UpGate

Category: Uncategorized

  • NYSE Parent Studies Hyperliquid’s Crypto Expertise

    NYSE Parent Studies Hyperliquid’s Crypto Expertise

    Hyperliquid, a crypto platform, has spurred interest from traditional markets, prompting discussions and scrutiny of its 24/7 trading model. Regulators are now being asked whether U.S. exchanges can offer similar perpetual futures under clear guidelines.

    ICE’s Interest in Hyperliquid

    According to Jeffrey Sprecher, founder, chairman, and CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the company is engaging with Hyperliquid to understand its operations. Sprecher made these remarks during a fireside chat at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference on Wednesday.

    “We’re not freaked out about it,” Sprecher said, referring to Hyperliquid. “We’re actually talking to these people and learning about it. They’re learning what we’re doing. We’re helping them understand our world. They’re helping us understand their world.”

    Hyperliquid allows traders to bet on price movements around the clock, outside of the traditional Wall Street system. Perpetual futures, or “perps,” are contracts that enable traders to speculate on price direction without an expiration date.

    Sprecher highlighted the question of whether regulated exchanges can offer products comparable to the perpetual futures already available on crypto platforms. ICE, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, has inquired with regulators about the restrictions preventing traditional venues from offering similar products.

    “But what we are saying to the regulators is: Can we do that?” Sprecher said. “Like, why are you prohibiting us from doing this when it’s already happening? And can’t we have a level playing field?”

    Regulatory Developments

    The gap between traditional and crypto markets is already closing. On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order allowing Kalshi to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures, a move that brings part of the market Sprecher described closer to regulated U.S. venues.

    Coinbase, a publicly traded U.S. crypto exchange, also announced Friday that it can now connect U.S. institutional clients to global crypto options and perpetual futures liquidity through its CFTC-regulated futures business.

    SpaceX as a Test Case

    On Wednesday, Sprecher pointed to SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company, as a near-term test of whether prices formed on crypto trading venues can influence a company’s public listing.

    Market participants and regulators will be watching whether a derivative price linked to SpaceX, formed before the IPO, proves irrelevant or becomes a reference point for the listing, he added.

    Traders are already using perpetual futures to bet on SpaceX’s expected listing price months before a potential IPO, with those contracts averaging nearly $18 million in daily volume over two weeks, according to Bloomberg.

    Interest in SpaceX has also grown alongside reports that Musk has discussed folding the rocket firm together with Tesla, a move that could place more than $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin under one corporate roof.

    Ultan Miller, CEO of private markets infrastructure firm Hecto Finance, told Decrypt that such discussions suggest price discovery for companies such as SpaceX is “increasingly happening on crypto rails” before a bank syndicate files their IPO paperwork.

    “Perpetuals are not the only tool in that shift, but they are an important signal of where marginal views on value are being expressed and hedged in real time,” Miller said. He added that regulators should focus on providing a “clear, technology neutral home onshore” for this activity to improve transparency in “notoriously opaque private markets.”

    Wall Street’s Perspective

    Fernando Lillo, marketing director at crypto trading platform Zoomex, told Decrypt that ICE’s talks with Hyperliquid demonstrate that Wall Street is taking on-chain derivatives more seriously.

    Lillo noted that access to companies such as SpaceX before they go public has long been “a venture capitalists’ and institutional elites’ game.”

    Traditional firms previously viewed crypto derivatives platforms as “unregulated shadow markets,” he said, but now, Hyperliquid highlights an “on-chain architecture validation” and “retail-driven pre-IPO markets.”

    Sprecher is making a “pragmatic” case to regulators, Lillo said: “If the demand exists and the technology works, let us host it safely in a regulated environment before we lose the market entirely to offshore entities.”

    The demand is already evident on crypto platforms. While the door to Bitcoin perps is open, products outside of it still require a “case-by-case” review process, the CFTC said.

  • Lenovo Stock Soars in May, Driven by AI Server Demand

    Lenovo Stock Soars in May, Driven by AI Server Demand

    Lenovo’s stock surged as much as 31% on Friday, bringing its gains for May to 109% – its best monthly performance since 1999.

    Shares of the world’s largest PC maker have more than doubled this month, making it the top performer on the Hang Seng Index year-to-date, with a 159% increase.

