World Cup Kicks Off, Betting Markets Brace for Financial Goals
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to commence Thursday across stadiums in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. While fans will be captivated by the sport itself, Wall Street is keenly observing a different kind of outcome: the billions of dollars anticipated to flow through sportsbooks and prediction markets over the coming month.
With an expanded 48-team format featuring 104 matches, the tournament offers approximately 60% more betting opportunities than previous World Cups. Analysts at investment firm Bernstein project an incremental handle exceeding $3 billion, with a broader consumer spending uplift of up to $10 billion across sports betting and prediction platforms.
This represents a significant financial surge during what is typically a slower period for the online sports betting industry. Bernstein has characterized the World Cup as a “potential watershed moment” for prediction markets and online sports betting, suggesting it could amplify the recent growth seen by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, thereby driving future expansion.
“Predictions are already showing momentum ahead of the first whistle,” Bernstein analysts noted. DraftKings reported this week that its annualized consumer volume in May increased by 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, with total traded volume rising 34% to $3.1 billion, continuing a rapid upward trend over the past three months.
“We have long maintained that prediction markets offer a new avenue for monetizing sports engagement, rather than posing a fundamental challenge to existing betting operations,” the analysts added. “Kalshi and Polymarket have achieved rapid scaling, primarily in California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida. However, we believe the World Cup presents an opportunity for other players in the market to accelerate customer acquisition, potentially leading to a trillion-dollar market volume by 2030.”
Robinhood is leveraging the event for the commercial debut of Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange. Coinbase, which reported surpassing $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue within two months of launching its product in early 2026, is offering World Cup-related contracts through its partnership with Kalshi.
On Myriad, a prediction market platform operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, users currently favor Spain to win the World Cup, assigning the team an 18% probability. France is a close second, with a 17% chance.
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