, and their activity has historically correlated closely with market trends. Periods of substantial accumulation by these wallets have frequently preceded or coincided with significant price movements. The current data indicates that this group continued to buy throughout the recent recovery, suggesting that the rally is not solely driven by retail investors.

    Technical Outlook and Key Price Levels

    From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has reclaimed its 365-day moving average, which is currently situated around $80,500. This is a significant level, as Bitcoin last broke above it in March 2023, a move that preceded a substantial rally. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has surpassed the $76,000-$81,000 supply band, which had previously capped price action for several weeks.

    The $88,000-$90,000 price range is particularly noteworthy due to the distribution of Bitcoin supply, rather than being a psychological round number. A significant concentration of Bitcoin in this area suggests that sellers are likely to emerge as the price approaches it, making the $90,000 mark the next critical test for the market.

    This dual perspective—macro hedge versus technical setup—provides traders with a framework for anticipating future price movements. A sustained inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with renewed growth in stablecoin supply, would likely strengthen the current rally as it confronts resistance. Conversely, a slowdown in either of these factors, especially a decline in ETF demand while Bitcoin remains below $88,000, could leave the rally vulnerable to giving back gains as leveraged positions are liquidated.

    Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, has posited that the current market cycle is more likely to yield a 3-to-5x rally, rather than a repeat of the extreme 10x surges seen in previous cycles. He attributes this to a maturing market and increased institutional participation, which tend to temper excessive volatility.

    While this view does not predict Bitcoin’s exact trajectory beyond $90,000, it does adjust expectations for what constitutes a strong outcome in this cycle. This distinction is important to consider as the market navigates the current resistance test and the broader structural recovery unfolds.