The Bitcoin mining difficulty has remained below its previous record for over a year, a duration that now exceeds historical precedents and signals unusual weakness in the industry. This prolonged period without a new difficulty high is occurring without a major disruptive event like the China ban, leading to speculation about a potential long-term migration of capital and electricity away from mining.
Historical Context and Current Downturn
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin mining difficulty reached an all-time high of almost 156 trillion on October 29, 2025. As of press time, it stood at just over 148 trillion, approximately 5% below that peak. This marks the longest stretch without a new difficulty record in Bitcoin’s history, surpassing the previous longest period of roughly 364 days between August 2011 and July 2012. In contrast, previous significant downturns were often triggered by major events such as China’s ban on cryptocurrency mining.
Structural Economic Pressures
Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, noted that the current slowdown is structural. He attributed it partly to Bitcoin’s pre-programmed halvings, which reduce the block subsidy by 50% approximately every four years. This economic reality necessitates a significant annual increase in Bitcoin’s value to maintain mining profitability. Ammous estimated that mining economics require the cryptocurrency’s value to appreciate by almost 19% annually over four years, before accounting for dollar devaluation and the growing opportunity cost associated with AI infrastructure. If expected returns fall below this threshold, allocating more capital and electricity toward mining becomes progressively less attractive.
Competition for Resources and Industry Adaptation
Furthermore, Bitcoin miners may no longer hold the same monopoly over cheap power and data-center infrastructure they once enjoyed. AI companies are increasingly competing for these resources, potentially offering miners more profitable alternatives. Core Scientific serves as a prime example of this industry shift. The company has announced plans to exit the Bitcoin mining space by the end of the year, aiming to operate as a dedicated AI and high-performance computing colocation provider by 2027. Core Scientific has already reduced its mining fleet by nearly half, redirecting electricity and data-center capacity towards infrastructure customers. This strategic pivot is financially motivated, as evidenced by Core Scientific’s colocation revenue, which jumped 58% quarter-over-quarter to $215.4 million in the third quarter, a significant increase from $15 million a year earlier.
Potential Implications for Bitcoin
Despite these challenges, Ammous does not necessarily view this trend as bearish for Bitcoin. He suggested that if mining becomes less attractive than simply holding Bitcoin, capital that might have been invested in mining equipment, facilities, and electricity could instead flow directly into Bitcoin itself. Additionally, a decline in electricity consumption by miners is expected to mitigate one of the asset’s most persistent criticisms.
Remaining Uncertainties
However, uncertainties remain regarding the long-term implications of this downturn. It is unclear whether the current weakness in Bitcoin mining represents a temporary cyclical dip or a more permanent migration of capital and electricity towards other sectors like AI. The extent to which Bitcoin’s price will need to appreciate to compensate miners for reduced block subsidies, especially when factoring in inflation and the opportunity cost of AI infrastructure, also remains a key question.
Broader Context
Source materials place the factual news in this context: Bitcoin’s mining industry is showing unusual weakness, even as the network remains highly valuable.
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