    Strong Earnings Fuel Rally

    The rally was driven by strong financial results. Lenovo’s fourth-quarter earnings showed quarterly revenue of $21.6 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase and its fastest quarterly growth rate in five years. Net profit reached $521 million, a 479% increase from $90 million a year earlier. Such a significant profit increase for a company of Lenovo’s size prompted the market to reassess its price targets.

    Infrastructure Solutions Group Drives Growth

    The company’s Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), which builds AI-optimized servers, storage systems, and data center products for large enterprise clients and cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, was a key driver of this growth. ISG posted record quarterly revenue of $5.6 billion, up 37% year-on-year, and reached $19.2 billion for the full fiscal year.

    Across the entire company, AI-related revenue grew 84% year-on-year and now accounts for 38% of Lenovo’s total quarterly sales. More than one in three dollars that Lenovo earns today is tied to AI. Goldman Sachs more than doubled its price target on Lenovo following these results.

    Dell’s Performance Further Boosts Investor Confidence

    Dell’s recent performance also contributed to investor optimism. On Thursday, Dell Technologies reported first-quarter fiscal year 2027 revenue of $43.84 billion, an 88% year-on-year increase, and raised its full-year AI server revenue guidance to $60 billion. Dell’s AI server backlog now stands at $51.3 billion. Investors responded by buying Lenovo stock.

    “AI server growth is obviously a driver, with demand now spreading from hyperscalers to enterprise for AI inferencing demand, which benefits conventional server OEMs like Lenovo and Dell,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Tseng.

    Shift to Enterprise Clients

    The shift in demand from hyperscalers like Amazon and Google to regular enterprise companies is a significant development. For the past two years, the AI infrastructure buildout has been concentrated around Nvidia chips and a few specialized players. Lenovo and Dell are now assembling the racks, qualifying the hardware configurations, and shipping compute-ready systems to businesses seeking AI solutions without building them from scratch.

    PC Business Remains Strong

    Lenovo’s PC business is also performing well. The Intelligent Devices Group posted $14.6 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, up 24% year-on-year, with Lenovo holding a 24.4% global PC market share – its widest lead over its nearest rival in 15 years. The AI PC wave is contributing to this success. However, server infrastructure is what significantly impacted the stock price.

    Contrasting Performance in Hong Kong Tech

    The rally is even more striking when compared to the performance of other Hong Kong tech companies. The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen more than 15% this year, weighed down by internet platforms experiencing margin pressures due to AI hardware spending. Lenovo, on the other hand, is selling the infrastructure, not buying it.

    Ambitious Targets Set

    CEO Yuanqing Yang called fiscal year 2026 the best year in Lenovo’s 40-year history and set a target of $100 billion in annual revenue within two years. Full-year revenue reached $83.1 billion, up 20% – the first time the company has surpassed the $80 billion mark.

    ISG enters fiscal year 2027 with an AI server pipeline exceeding $21 billion in committed demand, although the speed at which Lenovo can fulfill these orders depends on securing GPU allocations from Nvidia, which remains the primary supply constraint across the server industry.

  • Coinbase Launches Global Crypto Perpetual Futures

    Coinbase Launches Global Crypto Perpetual Futures

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has authorized Coinbase to offer crypto perpetual futures, paving the way for the U.S. exchange to connect its customers to the high-stakes offshore market.

    Access to Offshore Market

    Coinbase is now effectively permitted to provide its customers access to the global crypto perpetual futures market through Deribit, an offshore crypto options exchange Coinbase acquired for $2.9 billion last year. Perpetual futures are derivative contracts without an expiration date, allowing traders to make highly leveraged bets on the future price of crypto assets using borrowed capital.

    A source familiar with the matter told Decrypt that Coinbase has yet to determine which crypto assets it will enable for perpetual futures trading. The CFTC has cleared the way for the company to offer all “digital commodity” perpetual futures contracts traded on Deribit—a category that includes markets for tokens such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and the TRUMP meme coin, among others.

    Coinbase will decide which of those assets are “fit for purpose” and “the right kind of assets” to offer U.S. customers in the form of perpetual futures, the source said.

    Risks and Rewards

    Successful bets on perpetual futures can yield significant returns for traders. However, losing bets can be quickly liquidated or forcibly closed by exchanges, potentially triggering a devastating cascade effect. Last fall, rapid price fluctuations in crypto markets wiped out $19 billion worth of crypto positions within minutes, largely due to the extent of leverage.

