Analyst Predicts ‘Massive Bull Rally’ if US-Iran Peace Deal Is Signed
Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, has suggested that a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran, reportedly slated for June 19, could trigger a significant rally across risk assets. This outlook is based on historical market behavior following the resolution of past conflicts.
Dedic’s thesis posits that cryptocurrency, as the most volatile major asset class, would be the primary beneficiary once geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside.
In a June 15 post on X, Dedic began with a caveat, labeling any attempt to predict outcomes based on U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements or actions as “a fool’s game.” He drew a parallel between the president’s unpredictability and the performance of the Official Trump meme coin, which saw a surge of over 20% in the preceding week. However, he maintained that if the Iran deal proceeds as planned this Friday, the market setup would mirror previous instances where conflict-related uncertainty dissipated rapidly.
To illustrate, Dedic cited historical data showing the S&P 500 gaining 44% in the year following the end of the Korean War. Similarly, the S&P 500 rose 25% in the year after the Iraq War concluded. The analyst also highlighted that in 19 out of 20 post-World War II conflicts, markets typically recovered fully within an average of just 28 days after hostilities ceased.
Dedic assesses that the Iran situation has been the principal drag on recent risk appetite. He noted that Bitcoin (BTC) was trading near $65,000, a substantial 48% decline from its all-time high, with many altcoins experiencing even steeper drops. He anticipates that the removal of this “overhang” would lead to a swift repricing of cryptocurrencies, given their sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment.
“Everyone who’s been looking like an idiot for the last few months will soon look like a genius,” Dedic wrote.
President Trump confirmed the “Great Deal” on Truth Social. Market commentary account The Kobeissi Letter reported that the proposed agreement would extend the current ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The deal is also expected to pave the way for discussions on lifting sanctions against Iran and unfreezing its assets, including approximately $1 billion in cryptocurrency seized under Operation Economic Fury.
The market showed an immediate reaction to Trump’s announcement. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.8%, while Nasdaq futures gained 1.3%. Bitcoin (BTC) also advanced to its highest level in nearly two weeks.
Ethereum (ETH) reclaimed the $1,800 mark, having traded below this level since June 5. Data from CoinGecko indicates it briefly touched $1,700 on June 9 before retreating.
Other cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Solana, and Cardano also registered gains following the news of the peace deal. Among the major altcoins, Hyperliquid saw the most significant uptick, with its price just above $68 at the time of writing, marking a 10% increase within a single day.
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