World Cup Fever Fuels $5.6 Billion Surge in Prediction Markets
The FIFA World Cup’s knockout stage is set to commence on July 4, and the global passion for football, or soccer as it’s known in the United States, has become the dominant force driving activity on prediction platforms. This surge in interest has significantly diverted attention from the political and macroeconomic markets these platforms were originally designed to serve.
This trend is highlighted by data from research firm CryptoRank, which indicates that the tournament has propelled prediction market volumes from a modest $65 million on June 1 to a monthly peak of $5.6 billion on June 22.
According to CryptoRank’s analysis, total trading volume across major prediction venues saw a rapid ascent throughout June. It climbed from the aforementioned $65 million on June 1 to $340 million by June 8, just days before the World Cup kicked off. A week later, on June 15, the volume had surged to $2.2 billion, with 15 matches played, including the United States’ notable 4-1 victory over Paraguay in Los Angeles.
By June 22, with 42 games completed, trading on these platforms reached even greater heights. CryptoRank reported a high of $5.6 billion in volume before a slight decrease was observed seven days later, with approximately $5.4 billion in trades recorded on June 29.
In a July 2 post on X, CryptoRank noted that Kalshi was responsible for a substantial portion of this June activity. At the time of writing, its dashboard indicated an open interest—the total value of active positions yet to be settled—standing at $1.84 billion. Of this total, roughly $1.45 billion was attributed to Kalshi, with Polymarket holding approximately $390 million.
During the preceding week, open interest remained relatively stable on Kalshi, hovering around $1 billion. On Polymarket, however, open interest peaked at $475 million on June 30, the same day Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands were dramatically eliminated from the competition.
BitMart reported similar trends on its platform. With multiple research institutions projecting that total global trading volume on prediction markets could reach $10 billion, the crypto exchange stated that most of this traffic has so far been directed towards centralized platforms like itself. This is attributed to their lower barriers to entry compared to on-chain prediction products, which require private keys, gas fees, and multi-step contract approvals.
Consequently, BitMart reported that its monthly prediction market volumes experienced a staggering 1,500% increase from May after the World Cup commenced. The exchange also noted a 4.6-fold rise in active users and an almost nine-fold increase in completed orders.
Furthermore, the exchange revealed that nearly 44% of newly registered users placed their first trade through its prediction markets. Football markets served as the primary draw for these newcomers, before some expanded into crypto price predictions.
Polymarket’s comparatively subdued performance during the World Cup month, in contrast to Kalshi, has occurred amidst criticism on several fronts. For instance, a Wall Street Journal investigation published in June alleged that the platform has utilized staged winning bets in its promotional videos.
A recent dispute also garnered significant attention, wherein a user accused Polymarket of altering the rules of a market tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin sale, raising questions about how such firms resolve contested outcomes.
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