    CFTC’s Stance

    The CFTC has indicated for over a year its intention to regulate crypto perpetual futures, also known as “perps,” within the United States. While risky, the crypto perps market is highly lucrative. According to DeFi Llama, the past month alone saw over $588 billion in crypto perps trading volume. In contrast, the entire decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem saw just $160 billion in trading volume during the same period.

    On Thursday, Coinbase sent the CFTC a letter requesting a no-action letter—a guarantee that the regulator would not sue if Coinbase began offering customers access to offshore crypto perps. Less than 24 hours later, the CFTC responded with a detailed, 16-page document outlining a new policy permitting Coinbase’s requested activities.

    New Product Approval

    In addition to granting Coinbase the ability to offer offshore crypto perps on its domestic exchange, the CFTC also approved prediction market Kalshi to create its own Bitcoin perpetual futures in the United States—the first such American-born product of its kind.

    While Coinbase is the first U.S. crypto exchange to receive approval to offer U.S. customers access to the global crypto perps market, other exchanges are expected to follow suit, referencing the guidelines outlined in the CFTC’s no-action letter.

  • XRP’s Future: Expert Warns of Time Running Out

    XRP’s Future: Expert Warns of Time Running Out

    XRP Price Faces Potential Dip Before Possible Recovery

    XRP has been trading sideways for most of 2026, resembling a coiling spring, but the anticipated upward surge may not be imminent. The cryptocurrency’s four-month consolidation has kept its price below a significant resistance level of $1.65. According to crypto analyst CasiTrades, time is running out, as XRP could be headed for a further decline to lower macro support levels before any substantial recovery can begin.

    Four Months of Resistance at $1.65

    CasiTrades’ analysis is based on XRP’s failure to break above the upper boundary of its consolidation pattern on the 4-hour candlestick chart. As the chart illustrates, XRP has been trading within a range with lower highs for several months, creating a compression pattern. The next decisive move could be crucial for the broader trend.

    The $1.65 level is the most critical in this analysis, as it has acted as the ceiling of the current structure since February. Each rejection from this area has weakened the immediate bullish outlook. CasiTrades suggests that the longer XRP fails to reclaim $1.65, the more likely it is to experience a final drop to lower macro supports. The analyst has outlined XRP’s price action since early 2026 within an Elliott Wave triangle structure with sub-impulse waves.

    Lower Macro Support Levels for XRP

    CasiTrades has specified the downside levels she is watching: $1.10 and $0.87 on Coinbase. The $1.10 area corresponds with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $1.0854, while the $0.87 price target aligns with the 0.854 retracement near $0.8621.

    The next confirmed support lies between $1.26 and $1.30. A break below this range could push XRP to its year-to-date low around $1.11, bringing the deeper targets closer. Both price targets are derived from the broader macro downtrend that has shaped XRP’s structure over the past several months.

    The projected move would also complete the corrective sub-impulse wave 5, which began in February 2026, as well as the larger corrective wave 2 that started in late 2025. However, this does not necessarily invalidate a bullish structure. In fact, the analyst predicts that a move to macro support could be the final decline before a stronger recovery. The chart indicates a significant rebound from the lower support zone, with XRP potentially pushing back through $1.65 and exceeding $2 if sufficient bullish momentum emerges.

    At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.32 and is open to either direction. The first sign of a bullish shift would be XRP reclaiming $1.65 and establishing it as support.

  • AI Models Often Disagree on Basic Facts, Study Finds

    AI Models Often Disagree on Basic Facts, Study Finds

    AI Systems Often Disagree on Facts, Study Finds

    A new study reveals that when asked to assess the truth of a statement, five of the world’s most advanced AI systems frequently provide conflicting answers. The research, published this month by Kosta Jordanov at Lenz Research, found that at least one AI model offered a different verdict in two-thirds of the cases examined.

    The study evaluated GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3 Pro, Gemini 3 Pro with Search, and Sonar Pro on 1,000 real-world fact-check claims submitted by actual users. The models were tasked with selecting one of four labels: true, mostly true, misleading, or false.

    In 672 out of the 1,000 claims, at least one model diverged from the majority opinion. The disagreement was significant in 34% of the cases, with one model labeling a claim as true while another deemed it false.

    The study emphasized that the claims were submitted by real users for verification, rather than drawn from standard test sets. “Only one verdict bucket can be correct per claim, so any disagreement among the panel means at least one model’s verdict is label-inconsistent under this 4-bucket rubric,” the study stated.

