Category: Uncategorized

Bitcoin Slides as Warsh Stays Hawkish and Markets Await a Lasting US-Iran Agreement: Weekly Recap

The cryptocurrency markets experienced another volatile week, punctuated by geopolitical developments and central bank policy signals. Early in the week, promising news emerged regarding a potential deal among parties involved in the Middle East conflict, initially sparking optimism.

However, the path forward proved complex. Bitcoin’s price struggled to breach the $64,000 mark until Sunday evening, coinciding with the announcement of a potential deal. This news triggered an immediate surge, propelling BTC to $66,000 within hours and further to over $67,000 on Monday, reaching a multi-week high.

The rally was short-lived. In the hours preceding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, the first under the new Fed Chair, Bitcoin dipped below $65,000 before briefly jumping to $66,400. However, the Federal Reserve’s confirmation of no interest rate cuts, as widely anticipated, coupled with a hawkish tone from former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh in his subsequent speech, led to another decline.

Bitcoin continued its downward trend in the following days, hitting a weekly low of $62,300 earlier today. This slump occurred amid growing concerns that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran might not materialize. Nevertheless, reports emerged today that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire, scheduled to commence at 14:00 BST on Friday.

In response, Bitcoin saw another uptick, trading above $63,000 as of press time. The cryptocurrency is likely to gain further momentum if a permanent deal is indeed signed as promised. However, the broader market sentiment remains fragile, particularly with ongoing uncertainty surrounding Strategy and its controversial STRC shares. Further details on this will be provided shortly.

For the week, Bitcoin remains in negative territory, alongside BNB, DOGE, XMR, CC, BCH, and ADA. In contrast, HYPE, XLM, WLD, UNI, and RAIN have posted double-digit gains.

Market Cap: $2.26T | 24H Vol: $75B | BTC Dominance: 56.1%
BTC: $63,230 (-1.3%) | ETH: $1,700 (+0.85%) | XRP: $1.14 (-0.9%)

Strive CEO: Sharp STRC, SATA Drops Were Leverage Liquidations, Not Credit Failures

Despite making another $100 million Bitcoin acquisition this week, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has faced scrutiny over its STRC shares. The financial vehicle has fallen significantly below its intended $100 price point, and a sharp decline on Thursday exacerbated investor concerns, even as Strive’s CEO defended the product and its issuer.

Bitcoin Dips Below $64K Again: Here’s How Whales Reacted

Amidst Bitcoin’s price instability and persistent weakness, large holders, or “whales” (those with at least 1,000 BTC), have increased their holdings to their highest levels in over three months. These entities now control nearly 36% of Bitcoin’s available supply.

Morgan Stanley Files Amendments, Clearing Path for Cheapest ETH, SOL ETFs

Months after launching its Bitcoin ETF, Morgan Stanley has filed amendments for its Ethereum and Solana ETF applications. If approved, these new financial products are expected to be the most cost-effective on the market and will incorporate staking arrangements.

BlackRock Rolls Out Bitcoin Income ETF as Demand for Covered Calls Grows

In related news, the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, has launched its iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA). This new offering expands its product lineup with a yield-focused vehicle designed to capitalize on the growing demand for covered call strategies.

Illinois Passed the Most Anti-Crypto Law in the US: Miles Jennings

On June 17, Illinois enacted the Digital Asset Privilege Tax Act. Miles Jennings of Andreessen Horowitz described the legislation as “one of the most anti-crypto laws in the US,” imposing a 0.2% tax on the exchange, transfer, and custody of cryptocurrencies, with limited exemptions for routine self-custody activities.

Bitmine Adds $135M in ETH, Closing In on 5% of Ethereum Supply

The broader market’s weakness has not deterred Bitmine from its objective of acquiring 5% of Ethereum’s total supply. In its latest acquisition, the company announced it had purchased approximately 77,000 ETH for $135 million, bringing its total holdings to 5,620,754 tokens.

This week’s analysis also includes charts and price action for Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid. A complete price analysis is available.

A prominent cryptocurrency analyst has identified a critical technical indicator for XRP, suggesting its two-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached a pivotal 50 mark. This level, according to the analyst, serves as a dividing line between a potential continuation of a broader market downturn and the commencement of a new expansionary phase for the digital asset.

XRP is currently trading around $1.12, reflecting a nearly 5% decline over the past 24 hours and an approximately 18% drop in the last month.