    This research highlights a different challenge than the previously documented issue of AI “hallucination,” where chatbots fabricate information. Instead, the study reveals that these models struggle to agree on basic factual judgments about the same material.

    The researchers employed a methodology designed to make it more difficult for AI companies to dismiss the findings. The claims were sourced from real-world submissions to Lenz’s fact-checking platform, making it unlikely that they would appear in training data with a definitive answer key. The study noted, “Most of these claims are unlikely to appear in any training corpus with a gold label attached—there’s no canonical answer key to pattern-match against, no benchmark leaderboard to anchor to.”

    The statistical measure of agreement, Krippendorff’s alpha, was 0.639 on a scale where 1.0 represents perfect agreement and 0 represents random chance. The study indicates “nontrivial but limited agreement.” Researchers noted, “The models’ verdicts are structured rather than random, but not consistent enough to treat the panel as a single interchangeable judge.” Generally, researchers consider anything below 0.8 to be weak.

    When all five models did agree, which occurred in only 328 out of 1,000 claims, they rarely agreed that a statement was misleading or mostly true. Only four claims received a unanimous “misleading” verdict, and none received a unanimous “mostly true” verdict.

    Examples of Disagreement

    The researchers provided examples of claims where the AI models showed the most divergence. For instance, regarding the claim “The World Bank’s active portfolio in Nigeria stands an over $16.4 billion as of 2025,” GPT-5.4 labeled it “mostly true,” while Gemini 3 Pro called it “false,” and Gemini 3 Pro + Search rated it “misleading.”

    In another example, the models were presented with the claim: “Donald Trump said that an attack on Iran was postponed at the request of Gulf Allies.” GPT-5.4 said it was false, Claude Opus 4.7 called it mostly true, Gemini 3 Pro said false, and Gemini 3 Pro + Search rated it true.

    The researchers found that the models tended to converge on definitive verdicts, with disagreement occurring in the middle ground of the rubric. Unanimity was only observed at the extremes: either the claim was definitively true or definitively false.

    Implications for Fact-Checking

    This finding is particularly relevant as people increasingly rely on AI systems for fact-checking. The study suggests that users could receive conflicting answers from different AI models when verifying a claim, raising questions about which source to trust.

    The study also challenges the narrative of continuous improvement often promoted by AI companies, which frequently cite benchmark scores. The Lenz study tested the models on the kind of ambiguous claims that humans commonly debate, revealing significant disagreement among the AI systems.

    The paper cautions against assuming that the majority verdict is always correct. “A majority of frontier models is not ground truth. The majority verdict is sometimes wrong; an individual dissenting model is sometimes right. We use the majority as a structural reference point for measuring disagreement, not as a stand-in for correctness.”

    The study highlights a deeper issue: when models disagree, at least one must be incorrect. The study calls a model’s verdict “label-inconsistent under this 4-bucket rubric.” There is no mechanism for resolving these disagreements.

    On the 328 claims where all five models agreed, zero received a unanimous “mostly true.” The nuance bucket emptied out completely. If AI models can only find consensus at the extremes, can they be trusted as fact checkers at all?

  • Wintermute Fuels Liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket

    Wintermute Fuels Liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket

    Wintermute, a major market maker in the cryptocurrency industry, confirmed on Friday that it is providing liquidity on prediction markets.

    The London-based firm, which claims to process over $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, announced in a blog post that it has been actively “quoting two-sided markets across event contracts on leading venues.”

    A source familiar with the matter told Decrypt that these venues include Polymarket and Kalshi. This suggests that capital is flowing dynamically between the two platforms, a process designed to make it easier for traders to buy and sell positions without significant price fluctuations.

    Liquidity and Market Development

    In a statement, Wintermute’s Head of OTC Trading, Jake Ostrovskis, described the liquidity profile for prediction markets as being in an “early-stage,” a characteristic that contrasts with growing demand.

    “For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity,” he said. “That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices.”

    The announcement underscores a fundamental operational connection between two companies operating in an emerging market. Kalshi has repeatedly stated that its business is exclusively based in the U.S., while Polymarket’s primary venue operates offshore.

    The Role of Liquidity Providers

    Rather than betting on the outcome of an event, liquidity providers aim to facilitate trades, primarily profiting from the “spread,” or the difference in costs associated with buy and sell orders. In a casino analogy, they would be akin to card dealers rather than gamblers.

    Wintermute stated that its involvement in the prediction market space transforms the platforms from “a nice forecasting tool into a broader venue for trading event risk,” adding that providing liquidity enhances the reliability of the probabilities displayed on Polymarket and Kalshi.

    Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an order on Friday allowing Kalshi to offer perpetual futures in the U.S. that are tied to Bitcoin’s price. Last year, Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy told Bloomberg that the firm plans to place a “new added focus on the U.S.”

  • Sui Network Suffers Second Day of Outage, Token Value Plummets.

    Sui Network Suffers Second Day of Outage, Token Value Plummets.

    The native token of the Sui blockchain, SUI, has fallen 20% this week following a “network stall” that caused downtime on the layer-1 blockchain for the second consecutive day.

    Price Performance

    Recently trading at $0.89, SUI has dropped an additional 2% in the last 24 hours and is now more than 83% below its January 2025 all-time high of $5.35. According to CoinGecko data, its weekly decline has placed it among the five worst-performing assets in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

    Network Outage

    “Sui mainnet is currently experiencing a network stall. Network activity may be paused at this time,” the network’s team posted on X on Friday morning.

    Sui developers shared the same message on Thursday when the layer-1 blockchain was down for over five hours before a patch was deployed to validators, temporarily restoring the network.

    “Activity on Sui mainnet has resumed after a halt due to a crash bug in the gas charging logic introduced by the 1.72 release. A full incident review will be shared in the coming days,” the network announced.

    Investigation and Response

    While a comprehensive postmortem of the incident is pending, the network indicated that Thursday’s outage was caused by a bug introduced in its latest release.

    It remains unclear whether Friday’s outage is related to Thursday’s incident or the subsequent patch. Representatives for the network and Mysten Labs, the core team behind it, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Previous Issues

    These outages follow a similar network stall in January, which resulted in six hours of downtime for the layer-1 blockchain’s mainnet.

    Background

    Hailed as a “Solana-killer,” the network has faced some of the same challenges as the high-speed layer-1 network, which has also experienced major outages in the past.

    Sui was launched in 2023 by Mysten Labs, which raised $300 million in a Series B funding round in 2022, valuing the company at approximately $2 billion at the time. Despite the recent decline, the network’s token currently trades with a market capitalization of around $3.6 billion.

  • Hyperliquid Surpasses Nasdaq in Trading Volume

    Hyperliquid Surpasses Nasdaq in Trading Volume

    Hyperliquid’s Rise

    Jeff Sprecher, founder of Intercontinental Exchange and architect of the modern NYSE, stated at Bernstein’s 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference that Hyperliquid, a cryptocurrency exchange, is larger than Nasdaq by volume. Sprecher noted that Hyperliquid was built by a team of only eleven people and cannot be ignored.

    Hyperliquid has attracted market participants, including traders who would typically operate in traditional markets like ICE and Nasdaq, to its blockchain platform. Sprecher highlighted the significance of Hyperliquid’s trading of crude oil perpetuals on weekends, when ICE’s markets are closed, particularly given that key price-moving events related to the Iran conflict have occurred on weekends.

    He also commented on institutional clients, stating that while most are not yet trading on blockchain, they are closely monitoring price discovery, and it is becoming part of the prevailing sentiment. Sprecher also discussed the potential impact of the SpaceX listing, suggesting that regulators and market participants will assess its relevance. He concluded that the industry will need to adapt to the 24/7, 365-day interplay of retail and professional trading.

    The market responded positively to Sprecher’s comments, with HYPE rebounding 10% overnight to $62.50.

    JPMorgan on the “Debasement Trade”

    JPMorgan analysts released a research note on Thursday arguing that the “debasement trade” is losing momentum. This trade involved buying Bitcoin and gold as hedges against inflation, geopolitical instability, and currency weakness.

    The analysts pointed to simultaneous outflows from both Bitcoin and gold ETFs over the past two weeks, along with weakening institutional positions in CME futures for both assets. JPMorgan suggested that the recent pullback may reflect growing expectations of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, leading investors to adjust their positions.

    The report suggests that geopolitical tensions are subsiding, reducing the need for hedging. However, Bitcoin’s performance as a debasement hedge during the Iran conflict was not particularly strong compared to stocks and gold.