EGRAG CRYPTO, in a June 19 post on X, outlined a recurring pattern observed in XRP’s longer-term charts: a significant surge, followed by a cooling period, a reset, and ultimately, an expansion. The analyst noted that XRP’s two-month RSI is now positioned precisely at the 50 threshold, which he characterizes as a “battlefield level” rather than a definitive signal for either direction.

His reasoning suggests that maintaining a position above 50 indicates an attempt by momentum to stabilize. Conversely, a decisive drop below this level could pave the way for a deeper correction, potentially targeting the 43.66 RSI zone.

EGRAG CRYPTO believes that a recovery and sustained hold above the 52.85 to 55.45 range would signal a repair in macro momentum. From that point, he identifies the 80 RSI as the level where a more aggressive upward trajectory could come into play.

“The 2-month RSI does not speak often. But when it does, it speaks MACRO,” the analyst stated.

Complementing this RSI analysis, EGRAG CRYPTO also pointed to XRP’s two-month chart, which he believes is forming an ascending triangle with an A-B-C-D-E structure. He assesses that the initial four waves are complete, and the token may now be navigating the final “E” wave before attempting a breakout.

However, the analyst cautioned that his price targets remain contingent on several factors. XRP must first establish rising support, reclaim its 7-week moving average, and overcome resistance between $2.00 and $2.10. Only then would broader Fibonacci-based targets, ranging from $9.50 to an “extreme cycle extension” near $100, become relevant.

This outlook aligns with a previous analysis by EGRAG CRYPTO, where he mapped out three historical pump scenarios for XRP based on a larger triangle pattern. In that assessment, the conservative case projected a price range of $6.50 to $9.27, a “balanced” cycle case around $13, and an extreme case near $60, all modeled on XRP’s initial major cycle movement.

The broader market context for XRP has been challenging. The asset has fallen below the $1.20 support level following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and press conference. Some analysts have warned that a rejection at the $1.20 to $1.21 resistance could push the sixth-largest cryptocurrency towards the $1.00 mark.

On-chain activity has also shown a slowdown, with active addresses decreasing by nearly 50% in the past two weeks, according to analyst Ali Martinez. Furthermore, over the last five days, large holders have divested more than 30 million XRP, although they still collectively control nearly 70% of the asset’s total supply.

Despite these headwinds, a positive development has been the performance of spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). These products have continued to attract inflows even as Bitcoin and Ethereum funds experienced outflows. Data from SoSoValue indicates that in the week leading up to June 18, net inflows for XRP ETFs reached $10.66 million, contrasting with the $226 million bled by BTC ETFs and the $10.05 million lost by ETH-tracking funds during the same period.

Pi Network Pushes Ecosystem Growth Amidst Protocol Upgrades

The often-discussed cryptocurrency project Pi Network is demonstrating significant activity, with its development team rolling out substantial updates and enhancements to its ecosystem.

Dogecoin and Cardano Face Market Pressures

Meanwhile, the original meme coin, Dogecoin (DOGE), has experienced a considerable downturn recently, and several indicators suggest this sell-off could persist in the immediate future. Cardano’s native token, ADA, is also struggling, with some analysts predicting further price declines.

Pi Network’s Protocol and Ecosystem Expansion

At the beginning of June, the Pi Network Core Team announced the successful implementation of protocol v24. This upgrade primarily focused on bolstering the underlying infrastructure that supports node operations and mainnet activity. The next major objective, v25, was initially slated for completion by June 18. However, the team recently indicated that additional time might be required, suggesting a potential delay.

Beyond infrastructure, Pi Network is actively encouraging its users, referred to as “Pioneers,” to contribute to ecosystem expansion. This involves inviting developers to integrate their AI-driven applications into the project’s distribution network via Pi App Studio. This initiative is set to continue until Pi2Day, a community-recognized celebration observed annually on June 28.

The Core Team also provided an update on the testing phase of the Pi Launchpad, which is currently utilizing a new test token named SLICE. The objective of this development is to familiarize users with novel ecosystem token mechanics and to educate the community on engaging with decentralized finance (DeFi) mechanisms.

“The updated participation flow is simpler and clearer,” a statement from the team explained. “Participation is now centered around the commitment amount, which has a direct effect on token acquisition. A Pioneer chooses how much Test-Pi they want to commit, and the Launchpad automatically calculates the related ‘fair-access hold,’ and then shows the commitment amount, hold amount, and total together before confirmation.”