    The true test of the debasement thesis will unfold over time as inflation continues to impact the US and global economies, which is the primary driver of the thesis, more so than geopolitical hedging.

    Standard Chartered’s Ethereum Outlook

    Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick published a note comparing Ethereum’s current situation to Amazon following the dot-com bubble burst, arguing that its price does not reflect the network’s improving metrics.

    Kendrick referenced Jeff Bezos’s statement during that period: “The stock is not the company. And the company is not the stock.” He noted that Amazon’s stock has increased significantly since its post-dot-com lows. Kendrick believes a similar disconnect exists for ETH.

    Standard Chartered maintained its year-end price target of $4,000 for Ethereum and $40,000 by the end of the decade. The bank’s bullish outlook is based on the dominance of DeFi and stablecoins. They forecast the stablecoin market cap to increase sevenfold to $2 trillion by 2028 and real-world assets (RWAs) to reach $2 trillion by 2028. Ethereum is expected to be the primary beneficiary of this growth, driving transaction volume and total value locked (TVL) to new highs, thus supporting higher ETH prices.

    In contrast, Polymarket bettors give only a 15% chance of ETH reaching $4,000 in 2026.

    Anthropic’s Funding Round

    Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round at a $965 billion post-money valuation, becoming the most valuable AI company in Silicon Valley. The round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, each contributing over $2 billion.

    Anthropic’s valuation has more than doubled since February, increasing from $380 billion.

    The company’s revenue has surged due to its AI coding assistant, Claude Code. Annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, up from a $30 billion run rate earlier this year and $10 billion in annual revenue last year. Anthropic also highlighted strategic infrastructure relationships with Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, and expanded its computing footprint through agreements with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, and SpaceX. Anthropic simultaneously released Claude Opus 4.8.

    This could be the AI startup’s final private fundraising before entering the public markets.

  • Crypto Prices Fall Amid ETF Outflows, Macro Concerns

    Crypto Prices Fall Amid ETF Outflows, Macro Concerns

    Crypto Market Downturn

    Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn over the past week, with Bitcoin leading the decline as investors moved away from riskier assets. Bitcoin began the week trading near the $77,000-$78,000 range but steadily lost momentum, falling to approximately $73,000 by Friday.

    This decline reflects a combination of macroeconomic pressures, renewed outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and reduced liquidity, rather than a single industry-specific event.

    The primary factor contributing to the downturn was the waning institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant redemptions, with over a billion dollars leaving in a single day. Simultaneously, activity among large holders increased, with whale outflows reaching their highest level since February, raising concerns that some investors are preparing to sell during the market weakness.

    Macroeconomic factors also played a role. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran diminished hopes for near-term interest rate cuts, negatively impacting speculative assets. Furthermore, analysts reported that central banks are increasing their gold reserves at an unprecedented rate, signaling a broader risk-off market sentiment.

    Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s downward trend, with Ethereum trading near $2,000. Overall risk appetite remains cautious.

    The week highlighted the crypto market’s sensitivity to ETF flows and macroeconomic risks. Bitcoin’s inability to maintain its price around the mid-$70,000 level suggests a defensive market outlook heading into the following week.

    Market Cap: $2.54T | 24H Vol: $83B | BTC Dominance: 57.7%
    BTC: $73,158 (-5.4%) | ETH: $1,995 (-5.9%) | XRP: $1.33 (-3.4%)

    SpaceX Pre-IPO Market Flash Crash

    The pre-IPO market for SpaceX on Hyperliquid, powered by Ventuals, experienced a sudden flash crash. The price plummeted by 45% before recovering, leading to mass liquidations. Ventuals has stated that affected traders will be compensated.

    Google Engineer Charged with Insider Trading

    U.S. prosecutors have charged a Google software engineer with allegedly using confidential information to profit from betting on Polymarket. He allegedly made $1.2 million by using proprietary search data.

    Hyperliquid Expands with Macro Prediction Markets

    Hyperliquid has expanded the range of outcome markets available on its platform. Initially, only fixed bets on Bitcoin’s daily price were available, but users can now trade on macro events such as monthly CPI prints and other economic indicators.

    Coinbase CEO on Financial System Evolution

    Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, stated that the financial system still requires significant upgrades. He emphasized that substantial technological innovation and policy work are needed to achieve these advancements.