More recently, Pi Network announced that its Ecosystem Directory Staking feature has received a “new look and improved user experience.” The team elaborated that by staking PI coins, Pioneers can collectively support applications and services. Simultaneously, developers and creators can leverage this feature to promote their products and access Pi’s community of over 60 million engaged users to attract new customers.

Dogecoin’s Downturn and Whale Activity

The largest meme coin by market capitalization has been impacted by the prolonged bear market, with its price falling 52% over the past year to $0.08. Furthermore, recent activity among large holders, or “whales,” suggests that bullish sentiment may face continued challenges in the short term.

According to reports, approximately 420 million DOGE have been moved by these market participants in the last seven days, and their total holdings have decreased to nearly 35 billion coins.

While this does not definitively signal an imminent collapse, it indicates that these investors may be positioning themselves for further declines. Their actions are closely monitored by retail traders, who could potentially follow suit and amplify any sell-off.

Cardano Faces Significant Price Drops

Cardano’s native token has experienced an even steeper decline than DOGE. Its valuation has fallen to around $0.16, with its market capitalization dropping below $6 billion. The asset is at risk of falling out of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Worrying commentary from Cardano’s co-founder, Charles Hoskinson, has reportedly fueled further unease within the community, and some prominent analysts believe conditions could deteriorate further.

For instance, analyst Ali Martinez noted that ADA has been forming a bearish flag pattern since the beginning of June and is now breaking out of this structure. Martinez suggested that “the odds have significantly increased for a bigger price correction towards $0.13.”

Strive CEO: Sharp STRC, SATA Drops Were Leverage Liquidations, Not Credit Failures

Strive CEO Matt Cole stated on June 19 that the recent sharp sell-off in Strategy’s STRC and his company’s SATA was driven by forced liquidations from leveraged investors, rather than any decline in the issuers’ financial strength.

His remarks followed one of the most volatile trading sessions the sector has experienced. STRC plummeted to $82.50 and SATA dropped into the low $90s before both instruments recovered as buyers re-entered the market.

In an extensive post on X, the Strive chief described Thursday as the most challenging day in the history of what he termed “Digital Credit.” He explained that investors seeking higher yields had increasingly borrowed against assets like STRC and SATA. However, as prices began to fall, margin calls triggered further selling, creating a cascade effect that depressed prices irrespective of underlying fundamentals.

“What happened today was a leverage liquidation event, not a deterioration in underlying credit quality,” Cole wrote.

He drew a parallel to past failures in leveraged Treasury trades, arguing that those collapses were not due to Treasuries becoming bad credits but rather to investors overextending themselves while chasing yield on assets they perceived as safe.

Regarding Strive specifically, Cole asserted that the firm’s dividend reserves remained untouched and that the company was not under any financial strain. He further noted that leveraged sell-offs are not necessarily indicative of weak collateral. In fact, he suggested, they often occur because the collateral appeared stable enough to entice investors to pile on leverage in the first place.

However, when pressed by Udi Wertheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, on why STRC’s peak had appeared weak even before the crash, with the stock only reaching $97 around its last ex-dividend date, Cole conceded that demand had softened somewhat. He attributed this to a weak Bitcoin market, jitters surrounding Strategy’s recent corporate actions, and unease over the company’s use of cash to pay down a convertible note.

Cole also emphasized that a more significant factor was the nature of the buying activity.

“If a security has billions of dollars of demand from long-only institutions, that is very different from demand driven by highly leveraged buyers,” the executive observed. “The latter can create strong demand on the way in, but also a much sharper unwind when prices move against them as we saw.”

According to Cole, Strive possesses a straightforward mechanism with SATA to manage situations where growth outpaces demand: reducing the interest rate to slow down activity.

Market data indicates that STRC has since recovered to approximately $89 following the sell-off. This figure remains below its $100 par value, placing its effective yield near 13% with 30-day volatility around 21%. Meanwhile, SATA, its newer and smaller counterpart, has shown more resilience, trading just above $97 at the time of this report.

Strategy has stated that its Bitcoin treasury, currently valued at around $53 billion given Bitcoin’s price near $63,000, is sufficient to cover dividends for 32 years, considering the firm’s annual obligations of approximately $1.7 billion. Critics, such as Peter Schiff, have frequently challenged this projection, arguing that it assumes Bitcoin’s price will not decline and the dividend rate will not increase.