    Galaxy Digital and BitGo Legal Battle Continues

    BitGo and Galaxy Digital are continuing their legal dispute over the failed $1.2 billion acquisition agreement, which was once expected to be the largest merger in the industry.

    Sui Network Experiences Another Outage

    The Sui Network experienced another period of downtime. The blockchain was offline for nearly six hours on Thursday. This is not the first time the network has experienced such an outage.

  • Dogecoin Bulls Struggle Amid Whale Activity, Capitulation Signals

    Dogecoin Bulls Struggle Amid Whale Activity, Capitulation Signals

    Dogecoin Shows Signs of Valuation Stress

    Dogecoin is exhibiting classic signs of valuation stress, according to an analysis by Alphractal AI. The analysis suggests that Dogecoin bulls are missing a crucial element for a sustained rally: stronger support from large holders, often referred to as “whales.”

    At the time of the analysis, Dogecoin was trading at $0.099, with a market capitalization of $15.48 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.06 billion. The asset ranked ninth by market cap, but its overall performance profile remained under pressure. While DOGE was up 2% over 24 hours, it was still down 5.96% over seven days, 4.28% over 30 days, 30.82% year-to-date, and 54.39% over one year.

    Whale Data Weakens Dogecoin’s Recovery Case

    A key concern is the positioning of large holders. Alphractal’s data indicates a whale-versus-retail delta of -0.2464 and a whale-versus-retail ratio of 0.8963, suggesting that larger players are not leading the price movement. The report describes the situation as “mixed but fragile,” noting that funding remains subdued and whale behavior does not confirm a strong bullish trend.

    The analysis stated, “Funding is only 0.01%, so leverage is not overheated, but the negative whale-vs-retail delta suggests larger players are less aggressive than smaller participants. That weakens the quality of bullish positioning.”

    The depressed valuation metrics could otherwise make the asset appear attractive to dip buyers. However, a market can trade below the aggregate cost basis for extended periods if larger holders are not accumulating or if exchange supply remains elevated. In Dogecoin’s case, exchange reserves totaled 28.26 billion DOGE, worth approximately $2.77 billion, with balances rising 0.45% over seven days. Alphractal considers this “mildly negative” because it suggests that available sell-side supply is not being aggressively moved into long-term storage.

    Capitulation Signals Are Clear, But Not Enough

    Dogecoin’s valuation profile presents some constructive aspects, albeit with caveats. The asset’s realized price was $0.12929, placing the spot price 22.99% below the average holder cost basis. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio was 0.7754, while the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) came in at -0.2897, indicating a capitulation regime.

    Alphractal noted, “The exact numbers show a market with capitulation-type holder conditions, subpar trend strength, and limited broad user participation, even though larger on-chain value transfer has improved. The clearest conclusion is this: DOGE looks cheaper than its average holder cost basis, but not structurally strong yet.”

    Dogecoin’s technical structure also remains weak. The token traded 13.46% below its 200-day moving average, with the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still bearish. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings were near 40 on both the 24-hour and weekly timeframes, indicating weak momentum but not necessarily extreme exhaustion.

    The moving-average picture was mixed but largely negative. Dogecoin traded below its 12-day, 21-day, and 50-day moving averages, while sitting only 1.37% above its 100-day average. This keeps the broader trend tilted bearish despite the 24-hour bounce.

    Derivatives data did not show excessive leverage, but it also failed to show a strong return of speculative interest. Open interest stood at $907.32 million, up 0.57% over 24 hours but down 7.82% over seven days. Alphractal stated that leverage has stabilized in the short term, while the longer-term open interest trend remains negative.

    On-Chain Value Moves, But Participation Lags

    One of the few improving signals came from adjusted transfer volume, which rose 32.52% in one day and 57.64% over seven days to $213.59 million. However, this increase was not matched by broader network participation. Active addresses fell 3.90% daily and 3.36% weekly, while the transaction count dropped 8.37% over seven days. This divergence suggests larger-value transfers rather than broad retail re-engagement.

    For Dogecoin’s recovery to strengthen, Alphractal’s framework points to a healthier combination: rising active addresses, falling exchange reserves, improving long-term open interest, and a momentum shift back above key trend levels. Until these conditions are met, Dogecoin remains in a challenging position. The data suggests the asset is undervalued relative to the holder cost basis, but the whale signal is not yet strong enough to validate a sustained recovery.